Written by: SR Crew
Date posted: 10/8/2010
LOCAL GAMES OF INTEREST
Last week's local games were 5-3 SU (27-10 cumulative) and 5-3 ATS (24-13 cumulative), although they were not meant to be wagered on. They were for reading purposes only.
For reading purposes only, below are the SR Crew write-ups on this week's games of local interest:
SATURDAY'S GAMES:
WYOMING at TCU*
If Wyoming put up only 266 yards last week vs. Toledo, they’ll struggle to hit the century mark this week. TCU will use their proven, winning recipe again this week: step 1 – find one bad team to play; step 2 – run the ball at will; step 3 – live in the opponent’s offensive backfield; and step 4 – mix it all together for another easy victory. TCU, 44-7.
TEXAS TECH vs. BAYLOR (at DALLAS)
Tech’s offense started to get on track last week and should continue vs. Baylor defense that hasn’t really been challenged much this year. That said, the Red Raiders' defense is a bit on the slow side and that isn’t good when facing the Bears’ speeding QB Griffin. TEXAS TECH, 34-31.
ARKANSAS vs. TEXAS A&M (at Arlington)
The Aggies run an aggressive defense that seeks to put maximum pressure on an offense. They do get a lot of tackles for losses, but they also give up a bunch of big plays. Seeing as though Hog QB Mallet averages 10.1 yards per pass attempt – a huge number – he’ll use his NFL arm to torch the Aggies. Aggie QB Johnson will also make plays, but the kid turns it over way too much to seriously think about the upset. ARKANSAS, 34-23.
MISSISSIPPI STATE at HOUSTON*
Last time Houston stepped up in class they were smoked by a mid-tier UCLA team. The Bulldogs also fall in that middle class and will present a size and speed challenge for the home team. The Cougars won’t be able to slow the MSU rushing attack and with their 3rd string QB running the show, the curtain will drop yet again on Houston. MISSISSIPPI STATE, 34-24.
TOLEDO at BOISE STATE*
This will be nothing more than a sight-seeing trip for a Toledo team that couldn’t generate enough points in three MAC games to best what Boise will do in this game alone. Boise comes out to play each and every week, so those hoping to ride the Rockets and hold on for dear life, save yourself the anxiety. BOISE STATE, 49-10.
RICE at UTEP*
Rice’s lousy games since Texas’ half-hearted scrimmage against them goes to show that not all teams that got to “play a lot of people” the year before automatically improve from the experience. As long as UTEP isn’t on the road, they usually do enough things right against opponents who do enough things wrong. Rice quarterbacks are pointing the gun at the team’s head and pulling the trigger. Rice’s plan to get the ball into RB Sam McGuffie’s hands as often as possible pins their chances on what is proving to be one of those overrated, “scrappy” players. UTEP, 37-23.
TEXAS and OKLAHOMA are off this week.
SUNDAY'S GAMES:
NY GIANTS at HOUSTON*
A clutch performance on the road, despite the absence of their best playmaker, has the Texans at 3-1 and sitting pretty at the top of their division. Now they have to keep their focus intact against a visiting non-conference opponent that could use a win pretty badly.
New York’s defense has struggled at stopping the run this year, due to some weak talent in their front seven and a slew of unfortunate injuries, and Houston’s offense has the versatility to switch between a fearsome passing attack or an effective running game. Even without Andre Johnson, Arian Foster and company rumbled for nearly 250 yards on the ground last Sunday at Oakland.
If the Houston coaching staff can adjust their offensive game plan, as they demonstrated their ability to do in Week #1 against the Colts, the Giants will have a tough time leaving Texas with a victory. Houston’s defense will benefit from the return of strong-side linebacker Brian Cushing. And if things turn for the better and Andre Johnson becomes available to play? Raise this recommendation. HOUSTON, 30-24.
NEW ORLEANS at ARIZONA* (Please see "Millionare" section below)
TENNESSEE at DALLAS* (Please see "Millionare" section below)
WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE?
Last week's Millionaire games were 5-3 ATS and are now 17-11 ATS (excludes "pushes") for the season.
$ATURDAY'$ GAME$:
CLEMSON (+3) over NORTH CAROLINA*
North Carolina is one of the most distracted teams in the nation, this much is definitely true. Suspensions have hurt continuity on both sides of the ball. There is lots of talent, but things are shaky in Chapel Hill. Their win at Rutgers of the Big East didn’t look so good after Tulane went into Piscataway, NJ, and basically won by the same scores.
Clemson Tiger defensive coordinator Kevin Steele coached with UNC offensive coordinator John Shoop in the NFL, with the Carolina Panthers. So, with Clemson, you get good defense, off a loss to a strong offensive Miami-FL team, with a coordinator who knows the other team’s offensive style.
On last-game turnover margin alone, this one could be way off on the rating for each side. Clemson turned it over 6 times vs. Miami in the home loss last week, but will get the ball to their running backs because (1) UNC has struggled vs. the run; and (2) Tiger QB Parker is still feeling the effects of the hit he took vs. Auburn, so Clemson RB Ellington should be a big piece of the Clemson game plan.
North Carolina’s down-in-class, lopsided win vs. East Carolina last Saturday was much closer than the final score of 42-17 might have indicated. Interceptions against a first-season passing system, and a late score made it look like a laugher. Up in class all around for UNC, down in class for the Clemson defense after facing the slick offenses of Auburn and Miami-FL. CLEMSON, 27-17.
NORTH CAROLINA STATE* (-9.5) over BOSTON COLLEGE
When you target teams that can score against teams that can’t score, you usually have your best chance of winning comfortably. Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech head coach, on NC State: “They had a lot of injuries last year. A lot of the people played. Now those people are back, plus some of the injury guys are back. They’ve got a good combination going right now.”
Sure, that was before his Hokies won in Raleigh last Saturday, but it wasn’t easy and the Wolfpack gained 507 yards on 82 offensive snaps against his defense. NC State is balanced enough to make first downs, eat clock, score, and put stress on an opposing offense. Pass defense has been their weakness, and Boston College can’t throw it well, which is causing their running game to regress.
Speaking of stressed opposing offenses, Boston College was disgusted enough to make a QB switch prior to a national TV home game against Notre Dame. An 0-21 deficit followed after the new starter got hurt. BC scored only 26 vs. Kent State, only 13 vs. Notre Dame, and failed to crack 300 yards of offense against Notre Dame’s infamously generous Equal Opportunity Defense that is normally willing to allow 200-200 running and passing to a BCS foe. Boston College has been a giant monkey on the back of the NC State coaching staff (0-3 SU), and last year’s 52-20 loss needs to be erased. NORTH CAROLINA STATE, 41-16.
VIRGINIA TECH* (-21.5) over CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Those defensive stops Central Michigan was able to make on the edges against Temple, Eastern Michigan, Northwestern and Ball State? Not gonna be stops when Tyrod Taylor gets the ball out to his bigger, stronger, faster, tackle-breaking athletes, or keeps it himself to do the same. Hokie hunting requires a different set of weaponry than the light arsenal needed to bag scrawny Owls, Eagles, Squirrels, and Cardinals in their nests, and CMU’s defense wasn’t even strong enough to avoid being bitten to death by the Ball State beaks.
Meanwhile, Central Michigan’s 10 points vs. their own conference’s best defense, Temple, and only 2.9 yards per carry against Ball State’s defense, is a bad sign for this step-up into an improving ACC outfit that was embarrassed early, and still angried up good right now after it forced the offense and special teams to play catch-up to beat North Carolina State last Saturday. Virginia Tech allowed 30 a week ago, but they are capable of pitching a shutout like they did against Boston College. VIRGINIA TECH, 50-10.
ARIZONA STATE at WASHINGTON* (TOTAL UNDER 62.5)
ASU’s games are averaging 59 points…Washington’s 61. On the surface, the guys in the desert got this total just about right. But, just like an undertaker – we like to dig.
Last week, Husky coach Sarkisian went back to the basics with his QB Jake Locker stating, “I just tried to put him in position to be effective at what he does well.” What Locker does well is to use his legs to create plays in both the passing and running games. Kid just isn’t a pocket passer. This strategy gave USC fits. ASU won’t have the same issues as they are more athletic and excel at flying around to the ball. Washington will hit a big play or two, but for most of the 60 minutes, the Sun Devil defense will chase and track Locker making it more difficult for him to make plays.
As for the ASU offense, QB Threat will be reined in a bit this week after tossing 10 picks through 5 games. Despite the interceptions he has looked good, but coach Erickson’s team has lost three straight and nine straight to FBS teams, and whilst they may not look as sexy this week, winning can be sexy. Look for their game plan to involve more balance – leveraging the run game a bit more on the road against a team that gives up nearly 5.5 yards per carry.
Freshman tailback Lewis has three 100+ games, and although he is nursing a shoulder injury, he or any of his backfield mates will get the ball a lot and will find success. That success will drain the clock more than the passing game. The weather won’t be super conducive to a score fest either – as the game time temps will hover around 58 degrees with a 75% chance of showers. ARIZONA STATE, 30-17.
ARIZONA* (-7.5) over OREGON STATE
The Rodgers brothers give OSU street cred, but two players does not a cover make. Arizona comes in rested off of a tough 10-9 win over Cal two weeks ago, while the Beavers had to hold on late last week at home vs. ASU. On the field, Arizona is simply much better on both sides of the ball.
The Oregon St. offense is under the direction of a first year starting QB, and it shows. QB Katz is completing just 51% of his throws and the offense is converting only 30% on 3rd down – the biggest reason why they are running a paltry 58 plays per game. Lucky for the visitors that they have yet to commit a turnover…zero…zilch. No way that continues this week against a very fast Wildcat defense.
’Zona’s offense went to work during the past two weeks, concentrating on getting more production out of their power sets. Having fullback Tutogi back and healthy this week will help big time with that objective. The bye week has also given play-making, 6’4" WR Criner a chance to get right, meaning that QB Foles should have his full complement of weapons at his disposal. ARIZONA, 32-17.
$UNDAY'$ GAME$:
DALLAS* (-7) over TENNESSEE
Opposing 3-4 defenses vs. the Tennessee Titans. How’s that been working out for them recently? Glad you asked that question:
Tennessee Titans vs. 3-4 Defenses
2010
Sep 19 - L vs. Pittsburgh, 11-19
Oct 3 - L vs. Denver, 20-26
2009
Sep 10 - L at Pittsburgh, 10-13 OT
Sep 27 - L at NY Jets, 17-24
Oct 18 - L at New England, 0-59
Nov 8 - W at San Francisco, 34-27*
Dec 25 - L vs. San Diego, 17-42
* (+4 in Turnover Ratio, only 14 offensive first downs, three scoring drives [17 points] of 24, 29, 36 yards.)
Not so good, eh? Lots of “Ls” in there. Before he came to the Denver Broncos this season, defensive end Kevin Vickerson was a teammate of running back Chris Johnson on the Titans for a couple of seasons. After Denver held Johnson down last Sunday, Vickerson talked to the Denver Post, and told the writer that he had seen Johnson have plenty of success this way and that way, finding “wafer-thin” slivers of space and turning it into touchdowns. "On some of those,” said Vickerson, “the guy on defense went solo. You can't go solo on Chris Johnson — never. The guy is elusive, and once he's out (in the open), he's gone. You've got to swarm."
Johnson, the only player in NFL history with three runs of at least 85 yards, got swarmed on Sunday when he had 19 carries for only 53 yards. Two teams — the Steelers and the Broncos — have limited Johnson to fewer than 20 carries this season, and also kept him to fewer than 55 yards. Both have beaten the Titans. The Steelers and the Broncos play 3-4 base defenses. According to the Post:
Both teams used their outside linebackers to fold in the perimeter of the Titans' offensive front to keep Johnson pinned in the middle of the field. As fast and elusive as Johnson is, even he can't run for a touchdown from the bottom of a pile. Broncos outside linebackers Robert Ayers and Jason Hunter consistently roared upfield, while also maintaining the integrity of the defensive edge. They didn't get pushed down inside or allow themselves to drift chasing the ball. "That was the game plan. Set the edge, don't let him bounce to the outside," Broncos coach Josh McDaniels said. "We blitzed the two outside linebackers 55, 60 times, however many plays that they had. It was close to all of them. Just make sure we contained him."
As you know, the Cowboys also play a 3-4 defense, renowned for its quickness on the edges. If, during their bye week, they needed a clue about what kind of theme they should harp on in this game, then McDaniels and Denver gave the Cowboys a huge one. Meanwhile, with Dallas averaging 300+ passing yards per game, Tennessee’s notoriously shaky secondary cannot be trusted. DALLAS, 33-13.
NEW ORLEANS at ARIZONA* (TOTAL UNDER 45)
We need to make up for the Super Best Bet loss on New Orleans last week. Here’s our best shot: For the Cardinals, Derek Anderson played like a slug at quarterback, so undrafted rookie quarterback Max Hall will get his first NFL start in this game. Just like rookie Jimmy Clausen got his second NFL start against the Saints last week, in a 16-14 New Orleans victory.
For receiving options at receiver, Hall will have three rookies and Pro Bowler Larry Fitzgerald. The latter gets taken away, of course, because Anquan Boldin is gone, Steve Breaston is hurting, and the Cardinals’ o-line can’t pass protect well enough for quarterbacks who aren’t as confident in the system as Kurt Warner was.
Arizona running back Beanie Wells is moaning about not getting enough carries. With the rookie coming in at quarterback, he’ll stop moaning as Whisenhunt does what everyone else is doing – muscling up against a Saints’ defense that is weak against the run. The Cardinals are gaining a tad more rushing yards this season vs. last. Interesting, because the tiny increase comes in four fewer carries per game, through four games, two of which saw them with huge scoreboard deficits that eliminated rushing as a real option.
With running backs Reggie Bush out and Pierre Thomas likely to miss another game, New Orleans is lacking in the running game that went so well for them last season. It’s making it harder for the Saints to score. They still move the ball OK via the pass, but stall in the red zone. NEW ORLEANS, 20-16.
NEWSLETTER RESULTS!
Week #5 (using Crier’s lines):
For those of you who believed in the Crier and are following him by playing the newsletter games, your results should have been the same as or close to the Crier's results depending on your lines compared to the Crier's with maybe a 5-10% margin of difference, either way.
In Week #5, the Crier went 14-9 ATS for a profit of 8.7 units. For the the first five weeks of the season, the record is 63-41 ATS for a profit of 35.2 units:
Date W/L Team Line Opponent Amt. Of Play Final Score
Oct. 2 W Minnesota* +5.5 Northwestern RP 28-29
Oct. 2 L Army +6 Temple* RP 35-42
Oct. 2 W Georgia Tech Under 60.5 Wake Forest* RP 24+20=44
Oct. 2 W Tulsa -9.5 Memphis* BB 48-7
Oct. 2 W Baylor* -9 Kansas SBB 55-7
Oct. 2 L Western Michigan* +3 Idaho RP 13-33
Oct. 2 L TCU -33.5 Colorado State* RP 27-0
Oct. 2 L Boston College* +2.5 Notre Dame RP 13-31
Oct. 2 W Washington State +27 UCLA* BB 28-42
Oct. 2 L Georgia -4.5 Colorado* BB 27-29
Oct. 2 W Arizona State +3.5 Oregon State* BB 28-31
Oct. 2 L Virginia* +6.5 Florida State RP 14-34
Oct. 2 W Iowa* -7 Penn State BB 24-3
Oct. 2 W Pittsburgh* -19 Florida International BB 44-17
Oct. 2 W Arkansas State* Under 60.5 Louisville RP 34+24=58
Oct. 3 L Tennessee* -6.5 Denver BB 20-26
Oct. 3 W Denver Over 43 Tennessee* RP 26+20=46
Oct. 3 W Baltimore +1 Pittsburgh* BB 17-14
Oct. 3 W Baltimore Under 34 Pittsburgh* RP 17+14=31
Oct. 3 W Detroit Over 45.5 Green Bay* RP 26+28=54
Oct. 3 L New Orleans* -13.5 Carolina SBB 16-14
Oct. 3 W NY Jets -5.5 Buffalo* BB 38-14
Oct. 3 L Philadelphia* -5.5 Washington RP 12-17
* - Home team
N - Neutral site
SBB - Super Best Bet (3 units)
BB - Best Bet (2 units)
RP - Regular Play (1 unit)
NP - Nickel Play (.5 units)
Week #5
Type of Wager: W-L (excludes “pushes”); Profit/Loss (Cumulative in parentheses)
NFL Results ATS:
Super Best Bets: 0-1 = 0%; -3.3 units (0-1 = 0%; -3.3 units)
Best Bets: 2-1 = 66.7%; +1.8 units (8-6 = 57.1%; +2.8 units)
Regular Plays: 3-1 = 75%; +1.9 units (11-7 = 61.1%; +3.3 units)
Week #5 Totals: 5-3 = 62.5%; +.4 units (19-14 = 57.6%; +2.8 units)
College Football Results ATS:
Super Best Bets: 1-0 = 100%; +3 units (5-0 = 100%; +15 units)
Best Bets: 5-1 = 83.3%; +7.8 units (18-9 = 66.7%; +16.2 units)
Regular Plays: 3-5 = 37.5%; -2.5 units (21-18 = 53.8%: +1.2 units)
Week #5 Totals: 9-6 = 60%; +8.3 units (44-27 = 62.0%; +32.4 units)
Total Combined NFL and College Football Results ATS:
Super Best Bets: 1-1 = 50%; -.3 units (5-1 = 83.3%; +11.7 units)
Best Bets: 7-2 = 77.8%; +9.6 units (26-15 = 63.4%; +19 units)
Regular Plays: 6-6 = 50%; -.6 units (32-25 = 56.1%; +4.5 units)
Week #5 Totals: 14-9 = 60.9%; +8.7 units (63-41) = 60.6%; +35.2 units)
SR CREW
HMW
Email: houstonmediawatch@yahoo.com
Blog: http://www.houstonmediawatch.com/
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/lesbiancraig
Facebook Search: HMW Shelton
No comments:
Post a Comment