CRIER'S CORNER
Written by: The Crier/SR Crew
Date posted: 12/3/2010
LOCAL GAMES OF INTEREST
Last week, local games were 2-5 SU (74-30 cumulative) and 3-4 ATS (66-36-2 cumulative), although they were not meant to be wagered on. They were for reading purposes only.
For reading purposes only, below are the SR Crew write-ups on this week's games of local interest (please note that the Texans Thursday night game was included in the 12/1 Peanut Gallery):
SATURDAY'S GAMES:
UTAH STATE at BOISE STATE*
The Broncos hadn’t scored less than 42 points in a WAC game until last week’s 34-31 loss at Nevada. Despite being outgained 239 to 8 in rushing yards in the second half, BSU was still in great position to win. Pretty much tells Utah State that unless they move the football like champs, they’ll get beat down like chumps. Broncos send their seniors out on a high note while earning a share of the conference crown. BOISE STATE, 48-9.
BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP
(Cowboys Stadium – Arlington, TX)
NEBRASKA vs. OKLAHOMA
The Sooners run/pass ratio is close to 50/50, but seeing that they average only about 3.5 yards per carry, the passing game is their bread and butter. That’s a good matchup for the Huskers who rank #1 nationally in pass defense efficiency and rarely get toasted. Coach Pelini has a very athletic secondary and a front seven averaging close to three sacks per game.
Offensively, Nebraska also gets the matchup check mark – as their Top-10 ranked rush offense faces an average Sooner run defense. The x-factor here is the health of Husker QB Martinez, who missed the Colorado game with a variety of leg injuries. If he doesn’t play, defending that rushing attack gets a lot easier for Bob Stoops & Co. NEBRASKA, 24-23.
SUNDAY'S GAMES:
JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE*
These two teams feature two of the longest tenured coaches in the NFL, and since these teams happen to be division rivals, there’s a healthy dose of familiarity between Jeff Fisher and Jack Del Rio.
Not a whole lot has gone right for the Titans in 2010, from Vince Young to Randy Moss to their offensive coordinator being diagnosed with cancer, but this is a team that still boasts one of the best running backs in the NFL. Look for them to remember that against a division rival they’ve handled well, boasting an 8-3 SU & ATS mark against the Jaguars at home this decade, and a 14-7 SU & ATS record overall.
Jacksonville is a feisty, well-coached group of players that just doesn’t have the talent on the field to be a true playoff contender – anyone can see that their defensive front seven lacks the size and tackling ability to consistently shut down opposing running games, as evidenced by their 19th ranked run defense, and their 27th ranked overall defense.
Kerry Collins is expected to be back to take the snaps under center, mercifully relieving Rusty Smith of those responsibilities, and Chris Johnson should rebound from his worst performance of the season against a team he’s averaged 116 rushing yards per game. TENNESSEE, 27-20.
NEW ORLEANS at CINCINNATI*
The Bengals tried to stay in the game against the Jets last week, but at the first sign of adversity, they crumpled like they were made of paper mache. It’s fashionable to say that teams always bring their best against the defending Super Bowl champions, but these Bengals couldn’t focus for four quarters against the team that ended their season last year.
Expecting more against a Saints team that is finally hitting their stride, winning four in a row, seems to be asking a lot, on the surface, but at least they have more time to get their act together (as does New Orleans). Carson Palmer’s regression in physical ability and decision making is shocking, and this is an opportunistic Saints defense that has played well on the road, and against the pass.
Cincinnati ranks dead last in the NFL in bringing pressure against the opposing quarterback, a dangerous position to be in when facing Drew Brees. A complete collapse by Cincinnati is due before the season ends. Doesn’t necessarily have to happen here. NEW ORLEANS, 30-24.
DALLAS at INDIANAPOLIS*
The Cowboys visit Indianapolis with extra rest, coming off a spirited effort against New Orleans on Thanksgiving, and facing a Colts team that has run a difficult gauntlet in the past five weeks, with more difficulty ahead.
Peyton Manning and company began this stretch with a revenge-motivated victory over Houston, a much-hyped match-up against Michael Vick and the Eagles, a closer-than-expected game against the Bengals, and the annual Manning vs. Tom Brady game, followed by last week’s primetime egg-laying against San Diego.
That’s a tough stretch for any team, but three of the next four games are divisional contests in a tightly compressed AFC South. If there was ever a game to be labeled a “trap game,” it’s the one against the non-conference foe that is 3-8 and coming off extra preparation time.
It’s not like the Cowboys are a patsy – there is plenty of talent on Dallas, just under-motivated talent, but unlike a team like Cincinnati, the Cowboys are playing like they actually have a fire lit under their butts, and that effort has a fine chance to result in an upset of the injury-plagued Colts. DALLAS, 24-21.
WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE?
Last week's "Millionaire" games were 3-3 ATS and are now 47-31 ATS (excludes "pushes") for the season. This weeks games are below:
$ATURDAY'$ GAME:
IDAHO* (-13.5) over SAN JOSE STATE
Readers of the San Jose Mercury newspaper saw this headline in the sports page, “Bill Gates Slips on Money, Injures Groin”…..okay – it really said “San Jose State Limps into Football Finale with Idaho.”
Injuries have crushed an already bad team to the point where they will suit up just four scholarship seniors. Head coach MacIntyre had this to say about it, “We have some walk-on seniors who are filling in some spots.” Unless those “spots” refer to ball boys and Gatorade re-fillers, which they don’t, the Spartans are in for a long day.
On the other sideline, Idaho coach Robb Akey said this week that he was “sick to his stomach” after the loss to Fresno State, because his sixteen seniors won’t get a chance to go bowling to end their careers. “We need to end this season on a high note. It’s our responsibility to send out these seniors in a first-class way and play our tails off,” added the emotional Akey. Before they even take the field you gotta give a huge emotional and physical edge to the Vandals. Now let’s talk football play.
Idaho has been beaten this year by teams that pound the rock. SJSU’s offense relies almost completely on the arm of QB Jordan La Secla – you have to when your run game ranks 119th out of 120 in rush yards per game. That is music to the ears of the home team D, which excels at getting after the QB and generating turnovers. Idaho averages the same number of sacks per game (2.3) as the aggressive defenses of Oregon and Texas A&M, and leads the nation in fumble recoveries with 19. Whilst the fumble recovery number may be something to look at next season – as teams rarely repeat that type of performance – this year it appears to be their M.O.
Plus, these guys are playing extremely tough football of late, giving up just one offensive TD in their last 8 quarters of play. On offense, the home team also relies heavily on the passing game, ranking 8th nationally in pass yards per game. Given that their QB is a red-shirt senior who has endured a lot in his five years, Akey most certainly wants the kid to have the game of his life.
Although they won’t share that sentiment, San Jose’s defense is more giving than Santa Claus and will certainly help out, as they rank 102nd nationally in pass yards allowed per game. Readers of the Idaho Statesmen may see the following headline in the Sunday sports section, “IdaHome Run!!!! Seniors Spank Sparty Spawning Last Game Party.” IDAHO, 42-17.
SUNDAY'$ GAME
ARIZONA* (+3.5) over ST. LOUIS
The Monday Night springboard play, with some very nice, highly exposed theatrics having taken place to help create an all-too-easy “anti-Arizona” mindset. A blowout home loss by the Cardinals to San Francisco on Monday Night Football, followed by quarterback Derek Anderson’s emotional outburst in the post-game press conference over petty reactions to how he spends his in-game down-time. The nation sees Arizona as a virtually unbettable team in disarray. That’s just fine and dandy.
You’ll recall that before Arizona went to the Super Bowl after the 2008 season, they struggled mightily in two regular season victories against the 49ers. Then, they were swept last season and have now lost three in a row to San Francisco. One of the reasons for the struggles against this particular opponent is that the 49ers’ defensive coordinator from 2005-06 – when Mike Singletary was the linebackers coach – is Bill Davis. When the 49ers are playing against Davis, they have a pretty good idea of what the opposing defense is going to do, and what they can do on offense that has the best chance of working. And, Mike Singletary will be damned if he’s going to lose to the S.O.B. who they dared place over him on the San Francisco food chain.
Talking about who was playing who, let’s look at the Rams’ 33-31 win at Denver last Sunday. The Rams and Broncos play once every four years. The teams and coaches are unfamiliar. But guess what? When current Denver head coach Josh McDaniels was coordinating a similarly pass-heavy New England offense in the Super Bowl of 2007, current Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo was coordinating the Giants’ defense that stomped all over that. The Rams had a hidden edge in a game of strangers, and Denver was also behind the 8-ball in several other ways, most notably playing shortly after McDaniels and the team had been fined for taping a 49ers practice.
But there was another thing: Rams owner Stan Kroenke owns just about everything in Denver except the Broncos – including tall buildings, the Nuggets, the Avalanche, and the Rapids. How to make your boss happy during the holiday season if you’re Steve Spagnuolo? Beat the Denver Broncos, in Denver.
In the Denver game, the Rams scored quickly under weird circumstances in the middle of the game. After a St. Louis field goal that gave them a 23-13 lead with 2:53 remaining in the second quarter, Denver made a bozo move: 3 plays and out, in 13 seconds. Rams say, “Thank you,” get the punt, drive down and kick another field goal to take a 26-13 lead into the locker room. They get the first possession of the second half, punt, and in three plays, Denver fumbles on their own 31. Rams recover, Steven Jackson gets 30 yards on three carries and Darby takes it in from the 1-yard-line on a fourth, the Rams’ second short-field set-up and TD score of the afternoon.
The Rams scored a season-high 36 points in the win against a lousy defense that didn’t know them, while Denver was playing with injuries on defense, against a stranger off a short week between AFC rivals San Diego and Kansas City. St. Louis handed the ball to Steven Jackson 29 times, and he got only 72 yards. While Rams’ quarterback Sam Bradford threw for 308 yards and 8.3 yards per attempt in the game, his season Yards Per Attempt going into the Broncos game had been only 5.4. Now, the Rams line up against an NFC West opponent familiar with their offense. What goes up must come down. The Rams have lost eight straight games to the Cardinals and haven’t topped 13 points in any of the last five. Five of the eight losses have been by 14 to 29 points.
Meanwhile, Cardinals’ head coach Ken Whisenhunt is taking heat for saying the same thing over and over again:
October 25 after 22-10 loss to Seattle: "We have to continue to work the way we've been working in practice, it's starting to show up for us defensively, offensively we got to get better, and that's where it has to start."
November 1 after 38-34 loss to Tampa Bay: "What you have to do is stay the course, you have to continue to work the way you know it's been successful for you. It's a tough period we're going through. Our guys are working hard and I really believe we're going to get better. That's all you can ask for."
November 8 after 27-24 OT loss to Minnesota: "What we talked about yesterday is we've got to continue to work the way we've been working."
November 15 after 36-18 loss to Seattle: "But the one thing I can tell you is I know the way we work, the way we prepare. I know it works for us. We are going to continue with that. We are going to continue to work hard and hopefully we will get a game here where we play well."
November 22 after 31-13 loss to Kansas City: "I sound like a broken record here. Listen, we're working at it and we've got to stay this course. The one thing I know is that the way we prepare, the way we work, I know it works for us. I know that we can be successful."
November 30 after 27-6 loss to San Francisco: "I'm going to do what I know works for us. That's continue to practice and prepare the way we've worked. I really believe we'll come out of this. There's plays we had opportunities to make last night that I think could have made a difference in that game. We got to find a way to make those plays on game day."
What else is he supposed to say? It’s not like the Cardinals are the first team to have ever lost six in a row in the NFL. Derek Anderson was right when he snapped at the reporter and said, “I take this shit seriously!” But every week in the NFL, there exists the opportunity to play like shit and win in certain circumstances. ARIZONA, 23-14.
MONDAY'$ GAME:
NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND (TOTAL UNDER 46)
They say that second meetings tend to be lower-scoring than the first. “We” often like to say that “they” don’t know what they’re talking about, but in this case, we’ll make an exception and side with the tendency people, especially since the Total for the first meeting was 38, the teams combined for 42 points, and now the Total for this one is 8 points greater than it was in Week Two, and 4 points more than the teams combined for in that 28-14 win by the Jets on an 81-degree afternoon with 6 mph winds in East Rutherford, NJ.
This one will be played at night in the mid-30s, with more wind in the forecast, and we’ll take every little piece of weather while not using it as the main reason for liking a lower score.
The Jets are known for failing in December, but the way they’ve been reconfigured – good run-blocking offensive line, deep stable of running backs – gives them a much better chance to win games at this time of the year. The Patriots, as you can see by the graph of the “NFL Totals Sky,” are currently playing outside the orbit of NFL Overs at +9.2 points per game greater than the Total. No NFL team has ever finished a season playing more than +9.1 points per game greater than the Total, which San Diego did in 2006. You look for some gravity to apply itself at a time like this. Familiarity between the teams is one factor. Others include:
a) The Patriots’ soft run defense. Because the Jets have a solid rush offense and wouldn’t want to ask quarterback still wacky Mark Sanchez to “lead” them to victory in a big road game in December, the Jets figure to rely heavily upon that running attack to wear down the New England defense and not risk interceptions in their own territory that would give New England easy set-ups for cheap scores.
b) The Jets’ pass defense. Opponents are completing only 50.7% of their passes against the Jets. That means that the Jets have rendered opposing quarterbacks into a composite Jimmy Clausen. Obviously, Tom Brady will complete more than 50.7% of his passes, but without Randy Moss on hand as he was in the first meeting, and with CB Darrelle Revis and LB Calvin Pace on hand for the Jets after Revis was hurting and Pace missed the first meeting, it’s Brady’s biggest resistance of the season and the Jets already held the Pats scoreless in three of the four quarters in September. NEW ENGLAND, 16-13.
NEWSLETTER RESULTS - Week #13
Week #13 was a losing week for the Crier, as he dropped 3.8 units going 11-10 ATS. For the first thirteen weeks of the season, the record is now 175-105 (over 62% for the mathematically-challenged) for a profit of 91.2 units.
By playing the newsletter games, your results should have been the same as or close to the Crier's results depending on your lines compared to the Crier's with maybe a 5-10% margin of difference, either way.
Week #13 (using Crier’s lines):
Date W/L Team Line Opponent Amt. Of Play Final Score
Nov. 26 W Toledo* -4.5 Central Michigan BB 42-31
Nov. 26 L East Carolina* +1 SMU BB 38-45
Nov. 26 L Oregon* -19.5 Arizona RP 48-29
Nov. 27 W Indiana +3 Purdue* RP 34-31
Nov. 27 W Mississippi State* Under 55 Mississippi* RP 31+23=54
Nov. 27 L Florida +2 Florida State* BB 7-31
Nov. 27 L Clemson* +3 South Carolina BB 7-29
Nov. 27 W Boston College +3 Syracuse* BB 16-7
Nov. 27 W Wake Forest +6 Vanderbilt* RP 34-13
Nov. 27 L North Carolina State -2 Maryland* BB 31-38
Nov. 27 L Virginia +23.5 Virginia Tech* BB 7-37
Nov. 27 L Oklahoma Under 67 Oklahoma State* RP 47+41=88
Nov. 27 L California* -7 Washington SBB 13-16
Nov. 27 W Oregon State Under 57 Stanford* RP 0+38=38
Nov. 27 W Texas Tech* -9 Houston RP 35-20
Nov. 28 L Pittsburgh -7 Buffalo* RP 19-16
Nov. 28 W Tennessee Under 45.5 Houston* BB 0+20=20
Nov. 28 W Carolina +10.5 Cleveland* BB 23-24
Nov. 28 L Baltimore* -9 Tampa Bay BB 17-10
Nov. 28 W Chicago* +3 Philadelphia RP 31-26
Nov. 28 W Kansas City -1 Seattle* BB 42-24
* - Home team
N - Neutral site
SBB - Super Best Bet (3 units)
BB - Best Bet (2 units)
RP - Regular Play (1 unit)
Week #13
Type of Wager: W-L (excludes “pushes”); Profit/Loss (Cumulative in parentheses)
NFL Results ATS:
Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (1-1 = 50%; -.3 units)
Best Bets: 3-1 = 75%; +3.8 units (23-16 = 59.0%; +10.8 units)
Regular Plays: 1-1 = 50%; -.1 units (29-18 = 61.7%; +9.2 units)
Week #13 Totals: 4-2 = 66.7%; +3.7 units (53-35 = 60.2%; +19.7 units)
College Football Results ATS:
Super Best Bets: 0-1 = 0%; -3.3 units (9-2 = 81.8%; +20.4 units)
Best Bets: 2-5 = 28.6%; -7 units (47-31 = 60.3%; +25.8 units)
Regular Plays: 5-2 = 71.4%; +2.8 units (66-37 = 64.1%: +25.3 units)
Week #13 Totals: 7-8 = 46.7%; -7.5 units (122-70 = 63.5%; +71.5 units)
Total Combined NFL and College Football Results ATS:
Super Best Bets: 0-1 = 0%; -3.3 units (10-3 = 76.9%; +20.1 units)
Best Bets: 5-6 = 45.4%; -3.2 units (70-47 = 59.8%; +36.6 units)
Regular Plays: 6-3 = 66.7%; +2.7 units (95-55 = 63.3%; +34.5 units)
Week #13 Totals: 11-10 = 52.4%; -3.8 units (175-105 = 62.5%; +91.2 units)
THE CRIER/SR CREW
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