CRIER'S CORNER
Written by: The Crier/SR Crew
Date posted: 11/19/2010
LOCAL GAMES OF INTEREST
Last week, local games were 8-2 SU (66-23 cumulative) and 6-4 ATS (58-29-2 cumulative), although they were not meant to be wagered on. They were for reading purposes only.
For reading purposes only, below are the SR Crew write-ups on this week's games of local interest:
SATURDAY'S GAMES:
EAST CAROLINA at RICE*
On the C-USA road this season, East Carolina has scored 44 points at Southern Miss, 35 points at Central Florida, and 54 points at UAB. They’ve also scored 51 and 49 in two other C-USA home games. Anyone capable of scoring that many points earlier in the season is capable of scoring 60+ against Rice’s defense at this juncture, although one thing working against ECU is their own leaky defense, and the tendency of Rice’s offense to go on long, clock-eating drives (often netting 3 or 0 points instead of the desired 7). EAST CAROLINA, 44-27.
HOUSTON at SOUTHERN MISS*
Houston’s offense is going for 302 passing yards per game this season, which looks great on paper and sounds great to the ear. But when you consider that with Case Keenum under center last season, they averaged 450 passing yards per game, it’s actually 148 fewer passing yards per game, a drastic 33% decrease. Aha!
Then they have the matter of freshman quarterbacks. With last week’s 291 passing yards came five interceptions thrown by David Piland. Houston needed all of Case Keenum’s 559 passing yards in last year’s game against Southern Miss to pull out a 50-43 win with 0:21 on the clock, when Southern Miss was playing without its best quarterback, Austin Davis, currently playing very well. The Southern Miss defense isn’t great, but it’s very quick and active, and their coaching staff knows an opportunity when it sees one. Some of them also know some of the opposing coaching staff from their days in the Big 12 at Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. SOUTHERN MISS, 45-27.
OKLAHOMA at BAYLOR*
The Sooners average over 40 points at home and only 26 on the road. There is hope for a Baylor team that has a lot of offensive speed and the ability to move it via ground and air. Added bonus – Sooner starting defensive tackle Adrian Taylor was injured last week and will miss the rest of the season. Problem is that there is little margin for error as their porous defense gives out more scores than a gymnastics official. Given their ability to score, home team is a nice play if getting double-digits, but stay away if they’re only getting a TD and some change. OKLAHOMA, 38-31.
NEBRASKA at TEXAS A&M*
The stat books tells you that A&M mans a salty run defense that gives up about three yards per carry. Lost in A&M’s win over Baylor last week is the fact that the Bears put up 5.9 yards per carry and both RB Finley and QB Griffin had over 100 yards on the ground. Nebraska’s offensive scheme is different than Baylor’s, but the concept is the same. Use your running QB and some talented RBs to move the football.
Last week vs. Kansas, QB Martinez was limited early by design, as he was just getting back on the field after injuring his ankle. He was rusty, but in the second half the coaches let him do his thing and he finished with 71 yards on 11 carries. The final score of the Kansas game didn’t look impressive, but it was all about getting ready for the A&M/Colorado stretch run. A&M has won four straight and QB Tannehill has been a huge factor in the win streak. But the Aggies won’t play against a better secondary and without an effective passing game, they’ll struggle to keep pace with a team that wins the Big 12 North with a win in College Station. NEBRASKA, 36-24.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC at TEXAS*
Is it the big secret that Texas’ defense has only six interceptions after getting the ball back 25 times for the cheap-score golden boy Colt McCoy a year ago? Not to worry. The formerly Flying Schnellenbergers of FAU have regressed by 14.5 offensive snaps and 138 offensive yards per game this season vs. last. Their Run-Pass split is a run-heavy 33-28 despite a desultory 3.0 yards per carry average.
In the Sun Belt, they can crawl along and make enough first downs (15.5 per game in conference) to be reasonably competitive. Against the Longhorns’ defense, which is allowing only 17 first downs per game overall, they won’t be able to keep their alleged defense off the field and the punter might get a sore leg if the Longhorns don’t tackle him first. Texas is 2-8 ATS. Mack Brown owes his betting boosters, er, fans, a little something. The university is paying FAU $900,000 to make this trip, so FAU is going to have to give a little something of itself back on the field. TEXAS, 45-7.
SUNDAY'S GAMES:
HOUSTON at NY JETS*
Last week’s last minute collapse against Jacksonville did nothing to dispel the notion that Houston is a soft team in need of new leadership. Was Gary Kubiak even blinking on the sidelines as his team continued to fritter away whatever promise was left in the 2010 season?
Since a 2-0 start, the Texans are 2-5 SU, 1-6 ATS, looking like the worst team in a strong AFC South. A divisional game against Tennessee awaits next week, but a road trip to face the NFL’s 4th best defense has to take precedence. Will Houston be motivated by last season’s Week #1 humiliation from a visiting Jets team, making their Rex Ryan debut? All the evidence says no, especially with Darrelle Revis slowing down Andre Johnson to rob Matt Schaub of his favorite target.
Arian Foster has emerged this season as one of the NFL’s most exciting backs, but the Jets effectively bottled up the similarly explosive Peyton Hillis last week and rank 5th in the NFL with 89.6 rushing yards allowed per game. Questions about New York’s special teams, and Mark Sanchez’s injured calf, are the only things keeping this from being a stronger recommendation. NEW YORK, 24-16.
WASHINGTON at TENNESSEE* (Please see "Millionaire" games below.)
DETROIT at DALLAS*
Big, face-saving win at the familiar-and-hated division rival Giants in the first game after Wade Phillips was fired? Gotta be followed by a struggle against a less familiar foe. Lions’ journeyman jockey Sean Hill has a plethora of athletic, jump-ball seeking horses to rival the guys on the Giants who humiliated Dallas’ secondary when they weren’t accidentally on purpose stepping in front of Eli Manning’s passes last Sunday.
The Cowboys’ defensive line is very banged-up. Dallas’ chances for the rest of the season hinge on them jumping ahead of people and then trying to hold them at bay in shootouts while their defensive players hide behind tall poles and big rocks, trying to pull some surprises while giving up chunks of ground. The Detroit defensive line is in much better shape, underrated, and looking to wreak some havoc in the backfield against a Dallas quarterback who is The Face of Losing and will fumble it or throw interceptions at the slightest sign of trouble, or even when there is no trouble at all. DALLAS, 27-25.
SEATTLE at NEW ORLEANS*
The 5-4 SU, NFC West-leading Seahawks’ offense is a red-zone stalling, so-so unit that has kicked nine field goals in two wins against Arizona recently. The Cardinals have the worst passing game in the NFL, and opponents can afford to leave points on the field against them. The Saints have one of the most efficient passing attacks in the NFL.
If you are going to be settling for field goals, you will be gradually falling out of it as the game progresses. "All of our defensive stats have improved except turnovers," Saints’ DB Malcom Jenkins says. "We haven't forced as many turnovers as we would like, but at the same time we're playing well. We're keeping points off the board." And, the New Orleans secondary is getting healthier with Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter having returned to the lineup in the game that preceded their bye, from which they come out rested and perhaps ready, not flatski. NEW ORLEANS, 31-14.
WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE?
Last week's "Millionaire" games were 4-1 ATS and are now 42-25 ATS (excludes "pushes") for the season.
$ATURDAY'$ GAME$:
TROY (+22) over *SOUTH CAROLINA
Last Saturday, South Carolina fried the Florida Gators, 36-14….Troy was mauled by Florida International, 52-35. So what – is Achilles playing QB from the Men of Troy or something? Not exactly, but it is the Gamecocks Achilles Heel that will drive the cover.
The Trojans were embarrassed at home last week and despite still being in the Sun Belt Conference race, they’ll lay it all on the line this week. Head coach Blakeney noted, “We have to re-group and find a way against South Carolina.” Doesn’t sound like the strategy is to play touch football in Columbia hoping his starters don’t get hurt. As for those starters – the passing offense ranks #13 nationally in pass yards per game and WR Jernigan is tough to stop. Especially for a South Carolina defense that ranks 97th in pass defense efficiency – giving up 257 yards per game, a 65% completion rate, and 15/6 TD/INT ratio.
In their three losses this year, the home team has allowed each opposing QB to complete greater than 70% of his passes and the aggregate TD/INT ration is 7-to-1. As we noted in last week’s Best Bet winner, the Gator offense wasn’t going to push the South Carolina secondary. Troy is a different story. Spurrier was able to hide walk-on cornerback Markett last week – as the kid got his first start. Markett will be the mark this week for a Trojan offense that can go vertical.
All that said, South Carolina won’t have a lot of trouble moving the football. The Troy defense just isn’t that stout. But – Spurrier won’t ask his horse TB Lattimore to carry the day…not with rival Clemson next week and Auburn in the SEC title game in 14 days. Lattimore carried it 40 times last week and might see a fourth of those carries this week. The other backs will get the ball according to the Ole Ball Coach. “We’re gonna come out running the ball”, he said this week.
That will likely lead to longer drives and when we’re getting 3 TD’s with an offense that can score….clock killing drives aren’t the worst thing in the world. Also look for Spurrier to play freshman backup QB Connor Shaw a good bit given that Shaw will likely be senior Garcia’s replacement next year. SOUTH CAROLINA, 34-24.
OHIO STATE at IOWA (TOTAL OVER 48)
Think of Ohio State and Iowa and you think smash mouth Big Ten football, clouds of dust, physical boxing matches. Hit it Michael Buffer: let’s get ready to……OVER? In the red/garnet corner – giving up just 13.6 points per game……the Buckeyes. And in the gold/black corner – giving up just 15 points per game…..the Hawkeyes.
Closer inspection of these scoring defenses reveals stingy numbers put up against some pretty crappy offenses, where both teams were able to generate a bunch of turnovers. It has been a different story when playing the likes of: Wisconsin, a team that scored 31 against both of these clubs; Arizona, who put 34 on Iowa; and Miami-FL, who scored 24 in Columbus while turning it over a bunch. In this matchup, the QBs will drive the scoring. Hawkeye signal-caller Stanzi ranks #5 in passing efficiency and simply doesn’t turn the ball over. Buckeye QB Pryor does him one better, ranking #4 in passing efficiency. Their ability to protect the football while still making plays will be huge, – especially against the ball hawking defenses of Ohio State (17 picks) and Iowa (15 picks). Add to the fact that both teams can also run the ball effectively and you get a formula for some points.
Despite all but being eliminated from Big Ten contention last week via a bad loss to Northwestern, the Hawkeyes will come in guns blazing. On the season, the steady Iowa defense has given up 62 points in the 4th quarter, more than the 2nd and 3rd quarters combined. For that reason, coach Ferentz will be looking to exert some early speed in an attempt to avoid getting beat down the stretch. Ohio State coach Tressel knows he cannot hold back either given that they have zero room for Big Ten error if they want another conference title. He noted this week that “every play that we can possibly make, we’ve got to make.” Weatherman is calling for low 40’s and sunny skies…..we’re calling for low 60’s and lots of extra point tries. OHIO STATE, 34-28.
COLORADO* (+3) vs. KANSAS STATE
As noted last week, interim coach and long-time Buffs "guy" Brian Cabral has breathed new life into Colorado. Sure, Kansas State brings more offensive firepower to the party than last week's foe Iowa State, but the Wildcats are very one dimensional and CU dominated the line of scrimmage last week with 8 sacks and -6 yards rushing allowed. They won't be quite so prolific this week, but the arrow is pointing in the right direction.
Offensively, QB Hawkins is averaging 262 yards per game with 9 TDs to just 2 picks since coming on in relief vs. Texas Tech a few weeks back. RB Stewart is a force as well, and this week he goes against one of the worst run defenses in the nation. K-State gives up 200 per game on the ground at a 5.2 yard per carry clip. The energy in Boulder did not subside at all this week. In fact, the hopes for a bowl game are actually driving this club. This is step number two in that 3-step program. COLORADO, 33-27.
$UNDAY'$ GAME$
TENNESSEE* (-7) over WASHINGTON
When we play off the Monday Night game for fun and profit, it’s usually by going the opposite way of public perception based on the Monday Night result. For instance, being “against” the team that won, or “on” the team that lost. But there is no set-in-stone, hard-and-fast rule. That the Redskins – 59-28 losers vs. Philadelphia on Monday - had not been getting their butts kicked badly week in and week out for some time before that was kind of a mystery, wasn’t it? Now that they’ve suffered from enough exposure in some meltdowns, let’s pile on until somebody throws a penalty flag.
Headlines this week include the following helpful distractions for anyone who might have considered betting on the Titans, but is swayed by the media:
“Titans get no jump-start from Moss.”
“Titans can't find Randy Moss in ugly loss.”
Moss caught one pass for 26 yards in a 29-17 loss that followed the bye week during which Moss was acquired on waivers. Everyone expected some kind of explosion because of the new player and the extra time – as if it was so easy and that’s all there was to it, right? Miami had defended against Moss rather well during his stay with their AFC East rival New England. To compound the problem, Kerry Collins got hurt in the first half for the Titans. Vince Young had to come in and execute the game plan that was designed for Collins.
By contrast, the Redskins saw New England only once when Moss was playing there. The result was a 52-7 loss, in which Moss caught three passes for 47 yards while his presence helped Tom Brady and Matt Cassell complete 28 passes to other guys.
Vince Young got a full week of practice for this affair, after Tennessee’s off-bye defeat on the road in Miami, their second straight loss. While they certainly would like to have won that game, circumstances were working against them and the Miami defense – which faced Tennessee a year ago – was a better unit than Washington’s alleged stop unit. The Titans’ offense will be a tighter group for this outing.
Speaking of the Titans’ offense, it is coordinated by Mike Heimerdinger. He and Redskins’ head coach Mike Shanahan go way back. How far back? College roommates at Eastern Illinois, co-offensive coaches for the Florida Gators in the 1980s, a five-year stint for Heimerdinger as Denver’s receivers coach under Shanahan during two Super Bowl wins in the late 1990s. There aren’t many copies of the Mike Shanahan playbook circulating around out there, but you can rest assured that Heimerdinger has one, could have co-written it with him, and lateraled it to Tennessee defensive coordinator Chuck Cecil about three weeks ago, if not sooner.
Amazingly, the Titans and Broncos met only twice after Heimerdinger left Denver and was coaching for Tennessee: On Christmas Day, 2005, when the Titans were a 4-11 SU team going nowhere. Denver won 37-16, against, as the AP reported, “a Tennessee defense missing six starters,” and with then-#1 quarterback Steve McNair injured and out for the Titans. Then, in 2007, Denver won 34-20, taking advantage of a lousy Tennessee defense with four touchdowns of 40+ yards. In that loss, the Titans’ offense nevertheless gained 28 first downs and 423 total yards (pre-Chris Johnson) and Vince Young nevertheless threw for 305 yards.
So, in limited action against ol’ roomie, Heimerdinger has been handcuffed. Not so in this game. Shanahan’s team has the worse defense, and Shanahan’s team is force-feeding his offense to a quarterback named McNabb who isn’t making the right reads in it, and who doesn’t have much of a running game to lean on for support while he tries to figure it all out. Meanwhile, everybody is throwing it for 305 yards against the Redskins’ defense these days, and as long as that unit continues to allow 5.0 yards per rush attempt, the bad pass defense should continue.
The Titans’ coaches and players were watching that Monday Night Game while passing around the Cheez Doodles and Four-Loko, wishing they could go out and play against the Redskins the next night. Better for them to have another three days of practice to fine-tune some things, then get back on the winning track with a convincing score against a floundering opponent entering strange territory off a short week still with plenty of work to do. Are you worried about Washington nut-job DT Albert Haynesworth playing like a mad monster against his former team? Well, it’s not like Tennessee’s o-line isn’t good. TENNESSEE, 38-17.
OAKLAND at PITTSBURGH* (TOTAL UNDER 41)
Drew Brees, Tom Brady…Jason Campbell. All right, now. After facing two of the most productive quarterbacks in two of the most long-term, productive passing systems in the NFL in the last three games, with Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco, and Terrell Owens of the Bengals getting shut down for three quarters on Monday Night in between, what will Raiders’ quarterback Jason Campbell bring to the table against Pittsburgh on Sunday that Pittsburgh’s defense needs to be afraid of?
Speaking of fear, anyone who watched Campbell play quarterback for the Redskins against the Steelers on November 3, 2008 (seven sacks, 13 first downs, 161 passing yards, 2 Interceptions in a 23-6 loss) might know what’s going through his mind this week, especially as the Steelers remember surrendering 27 points to the Raiders last season when then-Oakland quarterback and Pittsburgh native Bruce Gradkowski must have sold his soul to the Devil to get numerous Pittsburgh defensive injuries to pave the way for him.
For this go-round, each side has more offensive injuries than defensive. For the Raiders, the absences of Chaz Schilens and Darius Heyward-Bey from Wednesday’s practice – following a bye week - casts serious doubt about the Raiders’ receiving corps being 100% Sunday. The Steelers have a couple of offensive line injuries, as well as injuries to the running backs behind #1 Rashard Mendenhall.
Raiders’ tight end Zach Miller returned to practice on Wednesday after missing the last game with a foot injury. He is the team's leading receiver and an important blocker in the run game. Says a Raider rooting source: “He is expected to contribute against the Steelers. He will be critical to success, as he gives Jason Campbell a reliable receiver from 5-15 yards.” Whoop-dee-doo. But at least the Raiders will use Miller to help them drive to midfield before they punt and pin Pittsburgh deep in Steelers’ territory.
The Steelers really have only one burner on their receiving cops – Mike Wallace. But for 60 minutes, or at least 30, Mike Wallace will be interviewed by one of the NFL’s best corners, Oakland’s Nnamdi Asomugha, who has resumed practicing after missing the win against the Chiefs. For Oakland’s defense, DT John Henderson also returned to practice after being out since the middle of September. The Raiders’ run defense has improved over the course of the season. It doesn’t hurt to add a healthy big body to the d-line rotation. PITTSBURGH, 25-6.
NEWSLETTER RESULTS - Week #11
In Week #11, the Crier excelled, as he went 17-6 ATS for a profit of a whopping 16.1 units. For the first eleven weeks of the season, the record is now 147-88 (over 62% for the mathematically-challenged) for a profit of 83.1 units:
By playing the newsletter games, your results should have been the same as or close to the Crier's results depending on your lines compared to the Crier's with maybe a 5-10% margin of difference, either way.
Week #11 (using Crier’s lines):
Date W/L Team Line Opponent Amt. Of Play Final Score
Nov. 9 W Northern Illinois* -11 Toledo RP 65-30
Nov. 13 W Miami FL Under 50 Georgia Tech* BB 35+10=45
Nov. 13 L Iowa -9.5 Northwestern* BB 17-21
Nov. 13 W Michigan Under 62 Purdue* BB 27+16=43
Nov. 13 W Oklahoma* -14.5 Texas Tech RP RP 45-7
Nov. 13 W South Carolina +6.5 Florida* BB 36-14
Nov. 13 W Colorado* +2.5 Iowa State BB 34-14
Nov. 13 W Eastern Michigan +18.5 Western Michigan* RP 30-45
Nov. 13 L Colorado State* +6.5 BYU RP 10-49
Nov. 13 W BYU Over 46.5 Colorado State* RP 49+10=59
Nov. 13 L Utah -5.5 Notre Dame* RP 3-28
Nov. 13 L Georgia +8.5 Auburn* BB 31-49
Nov. 13 L Missouri* -12.5 Kansas State RP 38-28
Nov. 13 W Ohio State* -18 Penn State RP 38-14
Nov. 13 W South Florida +2.5 Louisville* BB 24-21
Nov. 13 W New Mexico +33 Air Force* RP 23-48
Nov. 14 W Jacksonville* Pick ‘em Houston RP 31-24
Nov. 14 W Chicago* +1 Minnesota BB 27-13
Nov. 14 W Buffalo* -1.5 Detroit RP 14-12
Nov. 14 W NY Jets -3 Cleveland* RP 26-20
Nov. 14 W Tampa Bay* -7 Carolina BB 31-16
Nov. 14 L Kansas City -1 Denver* BB 29-49
Nov. 14 W Dallas Over 45.5 NY Giants* SBB 33+20=53
* - Home team
N - Neutral site
SBB - Super Best Bet (3 units)
BB - Best Bet (2 units)
RP - Regular Play (1 unit)
Week #11
Type of Wager: W-L (excludes “pushes”); Profit/Loss (Cumulative in parentheses)
NFL Results ATS:
Super Best Bets: 1-0 = 100%; +3 units (1-1 = 50%; -.3 units)
Best Bets: 2-1 = 66.7%; +1.8 units (17-14 = 54.8%; +3.2 units)
Regular Plays: 3-0 = 100%; +3 units (25-16 = 61.0%; +7.4 units)
Week #11 Totals: 6-1 = 85.7%; +7.8 units (43-31 = 58.1%; +10.3 units)
College Football Results ATS:
Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (8-1 = 88.9%; +20.7 units)
Best Bets: 5-2 = 71.4%; =5.6 units (43-23 = 65.2%; +35.4 units)
Regular Plays: 6-3 = 66.7%; +2.7 units (53-33 = 61.6%: +16.7 units)
Week #11 Totals: 11-5 = 68.8%; +8.3 units (104-57 = 64.6%; +72.8 units)
Total Combined NFL and College Football Results ATS:
Super Best Bets: 1-0 = 100%; +3 units (9-2 = 81.8%; +20.4 units)
Best Bets: 7-3 = 70%; +7.4 units (60-37 = 61.9%; +38.6 units)
Regular Plays: 9-3 = 75%; +5.7 units (78-49 = 62.4%; +24.1 units)
Week #11 Totals: 17-6 = 73.9%; +16.1 units (147-88 = 62.6%; +83.1 units)
THE CRIER/SR CREW
HMW
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