CRIER'S CORNER - FOR READING PURPOSES ONLY! - SR CREW - SEPEMBER 10, 2010

CRIER'S CORNER - FOR READING PURPOSES ONLY!

Written by: SR Crew
Date posted: 9/10/2010

CRIER’S CORNER: BALONEY HANDICAPPERS!

"One so-called handicapper, when recently interviewed said: 'I’ve been handicapping since I was about 13 when I used to grab the newspaper and pull out the sports section and see the lines in the paper and circle the teams that I thought would win…'

He calls that handicapping? That’s like calling walking “crawling.” That’s like calling running “walking.” That’s like calling sucking on a lollipop “eating.”

It’s always amazing how out of touch so many so-called professional handicappers can be about the process that they are self-proclaimed experts at performing. The same guy, now with a grown-up perspective, nevertheless said, 'Having all the information is what makes the handicapper succesful.' Not true. Ten different people can have 'all the information', but then make 10 different sets of wagers based on the same information. Some of those 10 sets of wagers will have some sides in common. Some of those 10 sets of wagers will have sides that conflict. Some of the 10 people will choose a side in a game that won’t be appealing, one side or the other, to some of the others.

Decisions, decisions. They still have to be made once “all the information” is out there.

The first key to being successful is knowing the teams’ personnel, systems, tendencies, and coaches. As other information materializes, it is important to be good at filtering and prioritizing it, and anticipating how, if at all, the situation(s) is affected by said information.

Meanwhile, the sportsbooks have access to the same information as anyone else out there, buy their lines from oddsmaking outfits or have a guy in-house to set the lines, and then bettors bet into the lines while the book has something called a 10% vig as its edge. The lines are always right.

The linemaker starts them via a very nice formula based on very accessible figures. The books may or may not tweak them a little bit based on what they know about customer tendencies, and then the betting public’s money changes them a little more to form lines that are never ‘bad.’ Phony baloney handicappers who want to pass themselves off as wise guys think that bookmakers make ‘bad lines'. They do not. Bookmakers like to say that they make sharp lines. They do not. They offer lines, plain and simple. The lines are what they are, and they are always right.

After the wagering is done and the match-ups are fought to conclusion on the field, results are destined to fall a certain distance away from the line, from 0 to about 50 points. In College Football, the median game-result margin vs. the spread, from the latest 10-year sampling of nearly 7,000 games, is actually 10 points. (For games with a line of “3,” the median game-result margin vs. the spread is 8. For games with a line of “7,” the median game-result margin vs. the spread is 10.


Below is a table displaying 10-year results for College Football margins vs. the spread. In it, you’ll notice that there are slightly more games that land from 15 to 21 points away from the spread than there are games that land from a push to 2.5 points away from the spread. Let’s go find those S.O.B.-ing blowout affairs and not have to worry about getting lucky to win nail-biters!”


Margin vs. Spread Game Count Frequency


Push, .5 - 422, 6.1%
1, 1.5 - 334, 4.8%
2, 2.5 - 328, 4.7%
3, 3.5 - 369, 5.3%
4, 4.5 - 366, 5.3%
5, 5.5 - 331, 4.8%
6, 6.5 - 329, 4.8%
7, 7.5 - 310, 4.5%
8, 8.5 - 295, 4.3%
9, 9.5 - 300, 4.3%
10, 10.5 - 285, 4.1%
11, 11.5 - 260, 3.8%
12, 12.5 - 232, 3.4%
13 13.5 - 239, 3.5%
14, 14.5 - 265, 3.8%
15, 15.5 - 221, 3.2%
16,16.5 - 167, 2.4%
17, 17.5 - 202, 2.9%
18, 18.5 - 160, 2.3%
19, 19.5 - 150, 2.2%
20, 20.5 - 147, 2.1%
21, 21.5 - 137, 2.0%
22 and up - 1,058, 15.4%


TOTAL 6,907 -…, 100% END.


LOCAL GAMES OF INTEREST

Last week's local games were 4-0 SU and ATS, although they are not meant to be wagered. They are for reading purposes only. Add to that, Thursday's SU/ATS win with the Saints and things are off to a very healthy start.

Below are the SR Crew write-ups on games of local interest for reading purposes only:


SATURDAY'S GAMES

FLORIDA STATE at OKLAHOMA* 

People still think that the offenses of Oklahoma and Texas can be scoring 40+ and 50+ at will despite the fact that their way-above average quarterbacks have moved on. They can have their Landry Jones against a foe like Florida State (or their Garrett Gilbert against Rice, for that matter).

Our "Zone Blitz" called for the Sooners to have a tough go of it early this season, then improve against their Big 12 schedule. Failure to bury Utah State was not supposed to be part of those struggles. Jones completed less than 50% of his passes last Saturday. At Miami-FL last season, the Sooners got 153 rushing yards, picked off two passes to be +1 in TO Ratio, and still lost by 1 point.

FSU quarterback Ponder is entering his third season as a starter and comes off a season completing 68.8%. He sees that Oklahoma allowed 341 passing yards to Utah State and is pumped to get out there with his fine array of playmakers. FLORIDA STATE, 30-26.


WYOMING at TEXAS*

Wyoming coach Christensen knows Texas from his days at Mizzou…so the second-year head coach understands his personnel disadvantage. For that reason, he’ll have his boys soak up Austin, but he won’t risk the long-term health of his play-making QB Carta-Samuels…especially with Boise coming to Laramie next week.

The Longhorns ran it 46 times vs. Rice at only a 4.3 per attempt and will try again to rev up the running game against an opponent who is in the midst of a switch to a 4-3 defense. TEXAS, 35-9.


LOUISIANA TECH at TEXAS A&M*

The new head coach at La. Tech faced A&M twice as offensive coordinator of Texas Tech, losing 43-25 and winning 52-30, but wishes he had the right tools here to at least compete in a shootout. Given what the old coach left him on the offensive side of the ball, implosion could be pending. Texas A&M’s offense usually lights up lower-conference defenses, true to their nature of being best at bullying. TEXAS A&M, 38-17.


BUFFALO at BAYLOR*

In this battle of Wall St. between Bulls and Bears, Buffalo is a buy….Baylor is held at neutral. Home team QB Griffin is a ridiculous talent, but without a great o-line, a solid Buffalo defense will keep him in relative check.

First-year lead Bull Quinn brought the spread with him from Cincinnati, so his defense will be somewhat used to it. As for that spread, they could struggle early, and that is the only thing keeping us from backing the roadie here. Buffalo will be able to control the ball via the passing game and every second that happens it is another second where Griffin doesn’t have the ball in his hands. BAYLOR, 31-19.


TEXAS TECH at NEW MEXICO*


It looked like New Mexicoma vs. Oregon, as the Ducks rolled up 720 yards and 72 points. New Mexico returns home bruised, but they’re home. Plus, Texas Tech will come off of a short week after playing SMU on Sunday.

Transition defines the Red Raiders, as the coaching staff turned over, requiring the offensive line to learn new schemes in the short off-season. New Mexico’s defensive front is nowhere near as bad as it played last week. They gave up a respectable 3.9 yards per carry last year and are more experienced this year. Offensively, the Lobos won’t blow doors, but they should find some space against a defense that is only in game two of their switch to a 3-4 scheme. TEXAS TECH, 37-16.


RICE at NORTH TEXAS* (please see "Millionaire" section below)


SUNDAY'S GAMES



INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON*

Year in and year out, changes abound in the NFL, except for Peyton Manning’s ability to dissect opposing defenses and win games and dominate the Houston Texans. The Colts are 15-1 against Houston in their last 16 meetings and Houston coach Gary Kubiak has lost six in a row against their AFC South rivals – not exactly a confidence-inspiring statistic heading into the season opener.

The Texans are saying all the right things about coming out strong against a longtime oppressor, but have they considered the fact that the Colts enter 2010 the angriest they’ve been in a long time? Blowing the Super Bowl ruined Peyton of the opportunity to cement his legacy as the greatest quarterback of the modern era, and despite his overall excellence, questions still linger about his ability to rise to the occasion in big games.

In other words, Manning and company will be on a mission to get back to the promised land, and what better foil than the team they’ve dominated throughout their existence? Until Houston proves otherwise, there’s no reason to gamble on them. INDIANAPOLIS, 27-19.


OAKLAND at TENNESSEE*

The Titans were a nice team in 2008, but 2009 was a different story. The departure of Albert Haynesworth and defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz showed on the field and in the statistics, as the Titans went from allowing 14.5 points per game to 25.1. Despite the statistical downturn on defense, note that the Titans went from a +14 turnover margin in 2008 to a –4 in 2009, a negative swing of -18 turnovers.

With a clean-up job by the offense, expect better play and more games covered by Tennessee. The Raiders received off-season praise for conducting business as if owned by an astute businessman and not the infamously mercurial Al Davis, but it’s time for those on-paper upgrades to prove themselves on the field.

The Raiders also suffered from untimely turnovers last year, and should see some improvement in that area, but nothing could be a bigger improvement than switching from a codeine-addicted, overweight JaMarcus Russell, to the merely underachieving Jason Campbell. It’s testament to Russell’s awfulness that Campbell – Washington’s ex-anchor -- is considered such a huge upgrade. TENNESSEE, 20-13.


DALLAS at WASHINGTON*


The Broncos were 15-32-1, 32% ATS in Mike Shanahan’s last three seasons. Against a more together Eagles team last season, the Cowboys beat new Washington quarterback Donovan McNabb three times, with McNabb’s passer ratings 61.4, 74.2, and 68.5.

Redskins’ tight end Chris Cooley, on McNabb. “People don't understand how much of an adjustment this is for him. He's working with a new line, new receivers, new running backs and a new system. He went from doing things one way for a long time to making a lot of changes. It takes time.” Dude, thanks for the heads-up. Change in Washington? Ha-ha. DALLAS, 21-13.

WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE?

Last week's Millionaire games won pretty handily (2-0), as did Thursday night's Under on the Central Michigan-Temple game.


SATURDAY'S GAMES


NORTH TEXAS* (-2.5) over RICE


“The best thing about the game is that it’s over”, said Clemson coach Dabo Swinney after his Tigers played North Texas in Clemson last week. But coach, you won 35-10 and covered a 3 TD number. What gives? The Mean Green were true to their name and played the Tigers tough. UNT held a whopping 23-minute advantage in time of possession and ran 86 offensive plays to Clemson’s 46. That’s a testament to their offense’s ability to move the ball and pick up first downs (25 for the game) against a good ACC defense.

Now they get a far less stingy Rice D that runs a 4-2-5 that can be pushed off of the ball. Yes – they did hold Texas to just 4.3 yards per carry last week – but the ‘Horns haven’t been able to run the ball without a mobile QB in years. North Texas boasts a tough, veteran offensive line and a tailback in Dunbar who went for 1,400 yards and 6.9 yards per carry last year. That’s totin’ it.


Speaking of that Texas game – the 34-17 final outcome was respectable and Rice covered the number by nearly 2 TDs. A deep dive reveals that the Owls first TD came on a tip-drill reception as time was expiring in the first half. The second TD came late in the game and was the result of great field position after Texas muffed a punt. Not exactly your run-of-the-mill scores. What did Longhorn coach Mack Brown think about the game? “I felt like it should have been 45-7 or 51-7. But you gotta give Rice credit.” Now there’s a ringing endorsement. Bottom line is that North Texas will control the offensive line of scrimmage with the running game and that’ll open up the pass against a very suspect secondary. Let’s not forget that the last time these teams played in 2008, Rice bowled the Mean Green, 77-20, in Houston. UNT coach Dodge has this game circled in permanent ink. NORTH TEXAS, 38-24.


DUKE (+6) over WAKE FOREST*

No, we did not jump in the Delorean and jump to January 22, 2011, when Duke takes on Wake on the hardwood. This is all gridiron. Despite losing ten straight to the Deacs, the Blue Devils have outgained their in-state nemesis in seven of those ten losses. In other words – the games are always competitive.

In years past, Wake had the experience edge – using a red-shirting strategy to build an army of 5th-year senior starters. That experience edge is starting to shift. It is Duke who brings back 15 starters from a year ago and it is Wake Forest that played two true freshman cornerbacks in the first quarter and who used a true freshman as their 2nd string QB last week vs. Presbyterian. In coach Jim Grobe’s 10 years on campus in Winston-Salem, he has never played more than three true freshmen in an entire season. Hmmm…makes you wonder a bit about the talent on this year’s roster.


Well, the Devils definitely have talent on offense and they’ll push their opponent here. Under the tutelage of QB guru David Cutcliffe, who coached both Manning brothers…yes – those Mannings. Duke QB Renfree was 31-of-39 for 350 yards last week vs. Elon. Now Elon is not D-1, but they are arguably top 10 in the FCS, compared to Presbyterian who was 0-12 last season, getting smoked by Elon, 41-7. Renfree has a stable of experienced and talented wide receivers at his disposal.

The Deacs had some trouble with coverage breakdowns vs. lowly Presby last week – likely a function of their youth. As for the running game, Duke will be better this season. As back Desmond Scott noted this week, “We worked very hard, and it showed that we worked hard.”

On defense, Duke’s weakness is their secondary, but none of Wake’s QBs had completed a pass until last week and none of them looked comfortable passing the ball in spring or fall practice. Grobe quipped this week that, “We are going to be at least a two-quarterback system for a while.” At least two? Sounds like somebody ain’t too comfortable with the current situation behind center. DUKE, 28-21.


WISCONSIN* (-37.5) over SAN JOSE STATE


Given last week’s 11:05 PM Eastern start time, most folks didn’t see Wisconsin’s game vs. UNLV, and those that did watched it via scoreboard crawl…”Wisconsin 17, UNLV 14 – halftime”….”Wisconsin 41 UNLV 21 – final”. Wisky pushed a 20-point number, but you cannot always judge a game by its cover.

With a minute to go in the first half, Wisconsin had 270 yards to UNLV’s minus four. A pick six and a fumble return set up Vegas’ scores. Wisky dominated, and continued to dominate in the 2nd half. Vegas ain’t great – but they’re much better and bigger than the Spartans of San Jose St., who got beat up in T-Town by 'Bama just last Saturday.

The Spartan defensive front averages just 264 pounds per man – small by D-1 standards. Compare that to Wisky’s o-line that averages 6'5", 324 pounds. That’s 1,620 pounds of man blocking for a running back rotation that rivals any in the land. Wisconsin coach Bielemma wants to get his three primary backs touches, and that means that you’ll see plenty of second-half offense and scoring from the Badgers. Third-string back James White could lead them in rushing this game after the other two (Clay, Ball) hang it up for the day.

Senior left tackle Carimi said of White this week, “White, he’s a big curveball because people are used to having to get down and tackle someone who is heavy and so much bigger than them. All of a sudden you get a little James White in there, and poof, you’ve got a 20-yard sprint. It’s awesome.” Hard to tell those backups to stop at the goal line just because the score is out of hand. As for the SJSU offense – their lack of playmakers was evident in a seven first down performance against a re-built Bama D. It’ll be more of the same in Madison and don’t be surprised if the visitor’s coaching staff pulls starters early to keep them healthy for more winnable games down the road. WISCONSIN, 54-7.


DETROIT (+6.5) over CHICAGO*
 This is an upgrade from the main SR weekly. Because, well, why not take the full cut against the Bears in their first real game playing with Mike Martz as offensive coordinator? Jay Cutler threw four interceptions in his first real game with the Bears under a different offensive coordinator last year. With Martz’s offense calling for more five- and seven-step drops, it seems reasonable to expect the Lions to have more time to get to Cutler, who is still on shaky ground with the offensive line and receivers.

With “stuff like that in mind,” according to defensive end Kyle VandenBosch, the Lions upgraded their pass rush this off-season. One of the upgrades was VandenBosch himself, along with likely rookie sensation Ndamakong Suh at tackle. "The emphasis for this organization and this defense has been to build a strong defensive line, an aggressive defensive line that can get pressure on first, second, or third down," Vanden Bosch said. "That's what the expectations are, and regardless of who we play, that's what we expect to do."


Jeff Backus, the Lions’ left tackle, played two seasons for the Lions in Martz’ offense when Martz was Detroit’s offensive coordinator. On Wednesday, Detroit writers informed him that some members of the Lions’ “new-look” defensive line were looking forward to playing against Martz’s offense in this game. Backus’ response: “They should be. Because if they’re doing the same things they did when he was here, they’re going to have time to get to the quarterback.”

Said new Lions defensive tackle Corey Williams: “We’re hoping to get in the backfield a lot.” Williams, who has played against this offense with Green Bay against Detroit, is returning to his preferred “3 technique” after being used differently with Cleveland. With so many new players on a D-line targeted for more pressure, Chicago’s offensive line should have its hands more than full trying to hold the fort under these conditions. DETROIT, 26-20.


SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE* (UNDER 37)
 

"In the last 17 years, only 46.3% of NFL Week 1 games have landed Over the Total. As you are probably aware, Week 1 in the NFL has been known for low-scoring games. In only one season from 2000-2009 could you have shown a profit betting all Week 1 games to go Over (2002). Since the 2000 season, Week 1 games have been Under 57.6% of the time.

Scouting around the 13 games for Sunday, this seems like one of the best chances to be one of those. First of all, although not the most important reason, the weather forecast for Seattle says 50% chance of rain. That would be nice, but perhaps not necessary.


First-season Seahawks' head coach, Pete Carroll, has been telling anyone who will listen that the Seahawks will be running the ball and playing defense. If Carroll was known for being completely honest, he might still be coaching USC. But he is probably being on the level with this one. The Seahawks ran the ball on only 39.6% of offensive plays last season. Their offense wasn’t necessarily designed for that percentage, but that’s how it shook out, which was not good.

So Carroll, a defensive-minded fellow, will do what defensive coordinators do when they are head coaches of losing teams – get conservative to cut down on offensive mistakes, and emphasize field position while shortening games and being in them with a chance to win them in the fourth quarter. (This is how 49ers’ head coach Mike Singletary has envisioned football in his dreams, and in real life, for the last 30 years.)

But the offense figures to be hampered by playing its first game with a new coaching staff against a good 49ers’ defense, with some very notable offensive line issues. The #1 draft choice Russell Okung is out with a high ankle sprain and Ray Willis is on injured reserve following knee surgery. Therefore, the left tackle position will be manned by Chester Pitts and/or Tyler Polumbus. Carroll doesn’t even know Polumbus’ name. He called him “Troy” in a press conference this week, and the player was only acquired in a trade last week.

Meanwhile, Pitts is coming back from microfracture surgery and did not play in the pre-season. “We’re a little banged up, obviously,” Carroll said. “We expected to have Russell going for us in the first game when we drafted him.” Mike Gibson, with only three NFL starts, starts at left guard over veteran Ben Hamilton, who he beat out in the pre-season. The line will suddenly be coached by Pat Ruel, not Alex Gibbs, who retired this week. It’s fair to speculate that Gibbs retired because the line needed more time and attention than he wanted to give it at this stage of his life.


From the San Francisco perspective, the offensive line situation is also, ahem… interesting. Improving it was their primary off-season purpose. Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati were drafted in May and named starters in August. With rookies starting on both sides of the line (RT, LG), the 49ers also have a new center, David Bass, a situation forced by injury. This will be Bass’ first start at the position. All of these guys, in states of relative inexperience, must deal with the infamous crowd noise in Seattle that is known to help create false starts and general miscommunication among offensive linemen and quarterbacks. As if the 49ers’ offense needed any more obstacles in its path besides itself. This unit, as you probably know, has a lot to prove after generating only 15 first downs per game last season, with the NFL’s highest percentage of “3-and-out” series.


The Seahawks’ new General Manager is the ex-49ers’ GM Scot McCloughan, who had a “parting of the ways” with the San Francisco organization in March. McCloughan has been signing every 49ers’ castoff he can get his hands on, including RB Michael Robinson, and 49ers’ head coach Mike Singletary knows why. “Robinson,” he says, “knows our offense as well as anybody.” SAN FRANCISCO, 13-10.

NEWSLETTER RESULTS!

For those of you who were brave enough to sign up to get the free weekly SR newsletter and actually played and followed the rules, your results should have been the same as or close to the Crier's results depending on your lines compared to the Crier's. The Crier's results were 11-4 ATS for a profit of +12.5 units.

Week #1 (using Crier’s lines):

Date W/L Team Line Opponent Amt. Of Play Final Score

Sept. 4 W Michigan State* -23.5 Western Michigan BB 38-14
Sept. 4 W Western Michigan Over 51.5 Michigan State* RP 38+14=52
Sept. 4 W Colorado (N) -11.5 Colorado State SBB 24-3
Sept. 4 W Mississippi State* -21 Memphis BB 49-7
Sept. 4 W Rice (N) +31 Texas RP 17-34
Sept. 4 W Purdue Under 55 Notre Dame* SBB 12+23=35
Sept. 4 W Connecticut Under 54 Michigan* BB 10+30=40
Sept. 4 W Louisville Under 49.5 Kentucky RP 23+16=39
Sept. 4 L  Akron* +7.5 Syracuse RP 3-29
Sept. 4 L Washington +2 BYU* RP 17-23
Sept. 4 W Alabama* -37 San Jose State RP 48-3
Sept. 4 W Fresno State* -2 Cincinnati RP 28-14
Sept. 4 W Wisconsin -19.5 UNLV* RP 41-21
Sept. 4 L Troy* -14 Bowling Green BB 30-27
Sept. 5 L Tulsa -7.5 East Carolina* RP 49-51

SBB - Super Best Bet (3 units)
BB - Best Bet (2 units)
RP - Regular Play (1 unit)

College Football Results ATS

Super Best Bets: 2-0 = 100%; +6 units
Best Bets: 3-1 = 75%; + 3.8 units
Regular Plays: 6-3 = 66.7%; +2.7 units

Season Totals: 11-4 = 73.3%; +12.5 units



SR CREW

HMW

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