CRIER'S CORNER
Written by: The Crier/SR Crew
Date posted: 11/12/2010
LOCAL GAMES OF INTEREST
Last week, local games were 5-3 SU (58-21 cumulative) and 6-2 ATS (52-25-2 cumulative), although they were not meant to be wagered on. They were for reading purposes only.
For reading purposes only, below are the SR Crew write-ups on this week's games of local interest:
FRIDAY'S GAME:
BOISE STATE at IDAHO*
Boise typically brings their A-game no matter the situation and Idaho has lots of trouble with more athletic clubs – see blowout losses to Hawaii and Nevada. For a home bunch that doesn’t move the football on the ground, the fact that the Broncos gave up just 151 yards passing vs. a Hawaii team averaging a nation’s best 395 pass yards per game should be a major cause for concern. BOISE STATE, 49-10.
SATURDAY'S GAMES:
TEXAS TECH at OKLAHOMA*
The Sooners typically explode at home after road losses and the trend should hold here. The A&M defense stoned OU three times from the one yard-line last week….so it wasn’t like Stoops’ team wasn’t moving the football. Tech found a bit of offensive balance in their upset of Mizzou last week, but they’ll be trailing throughout here meaning that the pass-happy offense that has trouble keeping the defense off the field for stretches will be in full effect. OKLAHOMA, 43-21.
TEXAS A&M at BAYLOR*
Baylor has seven wins, and no longer controls its own destiny in the Big 12 South after losing to Oklahoma State. Translation: “What bowl game do you think we’ll go to? Where’s that party at?” Art Briles teams are not noted for mental toughness. With that not going for them, and Baylor’s alleged defense charged with protecting any lead they happen to achieve, home chalk-layers would seem to have several obstacles to overcome. A&M has stayed the course and knows that if Oklahoma State loses to Texas and Oklahoma, they win the Big 12 South (providing they win out). TEXAS A&M, 31-30.
RICE at TULANE*
We Stink Bowl between teams whose offenses can move the ball well enough, and will try to maneuver through the swiss-cheese holes of moldy defenses. Only one of the teams cannot go to a bowl game this season. That team is Rice, now with seven losses. Toledo Bob is dangling that stale carrot in front of his 3-6 SU Tulane twits, whose inept offense might not make as many late-game blunders against what Rice calls a defense. TULANE, 27-21.
OKLAHOMA STATE at TEXAS*
Baylor proved that speed can beat the Texas blitz. OSU has speed. K-State proved that the power run can churn the UT defense. OSU has power. Texas QB Gilbert has proven that he isn’t ready to play D-1 football at this level. Coach Brown: What about that guy holding the clipboard? OKLAHOMA STATE, 28-24.
SAN DIEGO STATE at TCU*
Even if TCU suffers a letdown after their 40-point dismantling of Utah, SDSU doesn’t have the horses to pull a Mike Wallace and hang for 60 minutes. In their three toughest games – Mizzou, BYU, and Air Force – the Aztecs gave up over 400 yards in each. With winnable home games vs. Utah and UNLV on deck, doubt that the State coaching staff wants to get their offensive stars injured in non-winnable action. TCU, 38-11.
TULSA at HOUSTON*
C-USA West is up for grabs. Each side has two conference losses, along with SMU. Tulsa has double-revenge for two of the worst types of losses: by 40 points in ’08, and by one point in ’09. Aren’t they glad that freshmen are quarterbacking Houston instead of Case Keenum? Each defense will make one stop, maybe. Houston’s QBs might make one mistake more than Tulsa’s Kinne, who doesn’t make many. TULSA, 51-48.
SUNDAY'S GAMES:
HOUSTON at JACKSONVILLE*
The Jaguars played well on both sides of the ball against Dallas prior to their bye, showing dominance for the first time this season. Other teams have done the same against Dallas, so no biggie there.
Jack Del Rio spoke some big words about his defense in recent days, taking ownership for the team’s defensive breakdowns over the past few seasons, and vowing that this group of players has what it takes to improve. Now they face a reeling divisional rival that has lost two big games coming off their own bye week, showing the lack of toughness that has doomed Houston to mediocrity over the past few years despite all sorts of media hype.
Gary Kubiak’s Houston tenure might be reaching its conclusion in 2010, and it’s instructive to note that the Texans are a meager 1-6 SU on the road in divisional contests over the past three seasons, although that does come with a decent 4-3 ATS mark. The small spread makes covering in defeat a near-impossibility for Houston, and might also make the Jaguars a nice bargain buy against the NFL’s 32nd-ranked defense. JACKSONVILLE, 31-27.
TENNESSEE at MIAMI*
With half of the season finished, Dolphins’ quarterback Chad Henne boasts an 8-to-10 TD/INT ratio with a pathetic 2-for-13 mark on throws over 20 yards. No NFL team is going to win many games with that kind of production from the quarterback position, on the road or at home.
Miami’s much publicized problems at home have come from bad breaks and a tough schedule, but it doesn’t get any easier with Tennessee coming to town – the same Titans that lead the NFL in sacks, with 26. Tennessee has always played well on the road under Jeff Fisher and are 13-7 SU, 12-7-1 ATS over the past three seasons. Now they come equipped with a flashy new toy in Randy Moss, who somehow managed to get into the situation he most coveted, despite now being jettisoned by two teams this season. Even if Moss isn’t playing at 100%, his very presence on the field opens up the opposing defense in ways other players cannot.
At the very least, Chris Johnson will be seeing a lot more daylight with one less person in the box to stop him. It’s no coincidence that Moss played a central role on the most recent 16-0 and 15-1 teams in NFL history. Once again armed with a mobile QB in Vince Young, the Titans offense should have no problems moving the ball against a Dolphins defense that has been decidedly mediocre of late. TENNESSEE, 27-24.
DALLAS at NY GIANTS* (Please see "Millionaire" games below.)
NEW ORLEANS IS OFF THIS WEEK.
WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE?
Last week's "Millionaire" games were 3-3 ATS and are now 38-24 ATS (excludes "pushes") for the season.
$ATURDAY'$ GAME$:
COLORADO* (+2.5) over IOWA STATE
Readers may recall us saying in the newsletter this week that backing Colorado is more painful than chewing glass. So now you’re probably asking – what, are these guys masochists? No – just capitalists. Similar to the Illinois-Michigan scoring bonanza (see below), CU got torched all week by local and national media outlets for their 4th-quarter meltdown last week.
That was the straw that broke the Hawkins’ back and this week the Buffs’ coach was canned. Long-time assistant Brian Cabral was given the interim gig and he sees this as an extended interview for the permanent spot. Per Cabral, he “bleeds black and gold” and when asked if he wanted to be head coach he gave a definitive "yes". Cabral said he was “looking for the competitor” in each of his players this week, and he may just have found it. There was a sense of energy around the football team this week after the change and needless to say the CU Nation will get all this guy has for the remainder of the season.
On the football field, the Buffs need to be able to run the football to win games. Iowa State is allowing 198 rush yards per game and 4.7 yards per tote and that’s music to Colorado’s ears. CU RB Rodney Stewart went off for 175 yards and 3 TDs last week and he’ll repeat that again this week vs. the Cyclone’s light breeze of a defense.
That defense – and the offense for that matter – laid it all on the line last week in a 31-30 overtime loss to Nebraska. The win was actually in sight, as a beautifully designed 2-point conversion was blown up by a horribly underthrown pass. It’ll be tough to re-coup on the road against a team with little relevance in the college football landscape. The facts that ISU almost knocked off a Big 12 heavyweight and that Colorado wilted vs. a conference lightweight provide more value than Buffs’ backers will require. COLORADO, 31-21.
MICHIGAN at PURDUE* (TOTAL UNDER 62)
You couldn’t go 10 minutes last weekend without some college football talking head yapping about Michigan’s 67-65 3 OT win vs. Illinois. So – for a Wolverines team whose games average 73 total points coming off of a 132-point ball-game, this one will fly right through the 60s like a Dead Head, right? No way man….this total will end up in Bing Crosby’s 40s neighborhood….man.
First off, Purdue ain’t taking this game lightly. Needing two wins in three games to be bowl eligible, coach Hope said this week, “…this is a very important football game.” When asked how they win it, he continued with, “…play great defense and take care of the football. The offense has been pathetic all season, so Hope knows that he cannot let Michigan get out to a 2-score + lead.
The defensive preparation this week was tweaked accordingly. The scout team QB is usually off-limits when it comes to being tackled in practice. “But this week he is live”, said linebacker Holland, “so we can simulate tackling on the read option and the key read from the quarterback runs Michigan will do.” That Michigan QB is Denard Robinson, who is the offense’s engine, tires, steering wheel, left turn signal...you get the point. That offensive burden is starting to take its toll. After carrying the football 183 times (about 20 times per game), Robinson’s head (concussion), shoulder, and knee have kept him from finishing several games this season, including last week.
Purdue’s defense isn’t good enough to completely shut down the speedy QB, but don’t expect him to be running to daylight all game. Speaking of daylight, the weatherman is calling for a lack of it this weekend, with rain on Friday and Saturday, so the turf is bound to be a bit softer than normal. Lost in the shuffle of the Michigan score-fest card game is the fact that the Boiler offense is completely devoid of play-making and will be run by a QB getting just his second collegiate start. For a Michigan defense that has given up more ground than Germany after WWII, making tackles and getting stops is something they’ll actually get to enjoy for once. MICHIGAN, 30-17.
MISSOURI* (-12.5) over KANSAS STATE
The shine has worn off of Mizzou after back-to-back road losses, while K-State’s waxing of Texas last week helped them reach the Top 25 this week. Now let’s look at that Texas win under the microscope. Kansas State had 270 total yards, including just 9 yards passing, and Texas had over 400, yet the Wildcats purred to a 39-14 victory. That’s 6.9 yards per point, a ridiculous number. Oregon is the nation’s top scoring team and they average 10.4 yards per point.
How’d they do it? Bill Snyder’s crew picked off UT QB Gilbert five times and had scoring drives of -1, 9, and 14 yards, that’s how. Lightning won’t strike twice, especially on the road. The Missouri defense is stout and won’t have to worry about anything other than the running game.
Offensively, the Tigers have been on siesta the past two weeks – but they have a lot of athletes who can make plays. QB Gabbert is much better at home, hitting 68% of his throws in Columbia, as opposed to 57% on the road. The running game here will help him, too, as K-State ranks 113th nationally in rush yards allowed per game and yields 5.6 yards per carry. Mizzou offensive coordinator Yost noted this week that, “We’ve got to kind of get our juice back again.” We’ll call them Minute Maid after this one is over, and given Yost’s comment and the lackluster performances of the past two weeks, don’t expect him to take his foot off the gas pedal when they go up by 2 scores. MISSOURI, 34-13.
$UNDAY'$ GAME$
TAMPA BAY* (-7) over CAROLINA
Upon further review, a certain something about this match-up’s first-look analysis in the main issue bears a striking resemblance to last week’s first-look, then Midweek BEST BET selection of Arizona +8.5 at Minnesota: That certain something is the natural tendency to look at a match-up and use past failures by a team in a certain situation as reason for not playing on them – or for not going against their opponent - despite the opponent being in trouble and appearing to have only a slim chance to either overpower the team, or do some things differently with success to catch the other team off-guard.
Last week, the gist of the first-reaction was, “Ah, Arizona often gets blown out on the road, they’ve been blown out in domes and have been a lousy road team overall for a while.” Which was not going to be the case at Minnesota, and we caught ourselves to turn a throw-away out of bounds into a BEST BET winner that was winning all the way.
This week, there’s that thing about six Bucs’ comebacks led by their second-season quarterback Josh Freeman, and thinking that Tampa Bay’s typical fourth-quarter winning surge is counterintuitive to backing favoritism. It is. But none of that means that Tampa Bay is mandated to come from behind very late in this particular game. There’s also that thing about Tampa Bay being 1-10 ATS on this field since the beginning of last season: It doesn’t mean they can’t be 2-10 ATS on this field since the beginning of last season when the game is over.
The past is behind us. The future is now. Nobody knows that better than the Panthers, who are forced to start rookie Jimmy Clausen at quarterback and will be playing with rookie Tony Pike as the first back-up. Kids like Clausen and Pike look okay in the pre-season playing against second- and third-stringers in non-schemed defenses that are letting the offense dictate terms. Come the regular season and they have to start against the other team’s defensive starters who are fully-geared and matched-up? It can be a very different story.
The numbers show it so far. Clausen’s QB Rating is 48.0. In games Clausen has appeared and thrown at least seven passes, the Bucs have scored 7, 7, 14, 6, 10 and 3 points. For this game, the Panthers will be without the two running backs whose ability to control a game on the ground has long been respected by fans and bettors – DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The #3 back Tyrell Sutton is also injured.
People certainly remember the Panthers of the past sticking a third- or fourth-string tailback or fullback Brad Hoover in the backfield and still getting 150-200 rushing yards and winning. But when the team was only rushing for 86 yards per game when those guys were playing or available to play, it really doesn’t figure to improve without them, with Mike Goodson as the #1 back. Goodson is a second-year player out of Texas A&M who had to gain 30 pounds since last season to nail down this spot.
At the second wide-out position, Carolina’s two-deep is both rookies. Other than veteran go-to receiver Steve Smith, anyone who touches the ball for them after the center snaps it is a very inexperienced NFL player. An idea of how confusing it can be for all of them is that Clausen has already fumbled seven times and thrown four INTs with only one touchdown pass. The Panthers are averaging 3.3 turnovers per game. And, at this point, the circumstances they all deal with do not seem to be getting better.
Defensively, Carolina also has two new injuries at the linebacker position, as if they needed any issues on the other side of the ball. The second half of the NFL season is when bad offense really starts to take a toll on a defense that has been on the field too frequently. Carolina’s offense has generated only 14 first downs per game, fewest in the NFL. Their defensive coordinator Ron Meeks is from the Indianapolis Colts’ system and is re-tooling it to be smaller and quicker, which means that as the Bucs’ running game is gradually improving and starting center Jeff Faine returns for this game, the Panthers’ front seven is liable to hit its melting point on an 80-degree afternoon. TAMPA BAY, 27-7.
DALLAS at NY GIANTS* (TOTAL OVER 45.5)
The first meeting was 41-35. ‘They’ say that second meetings between division rivals tend to go ‘Under.’ But when Jerry Jones fired head coach Wade Phillips earlier this week, he also fired defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. The new head coach is the promoted offensive coordinator, Jason Garrett, who has no real allegiance to the promoted defensive line coach now defensive coordinator, Paul Pasqualoni.
The first indication that Garrett will hang Pasqualoni out to dry was Garrett’s first meeting with the defense since being named head coach, where he told them to “get more turnovers.” Response not heard: ‘Wheeee, we don’t have to tackle!’
The second indication he’ll hang Pasqualoni out to dry was his first week of offensive practices being more “up-tempo.” Translation: ‘I am still a hot young assistant, at least that’s what the media told everyone I was, so let’s pick up the pace and have more snaps, so that I can display more of my superior play-designing and play-calling abilities as I audition for this head-coaching job or others, and we make more mistakes than usual that help lead to points for the other team.’ It’s shootout time for the Cowboys. Most Giants-Cowboys games lately have already been shootouts when they weren’t even trying to have shootouts.
From a logistical standpoint, Garrett’s approach makes some sense. Defensive line starters Marcus Spears, and his back-up Sean Lissemore are out with leg injuries suffered Sunday night in Green Bay. Another back-up, Jason Hatcher, is expected to miss two more games with a groin injury. Dallas is down to three healthy defensive linemen: Jay Ratliff, Igor Olshansky, Josh Brent. The Cowboys’ norm under Phillips was to use a six-man rotation on the defensive line. There are no true defensive linemen on the practice squad. Giants’ offensive coordinator Gilbride to unit: ‘Let’s do a play.’ Unit to coordinator: ‘Which play, coach?’ Gilbride: ‘Any play.’ NY GIANTS, 45-30.
NEWSLETTER RESULTS - Week #10
For those of you who have believed in the Crier from Week #1, we had a small stumbling block last week, but remember that we can't beat "The Man" every week.
If Colorado didn't give up 5 TDs in the last 12 minutes of the game vs. Kansas, the Crier would have eked out a winning week. As a matter of fact, the Colorado coach was fired for not covering the spread for the Crier, which shows you the power of the Crier.
By playing the newsletter games, your results should have been the same as or close to the Crier's results depending on your lines compared to the Crier's with maybe a 5-10% margin of difference, either way.
In Week #10, the Crier went 10-11 ATS for a loss of 1.6 units. For the first ten weeks of the season, the record is now 130-82 (over 61% for the mathematically-challenged) for a profit of 67 units:
Week #10 (using Crier’s lines):
Date W/L Team Line Opponent Amt. Of Play Final Score
Nov. 6 W Louisville +6.5 Syracuse* BB 28-20
Nov. 6 W Illinois Over 57.5 Michigan* RP 65+67=132
Nov. 6 L Michigan State* -24 Minnesota RP 31-8
Nov. 6 L Florida State* -10.5 North Carolina BB 35-37
Nov. 6 W Arkansas +4.5 South Carolina* BB 41-20
Nov. 6 L Arkansas Under 59 South Carolina* BB 41+20=61
Nov. 6 L Colorado -8.5 Kansas* RP 45-52
Nov. 6 W Rice Over 63 Tulsa* RP 27+64=91
Nov. 6 W Boise State* -21 Hawaii SBB 42-7
Nov. 6 W Navy +3 East Carolina* RP 76-35
Nov. 6 L Washington +35 Oregon* RP 16-53
Nov. 6 L Texas -3.5 Kansas State* BB 14-39
Nov. 6 L Missouri -4 Texas Tech* BB 17-24
Nov. 6 L Arizona State Under 60 USC* RP 33+34=67
Nov. 6 L Florida International* -9.5 Louisiana-Monroe RP 42-35
Nov. 7 W Arizona +8.5 Minnesota* BB 24-27
Nov. 7 L Atlanta* -8 Tampa Bay BB 27-21
Nov. 7 W Baltimore* -4.5 Miami BB 26-10
Nov. 7 W Cleveland* +4.5 New England RP 34-14
Nov. 7 W NY Giants -7 Seattle* RP 41-7
Nov. 7 L Indianapolis Under 47 Philadelphia* RP 24+26=50
* - Home team
N - Neutral site
SBB - Super Best Bet (3 units)
BB - Best Bet (2 units)
RP - Regular Play (1 unit)
Week #10
Type of Wager: W-L (excludes “pushes”); Profit/Loss (Cumulative in parentheses)
NFL Results ATS
Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (0-1 = 0%; -3.3 units)
Best Bets: 2-1 = 66.7%; +1.8 units (15-13 = 53.6%; +1.4 units)
Regular Plays: 2-1 = 66.7%; +.9 units (22-16 = 57.9%; +4.4 units)
Week #10 Totals: 4-2 = 66.7%; +2.7 units (37-30 = 55.2%; +2.5 units)
College Football Results ATS
Super Best Bets: 1-0 = 0%; +3 units (8-1 = 88.9%; +20.7 units)
Best Bets: 2-4 = 33.3%; -4.8 units (38-21 = 64.4%; +29.8 units)
Regular Plays: 3-5 = 37.5%; -2.5 units (47-30 = 61.0%: +14 units)
Week #10 Totals: 6-9 = 40%; -4.3 units (93-52 = 64.1%; +64.5 units)
Total Combined NFL and College Football Results ATS
Super Best Bets: 1-0 = 100%; +3 units (8-2 = 80%; +17.4 units)
Best Bets: 4-5 = 44.4%; -3 units (53-34 = 60.9%; +31.2 units)
Regular Plays: 5-6 = 45.5%; -1.6 units (69-46 = 60%; +18.4 units)
Week #10 Totals: 10-11 = 47.6%; -1.6 units (130-82 = 61.3%; +67 units)
THE CRIER/SR CREW
HMW
Email: houstonmediawatch@yahoo.com
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