CRIER'S CORNER
Written by: The Crier/SR Crew
Date Posted: 1/7/2011
HOW THE CRIER'S DOING?
After 18 weeks the blog result ATS (excludes “pushes”) for the Crier is an overall 159-109 (13-15 last week).
That's over 59% over a span of almost 270 games for all the non-believers out there.
The final five bowl games were released in Wednesday's Peanut Gallery and below is the schedule for this weekend's NFL Playoffs:
NON-MILLIONAIRE NFL PLAYOFF GAMES
SATURDAY'S GAME, JANUARY 8:
NEW ORLEANS at SEATTLE*
When you need 16 points to win a game on your home field against an opponent with receivers nobody has heard of, who act as if a ball thrown their way is a surprise they can’t handle (see St. Louis Rams at crunch time on the road), then you can win with Charlie Whitehurst.
When you’re playing an opposing offense that is piloted by Drew Brees, who burned the Seattle defense for 382 passing yards in November, you need Matt Hasselbeck, and with this Seattle team, he may not be enough. After the Saints beat the Seahawks, 34-19, in New Orleans, Brees said, “Imagine if we can get all the weapons back." Brees completed passes to 10 different receivers in that game, without running backs Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas and tight end Jeremy Shockey on the field. Even last Sunday, off a short week with post-season clinched, the Saints sat their top receiver Marques Colston, Shockey, and Thomas. The loss to Tampa Bay was essentially meaningless to them, given that Atlanta had about a 98% of beating Carolina.
The Saints, off an intentional “B” effort, are now a relatively rested team whose recently-noted “short-week” problems won’t come into play against a Seattle team that played into the night on Sunday, and is coming off a hard-fought win against a division rival in what was essentially a playoff game. What often happens when a team comes off a hard-fought win against a division rival? It loses the next game. What New Orleans has to worry about is that their defense yielded 424 total yards to Seattle in that game. Afterwards, a Seattle lineman explained that Hasselbeck had regained some freedom from Pete Carroll’s harness. "Matt works at his best with the tempo we've got and when he is able to control things at the line of scrimmage - make checks and stuff. You hate living in the past, but when he was at his best, we did a lot of our plays with him making checks. That lets him explore some of the options that we don't see, that he sees." Interesting. Almost.
Seattle’s bunch of blowout defeats is the kind of thing that can create value on teams when they play home games later in the season. Interesting, almost. NEW ORLEANS, 31-20.
SUNDAY'S GAME, JANUARY 9
BALTIMORE at KANSAS CITY*
Rockin’ Romeo Crennel, the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator, has game-planned against the Ravens twice a year for a bunch of years with Cleveland and sometimes with New England, but the Ravens’ overall passing game wasn’t what it is now.
The Chiefs have to figure out a way to contain a strong (although spotty this season) Baltimore rush offense, as well as the big arm of Joe Flacco looking for big chunks of yards to four receivers who average from 13 to 14.8 yards per catch – Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason, Todd Heap, and T.J. Houshmanzedeh. Interestingly, Heap, the tight end, has the biggest average per reception. But a big, hidden edge in the passing game is running back Ray Rice, whose 8.8 yards per catch doesn’t sound like much until you multiply it by his 63 catches. Flacco has made a nice progression in TD-INT: 14-12 as a rookie, 21-12 last season, 25-9 this season.
Kansas City quarterback Matt Cassell doesn’t stand up to Flacco on stats, but if the Chiefs can maintain their NFL-leading rushing average of 165 yards per game, then Kansas City can be in it with a chance to win it in the fourth quarter. However, that’s a big if. Baltimore’s run defense is yielding only 94 yards per game and rises to this kind of challenge – shutting down an opposing offense that until proven otherwise, is a little too one-sided on the running game.
If Cassell throws any pass somewhere over Dwayne Bowe, Ed Reed will be there to pick it off. Oh, that guy is so dangerous. The Chiefs played one of their worst offensive games of the season in last week’s 31-10 loss to the Raiders, one day after offensive coordinator Charlie Weis accepted the same position at the University of Florida (where he’ll ruin what Urban Meyer installed). Weis claims that the stinker was only a coincidence and that Florida won’t be on his mind until the Chiefs are out of the playoffs. Whatever. But he’ll need to pull a trick play or two out of the hat for this game, if the running game isn’t firing like it normally does. Jitterbug back Dexter McCluster hasn’t been heard from since returning from an injury, but he is elusive on reverses and on kick returns. BALTIMORE, 19-13.
MILLIONAIRE GAMES:
NY JETS at INDIANAPOLIS* (TOTAL UNDER 45.5)
There is a big rave about the Colts’ sudden ability to run the football. “Indianapolis has supported quarterback Peyton Manning with a suddenly dangerous ground attack that powered a four-game winning streak,” reports the Wall Street Journal. Ha. The Wall Street Journal, the same paper that publishes 3-year-performance records on stocks and mutuel funds and expects them to be meaningful and useful.
During those four games, the Colts have faced the defenses of Tennessee twice, Oakland, and Jacksonville. Oakland has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards in the NFL. Along with Jacksonville, the Raiders allow 4.5 yards per carry. Tennessee’s defense wins no awards.
The Jets are allowing 3.6 yards per carry and only 95 rushing yards per game. The Colts will be going nowhere fast against the Jets’ defense if they think they can run the ball effectively all game long, but they did get away from Peyton Manning throwing as much as 50 times a game as the season progressed. Center Jeff Saturday told the WSJ: "There has to be something that we can hang our hat on in the run game, and we are putting a lot of pressure on our receivers and quarterback to make plays and teams are feeding off that. I think just as an offensive unit, we have committed ourselves to be better in the run game. I'm not going to tell you that we are going to average 40 carries a game, but to get enough touches to make it count and mean something goes a long way."
Against Tennessee, Jacksonville and Oakland, yes, it goes a long way. Against the Jets, not so long, but it will help put the Jets in bad field position. Here are the Jets’ drive starts from last season’s AFC Championship Game, Jets at Colts:
Time Qtr. Drive Start
12:50 1 NYJ 29
05:09 1 NYJ 24
14:56 2 NYJ 20
08:44 2 NYJ 23
03:40 2 IND 29
01:13 2 NYJ 22
15:00 3 NYJ 27
08:03 3 NYJ 30
02:09 3 NYJ 11
08:52 4 NYJ 20
02:29 4 NYJ 32
01:06 4 NYJ 10
The Colts’ offense is almost always good enough to pin opposing offenses in their own territory after a punt. In last year’s title game, the Jets used a 1-play, long TD drive, some trickeration, and a Colts’ turnover to get a two-score lead in the game, as some recap notes note:
"…Mark Sanchez used a beautiful play-action fake to fool rookie cornerback Jacob Lacey. Lacey, who started in place of the injured Jerraud Powers, was burned for an 80-yard TD pass by Braylon Edwards giving the Jets a 7-3 lead.”
“…After the Colts cut it to 7-6, Jets receiver Brad Smith lined up in the TigerCat formation and connected with Jerricho Cotchery for a 45-yard pass to the Colts 12. It was Smith's first career completion out of an offensive formation. Three plays later, Sanchez barely avoided a sack and found Dustin Keller for a 9-yard TD pass to give the Jets a 14-6 lead with 4:53 to go in the half…The Jets made it 17-6 after Joseph Addai's fumble set up Jay Feely's 48-yard field goal.”
What is the likelihood of the Jets being able to pull off three unorthodox-drive scores in the first half against the Colts again? Slim. Each defense is a little fresher than it was in the ’09 Championship Game, this being Week 18, not Week 20. The Jets did an even better job in handing Indy tough field position in the Championship Game, as the Colts began zero drives in Jets’ territory. Indianapolis’ best drive-start prior to their final possession of the game was their own 43-yard-line, but only after the Jet-dope kicker got his big-game Jet on, and missed a field goal. NY JETS, 19-17.
SUNDAY'S GAME, JANUARY 9:
GREEN BAY (+2.5) over PHILADELPHIA*
The Eagles are not a veteran team. The Packers were one of the youngest teams in the NFL a couple of years ago, but have matured into a plucky, resilient bunch. The big, 59-point outburst by Philadelphia against Washington in a Monday Night romp had everyone climbing over each other to proclaim the Eagles’ offense as the most incredible thing that ever happened, and Michael Vick as the latest superhuman who, in reality, is not. Great talent, improved quarterback, and a tough guy to hold down in a one-game showdown, but not invincible.
The Eagles come into this particular game off two losses, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but both were on this field, and defensive players kept getting injured. “Injuries Have Eagles Painted Into Corner,” said a recent headline at philly.com. In the story, defensive coordinator Sean McDermott had this to say:
"I come from Jim Johnson's system. With so many new players, you can't just say, 'Hey, we've always run this blitz - run this blitz.' Because those players don't know those blitzes. There's a period of acclimation that comes into play, so you want to get the players as comfortable as possible. And the execution. It's great to come up with all of these different schemes and everything, but what can these players execute? A lot of these players are in their first playoff games in the NFL. If you had veteran players, you can bank on them being comfortable in an NFL game and then they can execute whatever you draw up.”
While Philly has the NFC’s most interceptions (23), they have also allowed 30 TD passes. Other than the Colts, the Eagles are allowing more points per game than anyone else in the post-season. When a defense that allows too many yards and points via the pass is playing against the pass offense of Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay, whose quick and strong receivers have the most yards after the catch in the NFL, the offense may not be able to outscore the other team when this other team, as listed on our Web Site’s home page, has the NFL’s best defensive points differential.
Dom Capers’ Green Bay defensive unit has yielded -6.3 points per game fewer than their opponents have scored. And they don’t want to hear about defensive injuries, because they’ve posted that strong differential in the wake of many of them. What often happens when a team is off a hard-fought win against a division rival? They lose the next game. But in this case, we’ll make an exception. GREEN BAY, 30-22.
NEWSLETTER RESULTS - Week #18
Week #18 resulted in a small loss for the Crier, as he dropped 1.6 units going 11-12 ATS. For the first 18 weeks of the season, the record is now 208-134 (over 60% for the mathematically-challenged) for a cumulative profit of 102.4 units.
By playing the newsletter games, your results should have been the same as or close to the Crier's results depending on your lines compared to the Crier's with maybe a 5-10% margin of difference, either way.
For those smart and lucky ones who have been receiving and following the Crier's selections, NFL Playoff coverage will continue through the Super Bowl. And for those of you who have been getting basketball action through daily e-mails from the Crier, you're doubling your fun and your pleasure.
Good Luck, as we continue in the backstretch of the football season playing with a lot of "house money". Last week's newsletter results follow:
Week #18 (using Crier’s lines):
Date W/L Team Line Opponent Amt. Of Play Final Score
12/28 W Iowa (N) +2.5 Missouri RP 27-24
12/29 L East Carolina (N) +7 Maryland RP 20-51
12/29 L Baylor (N) -1 Illinois BB 14-38
12/29 L Arizona (N) +5 Oklahoma State BB 10-36
12/30 L Kansas State (N) Pick ‘em Syracuse BB 34-36
12/30 W North Carolina (N) -2 Tennessee RP 30-27
12/30 W Washington (N) +14 Nebraska RP 19-7
12/31 L Miami FL (N) -3 Notre Dame RP 17-33
12/31 L South Carolina (N) -2.5 Florida State RP 17-26
1/1 W Northwestern (N) +9.5 Texas Tech BB 38-45
1/1 W Florida (N) -7 Penn State BB 37-24
1/1 L Michigan State (N) +10 Alabama RP 7-49
1/1 W Wisconsin (N) +3 TCU RP 19-21
1/1 W Oklahoma (N) -16.5 Connecticut RP 48-20
1/2 W New England* -4.5 Miami RP 38-7
1/2 L Jacksonville -2.5 Houston* RP 17-34
1/2 W Pittsburgh -5 Cleveland* RP 41-9
1/2 L Baltimore* -10.5 Cincinnati BB 13-7
1/2 W Detroit* -2.5 Minnesota BB 20-13
1/2 W Dallas +7 Philadelphia* SBB 14-13
1/2 L Buffalo Under 39.5 NY Jets* RP 7+38=45
1/2 L St. Louis -2.5 Seattle* RP 6-16
1/3 L Virginia Tech (N) +3.5 Stanford RP 12-40
* - Home team
N - Neutral site
SBB - Super Best Bet (3 units)
BB - Best Bet (2 units)
RP - Regular Play (1 unit)
Week #18
Type of Wager: W-L (excludes “pushes”); Profit/Loss (Cumulative in parentheses)
NFL Results ATS:
Super Best Bets: 1-0 = 100%; +3 units (2-1 = 66.7%; +2.7 units)
Best Bets: 1-1 = 50%; -.2 units (33-21 = 61.1%; +19.8 units)
Regular Plays: 2-3 = 40%; -1.3 units (36-31 = 53.7%; +1.9 units)
Week #18 Totals: 4-4 = 50%; +1.5 units (71-53 = 56.5%; +24.4 units)
College Football Results ATS:
Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 100%; 0 units (10-2 = 83.3%; +23.4 units)
Best Bets: 2-3 = 40%; -2.6 units (53-35 = 60.2%; +29 units)
Regular Plays: 5-5 = 50%; -.5 units (74-44 = 62.7%: +25.6 units)
Week #18 Totals: 7-8 = 46.7%; -3.1 units (167-110 = 60.3%; +78 units)
Total Combined NFL and College Football Results ATS:
Super Best Bets: 1-0 = 100%; +3 units (12-3 = 80%; +26.1 units)
Best Bets: 3-4 = 42.9%; -2.8 units (86-56 = 60.6%; +48.8 units)
Regular Plays: 7-8 = 46.7%; -1.8 units (110-75 = 59.5%; +27.5 units)
Week #18 Totals: 11-12 = 47.8%; -1.6 units (208-134 = 60.8%; +102.4 units)
THE CRIER/SR CREW
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