CRIER'S CORNER
Date posted: 11/5/2010
LOCAL GAMES OF INTEREST
Last week, local games were 6-3 SU (53-18 cumulative) and 4-3-2 ATS (46-23-2 cumulative), although they were not meant to be wagered on. They were for reading purposes only.
For reading purposes only, below are the SR Crew write-ups on this week's games of local interest:
FRIDAY'S GAME
CENTRAL FLORIDA at HOUSTON*
The revenge-minded Cougars represent a different type of team than most of the teams Central Florida rolled in October: Fewer inept offensive players on shaky offensive systems, more proven playmakers in a proven, productive system. But don’t penalize UCF for having taken care of business. They just out-scored East Carolina, no easy feat. CENTRAL FLORIDA, 27-24.
SATURDAY'S GAMES
BAYLOR at OKLAHOMA STATE*
This one might take four hours to complete, as both teams throw it around the yard. Okie State is looking solid on both sides of the football as evidenced by their 6.7 to 3.9 edge in yards per play vs. K-State last week. Despite beating Texas last week, Baylor did yield 428 yards to a Horns offense that has been playing in quicksand for much of the year. Close game, but the Cowboys have the better pass defense and their ability to get QB Griffin III off the field in the second half will be the difference. OKLAHOMA STATE, 37-30.
RICE at TULSA*
A bye week is probably not enough time for Rice’s cream cheese defense to undergo the kind of drastic improvement they’d need in order to make stops against a balanced, fast-paced, efficient offense like Tulsa’s, who will be playing with weight off after the officials were in their underwear at South Bend last Saturday. TULSA, 50-28.
HAWAII at BOISE STATE* (Please see "Millionaire" games below.)
OKLAHOMA at TEXAS A&M*
Both teams ask their QBs to move the football through the air, so this will likely come down to which signal caller has the better game. A&M started Tannehill at quarterback over Johnson last week and the kid put up Johnson’esque passing numbers without the Johnson’esque turnovers. Tannehill threw for over 400 yards and 4 TDs vs. Texas Tech, but this test will be a bit tougher. The Oklahoma defense will allow some completions, but they limit the big play and have given up only 8 TD passes on the season. A&M’s pass defense is similar, so who has the edge? The Sooners do a better job of getting after the QB giving them the ever so slight nod here. OKLAHOMA, 34-31.
TEXAS at KANSAS STATE* (Please see "Millionaire" games below.)
MISSOURI at TEXAS TECH*
Off heavyweights Oklahoma and Nebraska, some might view Missouri as too spent to go on the road for a second straight Saturday and compete well, despite having no access to the bodies and the hearts. Others might merely expect a good team to bounce back with a fine effort.
Texas Tech’s coaching staff - with a 30-year-old offensive coordinator from Troy and a first-time defensive coordinator who was a position coach in the SEC - has no file folder on the long-term productivity of Pinkel Power. At 2-4 in conference, this first-season group isn’t exactly storming the Big 12.
Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert is transitioning from one of the nation’s best pass defenses (Nebraska) to a unit allowing 299 passing yards per game, second-most in the nation. Texas A&M coaches on defending against Texas Tech: "We mixed some things up coverage-wise and I thought we had good pressure on [Potts]…We didn't finish the game well…but did a good job through three quarters.” Typical incomplete game by A&M. Missouri plays for 60 minutes. MISSOURI, 34-17.
SUNDAY'S GAMES
SAN DIEGO at HOUSTON*
The Chargers are 3-5 SU & ATS, but their offense ranks #1 in points, total yards and passing yards, while their defense is #1 in yards allowed, passing yards allowed and #4 in rushing yards allowed. How does that make sense? Probably because the Chargers special teams have failed them in every way possible and the team has a -8 Turnover Ratio.
With all the punt-protection problems this team has had, what happened on their first offensive series last week? Punt blocked, safety for the other team. Holy cow. Don’t punt! Against Houston’s defense, they may not have to. Despite winning four of their first six games, the Texans managed to keep some of the wins closer than they had a right to be and owe two victories to their opponents’ ineptitude rather than their own superiority.
Houston remains as soft a team as ever, softer now that linebacker DeMeco Ryans is out, and off-steroids LB Brian Cushing is changing positions during a sophomore jinx season. Houston comes off a short week of rest after playing the fast-paced Colts’ offense on Monday Night. They are staring down a divisional road game at bugaboo Jacksonville. Normally, and especially so under these conditions, it will be difficult for the league’s worst passing defense to stop Phil Rivers, regardless of who the starting WRs are, as long as Antonio Gates can tough out the pain and keep suiting up on Sundays. SAN DIEGO, 28-24.
NEW ORLEANS at CAROLINA*
The Saints are 1-5-1 ATS this season and 1-10-1 ATS going back to December last season. They were 1-5 ATS against NFC South rivals last season and are already 1-2 ATS against them this season.
The Panthers’ defense continues to hold up its end, allowing only 245 yards to St. Louis last week. Four Carolina offensive drives ended in turnovers, which is a recurring theme this season for the Panthers. They may as well call Vinny Testaverde to get up off the couch and play quarterback for them, for all the no good Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen have done for them. When an offense can’t get out of its own way, sooner or later, the defense will crack under the strain. The Panthers committed only one turnover in a 16-14 loss at the SuperDome on October 3.
The Saints’ defense isn’t getting turnovers at last season’s over-the-top rate. In fact, New Orleans is -5 in TO Ratio this season. Not in the same bad league as Carolina’s -10, but nowhere near last season’s +11. The Panthers’ sound pass defense is as equipped as anybody to force New Orleans to work hard at running the ball well to beat them, which is not the way New Orleans would prefer to try to win a game. You’d like the Panthers better if RB DeAngelo Williams was coming back after he missed last week’s game. Nine of the last 11 games in this series have gone Under, for what it might be worth. NEW ORLEANS, 23-17.
DALLAS at GREEN BAY*
Following Tony Romo’s injury, Jon Kitna was going to get one chance from us. It was last week against Jacksonville. It didn’t work out very well. The Dallas bandwagon will be much lighter now across America, even though the consensus was that Kitna’s four interceptions in a blowout defeat were bad-luck tips and that he found the right guys at the right time most of the time.
Kitna is the face of Losing, yet the offense gained its typical 412 yards under his direction. Dallas is the NFC’s San Diego this season. Big yards, big plays, bad boo-boos. The Cowboys are now 1-6 SU. Tennessee was 1-6 SU last season and eventually contended for the playoffs with a strong, second-half surge. It can happen for Dallas. Good luck to all the willing risk-takers.
The Cowboys have revenge for 17-7 loss at Lambeau a year ago, when they blamed in-game offensive line injuries for a stagnant offense that gained only 278 yards. Green Bay is hurting with injuries. Their offense is sputtering. The Packers are ripe to be had, but Dallas is looking kind of cursed, aren’t they? GREEN BAY, 24-21.
TENNESSEE IS OFF THIS WEEK.
WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE?
Last week's "Millionaire" games were 6-1 ATS and are now 35-21 ATS (excludes "pushes") for the season.
$ATURDAY'$ GAME$:
TEXAS (-3.5) over KANSAS STATE*
The Longhorns have been written off more times than mortgage interest after three home losses to UCLA, Iowa St. and Baylor. Sports Reporter Main Edition subscribers have earned with the Horns with a Super Best Bet cover at Texas Tech and a Best Bet win in Lincoln, NE.
Another Big 12 road trip and UT will be up to their Big 12 road tricks. In last week’s loss to nationally ranked Baylor, Texas moved the football to the tune of 400+ total yards, but the Bears’ offense beat the UT blitz on three different occasions for long TDs – two of them on 3rd and longs. Baylor has multiple offensive athletes and the scheme to make the big play. K-State – not so much.
Wildcat running back Thomas was the target (running or catching) on 50% of the team’s offensive plays last week. That’s not exactly what you call offensive balance. Against Nebraska a few weeks back, UT held what was then a one-dimensional offense without an offensive TD just one week after the Huskers had posted 48 points against this same Kansas State bunch. At the root of the success is the Longhorns rush defense that ranks 8th nationally in yards per carry at 2.9 per tote.
Look for the Texas offense to do their part as well. On the season, the UT offense has hit the 400-yard mark just twice: October 23 vs. Iowa St. (ranked #102 in total defense) and October 30 vs. Baylor (ranked #78 in total defense). That’s right –the last two weeks. They also have 50 first downs to their opponents’ 33 first downs during that same two-game stretch. Enter the Wildcats’ D that ranks #104 nationally in total defense. Texas’ inability to score TDs in the red zone crushed them vs. Iowa State. and Baylor – has crushed them all year in fact.
Offensive coordinator Greg Davis noted this week that this year’s offense has reached the red zone just two times less at this point in the season than last year’s BCS national title game participant. But – they have 10 field goals of 28 yards or less….ouch. Davis committed this week to more aggressive play-calling and to putting QB Gilbert in situations where he can use his arm or his legs to make plays.
His strategies will pay off this week against a weak defense. Texas is a perennial national power that got realistic this week. The goal now is to make a bowl game. Not THE bowl game, but a bowl game. Couple that motivation with a favorable matchup and the fact that they are 3-0 on the road, and you get a formula for a comfortable cover. TEXAS, 31-14.
SOUTH CAROLINA at ARKANSAS* (TOTAL UNDER 59)
The Razorbacks’ last three SEC tilts have averaged a total of 78 points and 4-of-6 conference games involving South Carolina have hit at least the 56-point mark. We’re in for another Southern scoreboard work-out, right? Not exactly. To complete the parlay from the Sports Reporter Main Edition Best Bet backing Arkansas, we pull a "Men At Work" and head to the land down ‘Under.’
The Gamecocks secondary hasn’t played well this season, ranking 99th nationally in pass defense efficiency. The defense knows it, the coaches know it, even the offense knows it. This week Gamecock freshman tailback Lattimore gave a glimpse into the game plan – a simple game of keep-away. “Of course, you have to keep it out of Ryan Mallet’s hands…We have to control the clock,” said Lattimore. Perhaps that’s just a youngster popping off a bit? Doubtful – especially when Darth Visor (aka Coach Spurrier) noted, “Hopefully we can stay on the field a bit.” No doubt that Lattimore and the Gamecock offensive line will factor heavily into the home team game plan.
As for Arkansas, despite having one of the best QBs in the country, most of the talk out of Fayetteville this week revolved around the defense. When asked about how they slow South Carolina’s talented offensive players, Defensive Coordinator Willy Robinson said, “We’ve stressed it in a big-time way this week, probably more so, that it’s going to take a lot of hats to bring down these people and a lot of running to the football.” Look for the Hogs to be a bit more wild than the norm – and that norm isn’t bad – ranking 31st nationally in total yards given up per game (331 ypg).
Mother Nature won’t do the offenses many favors either – especially for two teams who are used to playing in warm temps. This game has a 7 pm ET kick and the mercury will dip down to the mid-40s by the time the ball is in the air. ARKANSAS, 27-17.
BOISE STATE* (-21) over HAWAII
Hawaii’s two losses have come to bigger boys – USC and Colorado. Boise may be in a little boys’ conference, but they play big boy football. The Warriors’ formula for winning involves success in the passing game coupled with turnover generation on the defensive side. That passing game won’t find a lot of open blue turf against a Broncos secondary that is allowing opponents to complete only 55% of their throws, while the front seven is extremely active averaging over three sacks per game.
As for the turnover factor, Boise QB Kellen Moore has thrown 18 touchdowns to just 2 picks, so a Hawaii D that has 14 interceptions on the season won’t see that total grow much, if at all. Lastly, the talking heads are circling this one as a potential “loss game” for Boise. Well…the home team here rarely comes out flat and the extra time to prep after a Tuesday game when Hawaii had the late Saturday night action on the island gives the Broncos that much more of a situational edge. BOISE STATE, 55-17.
NAVY (+3) over EAST CAROLINA*
A 3-point loss to Duke is nothing to be ashamed of…if you’re on the hardwood. On the gridiron a week after dismantling Notre Dame, well, that actually creates value here so we won’t complain. “We definitely were not ready for this game,” said Middie coach Niumatalolo after the 34-31 loss to the Dukies.
The loss got their attention and as one player noted, “Our only remedy is to just go to work.” Considering what these guys do for a living, we’ll trust that by work, he means work. Navy’s offensive game is the triple option, but last week they fell behind and completed a bunch of passes for a bunch of yards. Not their game. They’ll get back to the ground vs. a bad ECU defense that has this one sandwiched between two C-USA contests – the 2nd of which is vs. UAB this coming Thursday night.
With a short week on deck, you can be sure that the Pirate defensive staff didn’t spend all week working on an option offense that they haven’t seen yet this season and won’t see again. We noted a few weeks back that the Midshipmen were working hard on their red zone offense. In the last three weeks, they’ve scored 12 TDs on 12 trips inside the 20. Defensively, Navy is decent but will give up some points. Their strength is the secondary which matches well against ECU’s pass-oriented offense. NAVY, 35-29.
$UNDAY'$ GAME$
ARIZONA (+8.5) over MINNESOTA*
On second thought, enough with these NFL home favorites that are struggling for all the world to see, and expecting them to turn it around on short notice. Brett Favre isn’t getting any more mobile. Tarvaris Jackson, should his services be required, would still be playing for the most snaps this regular season, without Sidney Rice (removed from the PUP list but yet to suit up this season), and with Percy Harvin that much more banged-up.
Harvin missed Wednesday and Thursday practices this week, after Randy Moss was waived. Harvin also handles kick-return duties as well as any returner in the NFL, so the Vikings would more than likely be getting worse field position than usual should Harvin not play, play hurt, or have his normal duties curtailed because of his ailments. Given the current state of Minnesota’s receiving corps, asking Farvaris – er, Tarvaris - to take 20+ offensive snaps without turning the ball over would be really stretching it, and we all know that Favre is chucking it and forcing it worse than ever to avoid getting his anchored self-destroyed.
In four games with Moss, Harvin caught 19 passes for 287 yards and two touchdowns. The Vikings expect opposing defenses to adjust now that Moss is no longer part of the offense. "It’s definitely going to get a little tougher as far as the double teams and the brackets," Harvin said. "I’m sure we’re going to see a lot more of that coming up. But we’ve just got to game plan around that." In other words, a favorite has to find a different way to win by more than touchdown. Rice was Moss for Minnesota last season. He played in all 16 games and two playoff games last year, on a Pro Bowl level with 83 receptions for 1,312 yards and 8 TDs. Without a receiver like that, Harvin’s open space shrinks, and RB Adrian Peterson has not been able to fight through eight-man fronts enough times.
With the dynamic difference not in the mix, the offense has been bottled up, giving the defense more responsibility that has not been handled as well as it was in the past. Playing with fewer leads, the Minnesota defense cannot be as aggressive as it would like to be. The Vikings’ offensive issues have overshadowed some defensive injuries in the secondary. As one observer says: “Glad to hear Asher Allen is back, but not half as glad as the Cardinals. They are already planning multiple plays forcing him to actually cover a wide receiver, which from what I have seen, he hasn't gotten around to doing yet this season.”
The Cardinals are not the Washington Generals. They’re an NFL football team with one more win than the Vikings currently have, a team that can gain a tie for first place in their division by beating the Vikings. Their quarterback Derek Anderson has had some awful moments. The Cardinals got beat by a zillion points in their last two road games in domes, and have a history of blowout defeats on the road.
But we tend to be scared off by past results that do not necessarily factor into the upcoming scenario. "I felt like in the last two games, where Anderson came in, that our offense moved the ball with him in there," coach Ken Whisenhunt said. "I felt like, coming into this situation, where I know how tough a place it is to play in Minnesota, that having had that type of experience before as a starter in the league, that it gave us our best chance of competing against the Vikings." Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but all teams have their problems. We just outlined Minnesota’s.
Arizona’s defense is averaging 2.0 turnovers acquired per game and held a better Minnesota offense to 17 points last season. ARIZONA, 23-20.
INDIANAPOLIS at PHILADELPHIA* (TOTAL UNDER 47)
Field-stretching wideout DeSean Jackson may or may not play for the Eagles in this game, following a concussion suffered two weeks ago. Whether he does or not, ask yourself this question: “When was the last time you saw the Colts’ defense get beaten deep?” This group has been allowing some of the least passing yardage per game in the NFL for a while now. Currently, Indy’s 203 passing yards allowed per game is a little high for them, but it’s still eighth-fewest in the NFL this season.
Do the Eagles get beat deep? Usually not. They fell asleep on Kerry Collins-to-Kenny Britt in their most recent game at Tennessee two weeks ago, and will most certainly have spent the bye week re-addressing their pass coverage. The Eagles’ defense, along with the Colts’, has been a unit with a basic philosophy of allowing yards between the 20s, then stiffening in the red zone.
With the Colts’ receiving corps banged-up, and Indy playing off a short week, there isn’t much they can do in that area right now that the Eagles haven’t already seen on tape, and when they were watching live on Monday Night. The Colts get their punter back for this game, after his suspension for being drunk and swimming in a canal. Put blinders on him to block out views of the nearby Delaware River, hide the 12-pack of Keystone Light, and Pat McAfee should boom a few for his 44.7-yard average to put Michael Vick onto a series of long fields. Akers, Vinatieri, get your legs warmed up. PHILADELPHIA, 16-15.
NEWSLETTER RESULTS - Week #9
For those of you who believed in the Crier from Week #1, you continue to be rewarded for your loyalty. By playing the newsletter games, your results should have been the same as or close to the Crier's results depending on your lines compared to the Crier's with maybe a 5-10% margin of difference, either way.
In Week #9, the Crier went 15-6 ATS for a profit of 13.1 units. For the first nine weeks of the season, the record is 120-71 (over 62% for the mathematically-challenged) for a profit of 68.6 units:
Week #9 Results (using Crier’s lines):
Date W/L Team Line Opponent Amt. Of Play Final Score
Oct. 30 W UAB Over 54 Southern Miss* SBB 50+49=99
Oct. 30 L Purdue +17 Illinois* RP 10-44
Oct. 30 L Miami FL -15 Virginia* BB 19-24
Oct. 30 W Iowa* -6.5 Michigan State BB 37-6
Oct. 30 W Boston College* +7 Clemson RP 16-10
Oct. 30 W Western Michigan* +8.5 Northern Illinois RP 21-28
Oct. 30 W Akron Under 48.5 Temple* BB 0+30=30
Oct. 30 W Kent State* -10 Ball State RP 33-14
Oct. 30 T San Diego State -10 Wyoming* BB 38-28
Oct. 30 W Tulsa +8.5 Notre Dame* BB 28-27
Oct. 30 W Florida (N) +2 Georgia BB 34-31
Oct. 30 W Oklahoma* -23.5 Colorado BB 43-10
Oct. 30 W Air Force* +7 Utah RP 23-28
Oct. 30 L USC* +6.5 Oregon RP 32-53
Oct. 30 W UL- Lafayette Over 52.5 Ohio* RP 31+38=69
Oct. 31 L Dallas* -7 Jacksonville BB 17-35
Oct. 31 W Detroit* -1 Washington BB 37-25
Oct. 31 L NY Jets* -5 Green Bay RP 0-9
Oct. 31 W Green Bay Under 42 NY Jets* RP 9+0=9
Oct. 31 W Miami +1.5 Cincinnati* RP 22-14
Oct. 31 W New England* -6 Minnesota RP 28-18
Oct. 31 L Pittsburgh +1 New Orleans* BB 10-20
* - Home team
N - Neutral site
SBB - Super Best Bet (3 units)
BB - Best Bet (2 units)
RP - Regular Play (1 unit)
Week #9
Type of Wager: W-L (excludes “pushes”); Profit/Loss (Cumulative in parentheses)
NFL Results ATS:
Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (0-1 = 0%; -3.3 units)
Best Bets: 1-2 = 33.3%; -2.4 units (13-12 = 52%; -.4 units)
Regular Plays: 3-1 = 75%; +1.9 units (20-15 = 57.1%; +3.5 units)
Week #9 Totals: 4-3 = 57.1%; -.5 units (33-28 = 54.1%; -.2 units)
College Football Results ATS:
Super Best Bets: 1-0 = 0%; +3 units (7-1 = 85.7%; +17.7 units)
Best Bets: 5-1 = 83.3%; +7.8 units (36-17 = 67.9; +34.6 units)
Regular Plays: 5-2 = 71.4%; +2.8 units (44-25 = 63.8%: +16.5 units)
Week #9 Totals: 11-3 = 48.6%; +13.6 units (87-43 = 66.9%; +68.8 units)
Total Combined NFL and College Football Results ATS:
Super Best Bets: 1-0 = 0%; +3 units (7-2 = 77.8%; +14.4 units)
Best Bets: 6-3 = 66.7%; +5.4 units (49-29 = 62.8%; +34.2 units)
Regular Plays: 8-3 = 72.7%; +4.7 units (64-40 = 61.5%; +20 units)
Week #9 Totals: 15-6 = 71.4%; +13.1 units (120-71 = 62.8%; +68.6 units)
THE CRIER/SR CREW
HMW
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