Written by: SR Crew
Date posted: 10/1/2010
LOCAL GAMES OF INTEREST
Last week's local games were 5-1 SU (22-7 cumulative) and 4-2 ATS (19-10 cumulative), although they were not meant to be wagered on. They were for reading purposes only.
For reading purposes only, below are the SR Crew write-ups on this week's games of local interest:
SATURDAY'S GAMES:
OKLAHOMA vs. TEXAS (DALLAS,TX)
“This one’s embarrassing for me”, said Mack Brown after a home loss to hobbling UCLA. Looking through the final score, Texas held the Bruins to 77 first half yards and the Horns turned it over 4 times in the first 30 minutes. Bottom line – Texas’ D will bow its neck and slow an OU offense that cannot run the football.
Defensive coordinator Muschamp will dial up the pressure and force Oklahoma QB Jones to throw a few picks. As for the Sooners’ defense, they don’t do a great job of stuffing the run, but UT cannot run it…so no worries there. Game will come down to the QBs and OU’s Jones has the arm/ability to convert 3rd and 8+…..Texas QB Gilbert does not. OKLAHOMA, 24-20.
TEXAS TECH at IOWA STATE*
Texas Tech runs an up-tempo spread passing attack, but Iowa State’s strength is their pass defense so the goings won’t be easy. ISU rolled 27-0 last week vs. Northern Iowa – so the offense is on the rebound, right? Well – we wouldn’t call 210 yards of total offense against an FCS squad rebounding. Texas Tech’s aggressive defense plus a few big plays in the passing game are the difference. TEXAS TECH, 20-13.
KANSAS at BAYLOR* (Please see "Millionare" section below)
TCU at COLORADO STATE*
CSU snapped a 12-game losing streak last week with a last second field goal vs. Idaho. Idaho! This is TCU. Before their win last week, the Rams knew they couldn’t beat the nation’s 4th ranked team…now that they won….they just won’t care as much when they get smoked. The win here for TCU isn’t important…it’s expected. What is important is that the game isn’t close or else they’ll lose some BCS Buster street cred.
Colorado State puts each game in the hands of their freshman QB Pete Thomas, who has done a pretty good job albeit against some pretty weak defenses. TCU held passing guru June Jones’ QB’s to a 14-for-35 performance last week. Needless to say, Mr. Thomas will not have a fun day. Offensively, the balanced Horned Frogs’ offense will have no problem slicing through one of the worst defenses that D-1 has to offer. TCU, 52-10.
RICE at SMU*
Rice head coach Bailiff stuck with only one quarterback last Saturday and got a 27-for-38 effort from Fanuzzi, but only 5.4 yards per attempt and 2 INTs. Rice gained only 2.9 yards per rush attempt vs. Baylor and was getting only 2.5 yards per carry on the ground before that. They just don’t seem to be there yet. SMU’s secondary is a pick-happy bunch, and coach Jones hasn’t ignored the running game (30 carries per game, 5.2 per carry) as the passing game has matured. SMU, 30-22.
BOISE STATE at NEW MEXICO STATE*
Boise is auditioning for the BCS title game every week, much to the chagrin of NMSU this week. If Boise is the lead in this act, the Aggies are the assistant to the helper who gets coffee for the other helpers. NMSU gave up over 500 yards to sometimes offensively challenged Kansas last week and is in for a 600+ yard charity event this week. BOISE STATE, 56-14.
HOUSTON IS IDLE THIS WEEK
SUNDAY'S GAMES
DENVER AT TENNESSEE*
These are two teams that have drastically different ATS records over the past three plus seasons, with the Titans having gone 40-26-1 ATS and the Broncos going 25-41-1 ATS in the same time span.
Jeff Fisher’s willingness to trust Chris Johnson with the fate of his football team – partially due to his lack of faith in Vince Young’s accuracy – makes the Titans a great proposition week after week, as a solid defense combines with a ball control offense, and arguably the best running back in football, to give the opposition fewer chances to put points on the board.
In contrast, the Broncos combine an ineffective, but aggressive defensive scheme, with an offense overwhelmingly slanted toward the pass because they lack a single running back that can dictate the opposing defense’s strategy. In other words, not exactly a great bet on a week-to-week basis.
Despite facing some slow offenses to date, the Broncos have had serious problems stopping the run – not to mention the pass. Their defensive front seven, which lacks a true difference maker, combines with a slow and old secondary which will have serious issues sealing the edge against a burner like CJ2K, who is guaranteed to receive 20+ touches and near 150 yards with ease. TENNESSEE, 38-20.
CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS* (Please see "Millionare" section below)
HOUSTON at OAKLAND*
Andre Johnson is so tough that he’s been suiting up for games with a high ankle sprain, the type of injury that usually sidelines players for several weeks. His ability to play with pain will play a huge role this week, as his mere presence will require Nnamdi Asomughua to shadow him across the field and leave space for Houston’s other receivers.
However, if by some chance Johnson is unable to play, the Texans will be left mostly reliant on Arian Foster against a fairly stout Oakland run defense. Bruce Gradkowski’s insertion into the line-up put an immediate spark into the Raiders' offense. The biggest reasons to like Oakland this week is the revenge factor, for a 29-6 loss last year (from three lost fumbles and one JaMarcus Russell), and Darren McFadden, who has become the dependable NFL running back the Raiders envisioned when they made him the #4 overall pick in 2008.
While Houston has a superficially high run defense ranking, they’ve yet to be tested by a team dedicated to the run – they won’t fare so well this week as they face a steady stream of rushes from the Oakland backfield. OAKLAND, 21-20.
DALLAS – BYE WEEK
WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE?
Last week's Millionaire games were 4-3 ATS and are now 12-8 ATS (excludes "pushes") for the season.
$ATURDAY'$ GAME$
BAYLOR* (-9) over KANSAS
The Kansas offense faced some pretty cheesey defenses in their non-conference action: An FCS foe, Georgia Tech’s Groh-ing Pains, Southern Miss’ Run Fast and Pray Somebody Runs Into Us Brigade, and New Mexico State’s Barely There Bunch.
While Baylor isn’t necessarily known for its defense, a schemed-up 3-4 Bears stop unit figures to be the toughest assignment yet – by a big margin -- for Kansas’ wet-behind-the-ears quarterbacks, who had combined to “generate” only 4.0 yards per offensive play before the New Mexico State softie. Getting called for 8 penalties on their home field against New Mexico State was not a good sign for Kansas, because the unit will be stressed to keep pace with a Baylor offense difficult for ordinary defenses to contain because of QB Griffin’s ability to get to the edge and get upfield, along with his improved passing.
Baylor’s passing game is good enough for coach Briles to be saying, “We want to run the ball a little better,” when they’re already running the ball quite well, with a pair of change-of-pace running backs and Griffin as the dreaded “extra running back.” BAYLOR, 38-14.
GEORGIA (-4.5) over COLORADO*
The national press defines the UGA football program as “spiraling,” “out of control,” and “Vanderbilt’esque.” Ouch. That’s the perception. Reality is that Georgia is a few made plays away – without their best playmaker WR A.J. Green – from rolling into Boulder 3-1 or even better.
Against South Carolina, the Dawgs were on their way tying it up in the 3rd quarter when they fumbled inside the 5. Two weeks ago they were one play away from attempting a game-winning field goal against an Arkansas team that took Alabama to the wire. Last week in a loss to Mississippi State, Mark Richt’s team held a 221-120 yard edge at the half, but trailed 7-6 and proceeded to fall in Starkville.
Plus – the aforementioned Green steps back into the starting lineup after missing four games under suspension. Kid hasn’t been injured. He’s been taking reps with the 1st and 2nd teams each week. Green’s presence will open up the middle of the field, allowing impressive redshirt freshman QB Murray to use the tight ends more than he has to date. And don’t worry about the young signal caller faltering on the road – he’s already played in Columbia, SC and Starkville, MS.
CU runs the ball on 60% of the offensive snaps, so obviously slowing the run game is key. Despite losing 3 games, the Georgia D ranks 19th nationally yards per carry at 2.94. Those numbers include games vs. South Carolina and Mississippi State – both teams that run the football on 61%+ of their snaps, and run it rather well. The difference between the Buffs and these two SEC clubs is that CU averages a full half-yard less per carry.
So it should come as no surprise that despite playing teams that rank #80 (Hawaii) and #98 (Colorado State) in total defense in two of their three games, the Buffs average only 21 points per contest. Home team won’t reach that mark on Saturday. For those playing the “altitude card” – UGA defensive coordinator Grantham, who coached in three games vs. the Denver Broncos during his time with the Dallas Cowboys, noted “There’s nothing to it.” There is something to siding with the Dawgs this week…winning. GEORGIA, 31-14.
PITTSBURGH* (-19) over FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
FIU has performed admirably against three BCS foes – with an average margin of loss of 8.7 points per contest vs. Rutgers, A&M, and Maryland. So why is a 1-2 Pitt team that got smoked at home by 4 TDs last week vs. Miami-FL giving the Sun Belt Panthers 19 points?
Here’s why. FIU’s defensive line is super young – with 6 of the 9 of the kids, and we mean that literally, who play regularly having less than two years of experience. Coach Cristobol noted this week, “They’re being thrown in probably before their due time, but they’ve made the commitment to developing.” They performed well at home vs. a lead-footed Rutgers bunch, but on the road in the last two they’ve given up 5.1 yards per carry, including over 6 per tote at Maryland last week.
Pitt wants to do one thing in this game – power run the football. Why not, when your offensive line outweighs the defensive line by an average of 20 pounds per man. Coach Wanstedt was disgusted with his o-line play last week and sought out to find the toughest SOBs on his roster to road grate this week. Behind that line are two dynamic backs – Lewis and Graham – both who will go over 100 yards rushing in this game. The great thing about running teams giving a relatively large number is that they won’t stop running the ball….meaning that they won’t stop scoring….especially given what happened last week.
As for the road team’s offense, they only move the ball via the air and they are facing a pressuring defense that has 8 sacks in their last two games. Plus – FIU’s QB’s are hitting just 54% of their throws on the season and they may not see 50/50 this week. Wanstedt is looking at this as a toothpaste game that will eliminate the sour taste of the Miami loss. Pitt’s breath will be minty fresh when the final whistle blows. PITT, 42-10.
WASHINGTON STATE (+27) over UCLA*
The Bruins are as high as Cheech & Chong atop Mt. Everest after branding the Longhorns in Austin last week. With games at Cal and at Oregon the next two weeks, can’t blame them for letting up a bit this week vs. the Pac-10 doormat. Plus, starting QB Prince was injured again last week, has sat out of practice all week, and according to head coach Neuheisel is a Saturday decision.
If Prince plays the role of pauper, the backup throws worse than Prince and that’s hard to do. That said – UCLA runs the ball 71% of the time….but even for bad defenses like WSU’s, predictability is easier to defend. Plus – the Bruins log just 62.5 offensive plays per game and rank just 101st in total offense with Prince under center. That compares to 66 offensive plays per game and a rank of 90th in total offense for Washington State.
We’re not saying that the Cougars’ porous D is going to transform into Alabama overnight, but UCLA just doesn’t have the big-play offense to warrant giving nearly 4 TDs. The visitors’ coaching staff is also a bit more confident in their fellas this week. “We missed 32 tackles against USC last week,” one coach mentioned this week, so the fundamentals focus was in full effect this week at practice.
The Washington State offense will also play their part in the “cover”-up. QB Tuel can chuck the ball around the yard, averaging 239 yards passing per contest. They have also been working on their version of the pistol offense – the offensive scheme that UCLA borrowed from Nevada in the off-season. So far this season, the scheme has paid off in limited use for the Cougars. You’ll see more of it this week in L.A. UCLA, 33-17.
WESTERN MICHIGAN* (+3) over IDAHO
Rare Midwest trip for the Vandals, who did trip up Northern Illinois on the road last year, but that was the week following NIU’s upset of Purdue and this Idaho team isn’t up to last year’s standards. This is also the Vandals third road trip in four weeks, so somebody will be cursing the AD when the team finally steps off of the airplane.
WMU didn’t upset anybody last week – they didn’t play. So they’ve had an extra week to prep for a defense that has more holes than O.J. Simpson’s defense. Colorado State true freshman QB Thomas riddled the Idaho secondary for 386 yards last week, so Western Michigan’s Alex Carder, who is averaging 307 passing yards per contest, will have to ice his arm after this yardage fest.
Carder also has two solid options at WR with White and Nunez – two guys who Idaho will have trouble tracking. White is a particular hand full – as he is averaging 9 catches and 127 yards per game. Idaho’s offense will move the ball a bit as well behind senior QB Enderle, but the vet is being sacked an average of 4 times per contest, due to a young offensive line that is still in the incubation stage. WESTERN MICHIGAN, 31-26.
$UNDAY'$ GAME$
BALTIMORE (+1) over PITTSBURGH*
also…
BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH* (TOTAL UNDER 34)
The Steelers are 3-0 SU and ATS with a bunch of different quarterbacks who are not Ben Roethlisberger playing for them, most recently a blowout win at Tampa Bay. The Bucs have a small defense. So does Tennessee. So does Atlanta.
The Steelers have raised their rushing carries/yardage per game to 32-150 this season, from last season’s 27-108. But this increase in rushing output has been effected against three small defenses where they could certainly be expected to muscle up and power ahead nicely.
The Ravens have a bigger, tougher defense that is perpetually stingy against the run. Peyton Hillis of Cleveland rushed between the tackles for 144 yards against Baltimore’s defense last week, but the Ravens had been preparing for and expecting the advertised darters named Jerome Harrison and Josh Cribbs, one who got hurt and didn’t play, another who didn’t materialize, possibly for fear of being killed for real after the Ravens almost killed him last year.
Despite the increase in rushing yardage, the Steelers have gained 8 fewer first downs per game than last season, while logging 9 fewer offensive snaps per game. If Pittsburgh doesn’t have the ball as much, the Ravens, with Pro Bowl quality players all over the offense, will have it more. Never mind RB Ray Rice being “questionable.”
Despite a pair of 40+ yard TD passes by Charlie Batch last Sunday, the Steelers’ passing attack is averaging -124 fewer yards per game than in 2009. Against a defensive opponent of high quality, familiar with Pittsburgh’s offense, the Steelers’ offensive efficiency doesn’t figure to improve. About Batch’s “successful” deep throws last week, courtesy of some newspaper somewhere:
“…One reason QB Charlie Batch was successful despite [only] 12 completions was that he had plenty of time to sit in the pocket. The Bucs were held without a sack, against a club that allowed the second most in the NFL in 2009. [Tampa Bay] Coach Raheem Morris, also defensive coordinator, said he drew up a defensive game plan that called for a minimal pass rush, ignoring the urge to blitz or attempt creative methods of bringing pressure after such tactics worked well at Carolina…Morris said Batch's history indicated the Bucs should have protected against quick throws and draw plays, the sort of calls that can burn a defense that blitzes. The problem was, the Steelers took advantage on a couple of occasions, using the lack of pressure to get WR Mike Wallace downfield, where he caught touchdowns of 46 and 41 yards.
"I second-guessed myself (Monday), too," Morris said. "You have to. Maybe you do want to (pressure) them a little more. But the plan was, going into the game, when they play with Charlie, you see a lot of screens. There's a lot of screens, a lot of draws, a lot of (plays) where the ball is coming out of his hand quickly. "Obviously, if you blitz, you're not going to get there for those plays. So we wanted to be in position to tackle them and cover them and get them down…We tried to play smart, and they got us."
The Bucs' base defensive line could not generate effective pressure. That unit seldom does, in the current phase it is going through. Nevertheless, the Bucs’ young DBs were in position to get interceptions on both long TD passes by Batch, but somehow managed to blow them. Baltimore? They often get pressure without blitzing, and they will also blitz.
Pittsburgh’s starting center is rookie Maurkice Pouncey, who last week lined up against fellow rookies who start at defensive tackle for Tampa Bay and weigh 295 and 300 pounds. Baltimore’s d-line starters are all 5- to-11-year veterans, and DE Haloti Ngata and DT Kelly Gregg weigh 350 and 330. Gregg’s back-up at nose tackle is a 5-year vet who weighs 350 pounds. BALTIMORE, 17-3.
NEW ORLEANS* (-13.5) over CAROLINA by 35
Physical football teams give the Saints big problems. Now, where have you heard that before? Oh, that would be right here, and it eventually led to yet another of our Midweek Update play-off the Monday Night game victories, against the Saints with Atlanta last Sunday. New Orleans is now 0-7 ATS vs. Dallas, Minnesota, San Francisco, Atlanta, and Carolina since the beginning of last season.
But for several reasons, Carolina no longer seems to fit the mold of a physical football team, the kind of huge obstacle for the Saints to make a decisive margin against. Physical football teams punish opposing defenses at the line of scrimmage, hog the clock, and make first downs. The Panthers made only 16 first downs against Cincinnati last Sunday after making only 16 against Tampa Bay, and 14 against the Giants.
Physical football teams take care of the football. The Panthers lost three fumbles vs. Cincinnati last week, made four turnovers overall, and had been -4 in TO Margin in two games before all that. The Saints’ defense, as you know, gets turnovers and will tend to get more turnovers against opposing offenses that tend to turn the ball over.
Jimmy Clausen is a rookie quarterback who wasn’t worth much to Notre Dame in college, and who probably won’t be worth much to his NFL team in a noisy dome, playing from behind on an offense that will face a loaded box at the line of scrimmage while lacking the weapons to keep pace with an opposing Saints offense whose quarterback hits a high completion rate (75%) for a respectable yards per attempt (7.2).
The Panthers have completed less than 50% of their passes this season, for the NFL’s lowest yards per attempt (barely more than 5.0). NEW ORLEANS, 45-10.
NEWSLETTER RESULTS!
For those of you who were brave enough to sign up to get the free weekly SR newsletter and actually played and followed the rules, your results should have been the same as or close to the Crier's results depending on your lines compared to the Crier's.
In Week #4, the Crier went 12-10 ATS for a loss of 2.7 units. For the the first four weeks of the season, the record is 49-32 ATS for a profit of 26.5 units:
Week #4 (using Crier’s lines):
Date W/L Team Line Opponent Amt. Of Play Final Score
Sept. 25 L Northwestern* -6.5 Central Michigan RP 30-25
Sept. 25 W Michigan* -25.5 Bowling Green BB 65-21
Sept. 25 W Iowa* -28 Ball State RP 45-0
Sept. 25 L Georgia Tech* -8.5 North Carolina State RP 28-45
Sept.25 W North Carolina State Over 57.5 Georgia Tech* BB 45+28=73
Sept. 25 W Missouri* -19.5 Miami - OH RP 51-13
Sept. 25 L Oklahoma -13.5 Cincinnati* BB 31-29
Sept. 25 W Oklahoma Over 52 Cincinnati* RP 31+29=60
Sept. 25 W California +6.5 Arizona* BB 9-10
Sept. 25 W Colorado State* +7.5 Idaho RP 36-34
Sept. 25 L BYU* +4 Nevada BB 12-27
Sept. 25 W Florida* -14 Kentucky RP 48-14
Sept. 25 L South Carolina +3 Auburn* BB 27-35
Sept. 25 W North Carolina Under 44.5 Rutgers* RP 17+13=30
Sept. 25 L UTEP* -11.5 Memphis BB 16-13
Sept. 26 W Tennessee +3 NY Giants* RP 29-10
Sept. 26 W Atlanta +4 New Orleans* BB 27-24
Sept. 26 L Houston* -2.5 Dallas BB 13-27
Sept. 26 L Washington -3.5 St. Louis* BB 16-30
Sept. 26 L Jacksonville* +3 Philadelphia RP 3-28
Sept. 26 W Oakland +4.5 Arizona* RP 23-24
Sept. 26 L Miami* -2 NY Jets BB 23-31
* - Home team
N - Neutral site
SBB - Super Best Bet (3 units)
BB - Best Bet (2 units)
RP - Regular Play (1 unit)
Week #4
Type of Wager: W-L (excludes “pushes”); Profit/Loss (Cumulative in parentheses)
NFL Results ATS
Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (0-0 = 0%; 0 units)
Best Bets: 1-3 = 25%; -4.6 units (6-5 = 54.5%; +1 unit)
Regular Plays: 2-1 = 66.7%; +.9 units (8-6 = 57.1%; +1.4 units)
Week #4 Totals: 3-4 = 42.9%; -3.7 units (14-11 = 56%; +2.4 units)
College Football Results ATS
Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (4-0 = 100%; +12 units)
Best Bets: 3-4 = 42.9%; -2.8 units (13-8 = 61.9%; +8.4 units)
Regular Plays: 6-2 = 75%; +3.8 units (18-13= 58.1%: +3.7 units)
Week #4 Totals: 9-6 = 60%; +1 unit (35-21 = 62.5%; +24.1 units)
Total Combined NFL and College Football Results ATS
Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (4-0 = 100%; +12 units)
Best Bets: 4-7 = 36.4%; -7.4 units (19-13 = 59.4%; +9.4 units)
Regular Plays: 8-3 = 72.7%; +4.7 units (26-19 = 57.8%; +5.1 units)
Week #4 Totals: 12-10 = 54.5%; -2.7 units (49-32 = 60.5%; +26.5 units)
SR CREW
HMW
Email: houstonmediawatch@yahoo.com
Blog: http://www.houstonmediawatch.com/
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/lesbiancraig
Facebook Search: HMW Shelton GEORGIA (-4.5) over COLORADO*
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