CRIER'S CORNER
Written by: The Crier/SR Crew
Date posted: 12/10/2010
HOW’S THE CRIER DOING?
For those who did not subscribe to the free newsletter, the Crier has been putting selected games out there on the HMW blog for “reading purposes only”. A few of you have even broken the “reading purposes only” rule and wagered a few Diet Cokes on the games as 1560’s Sean Pendergast and his associates often refer to their currency.
After 14 weeks the blog results ATS (excludes “pushes”) are:
Local Games of Interest: 70-38 (4-2 last week)
Millionaire Games: 47-34 (0-3 last week)
BCS Elimination Tournament: 9-6 (1-0 last week)
Total Record ATS: 126-78 (5-5 last week)
Whether someone followed the Crier in the blog or through the newsletter, there's still plenty of action left, so just continue to follow the rules and don't get cute and lose control because: "The Lord can taketh as well as giveth" (Crier 16:7).
LOCAL GAMES OF INTEREST
SATURDAY'S GAME:
NAVY vs. ARMY (at Philadelphia, PA)
As you probably know, Navy is on an 8-0 SU run in the series. Navy’s current senior class hasn’t allowed a touchdown to Army in the last three meetings. We loved the Under prior to last season’s 17-3 Navy win.
But those last three Army teams came into Philly averaging only 17, 15, and 15 points per game. This bunch of Black Knights joined the Army to see the Navy, scoring 28.5 ppg after quarterback Trent Steelman had gotten his feet wet last season operating Army’s Navy-like triple-option at this level. He’d specialized in it before arriving on the college scene.
The emergence of 6’3”, 235-pound fullback Jarred Hassin added a key element to Army’s offense, forcing opposing defenses to respect the dive play and making them try to tackle a guy that is hard to bring down, too. The jelling of Army’s offense has moved them away from being the friendly-fire victims that college football followers came to know and love/hate, depending on which side they were betting.
A +11 Turnover Ratio not only helps keep the Army defense away from the shadow of its own goalpost, it has enabled Army’s offense to run up 33:30 average possession time, fourth-longest in the nation next to Stanford, TCU, and Nevada. But Navy is +10 in TO Ratio and keeps the ball for 32:05 per game, not too shabby. Army with the ball and a chance to tie or win at the end would be a welcome change to this perennially boring bowl. NAVY, 30-20.
SUNDAY'S GAMES:
ST. LOUIS at NEW ORLEANS*
The Rams have done well against pass-laden offenses of San Diego and Denver (2-0 SU, ATS), and held Philip Rivers of the Chargers to only 4.7 yards per attempt. Rams’ head coach Steve Spagnuolo has been known as a very successful aggressive guy with his defenses when facing pass-laden offenses.
But the Rams’ offense is being led by a rookie quarterback with a low Yards Per Attempt of 5.9. Their preferred style of running Steven Jackson 28 times works against opposing offenses that can’t score much, or against soft opposing defenses. The Saints’ defense isn’t great, but they’ve allowed the third-fewest points in the NFC.
Drew Brees is an accurate passer (69% completions, best in the NFL) and the Rams have a fine chance to be playing from behind in a loud dome with that rookie quarterback, who wouldn’t be able to hand off to Jackson as much while trailing. One of these days, the 9-3 SU Saints will get all of their injured offensive skill players back on the field and blow somebody away. Could be today, as the 6-6 SU Rams play a third straight road game, up in class off two wins against losing teams. NEW ORLEANS, 28-17.
PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS* (Please see "MILLIONAIRE" games below.)
MONDAY'$ GAME:
BALTIMORE at HOUSTON*
A prominent former NFL GM recently referred to the Houston Texans as being “not tough” on the NFL website, the latest in a long line of doubters who’ve seen the writing on the wall for Gary Kubiak’s team. At 5-7 SU, the Texans are sinking fast, and while they are coming off extra preparation time against a Ravens squad that played a tough divisional game on Sunday night, the difference between these two teams in toughness and physicality is what will determine the margin of victory.
Houston’s offense, which seems to click on all cylinders only when playing from behind, will find it difficult to operate against the tough Baltimore defense, fifth in the NFL in points allowed. Arian Foster has emerged this season as one of the most effective runners in the NFL, but even he’ll struggle to find running room against a Ravens run defense that has been rock solid for most of the year, holding 10 of 12 opposing running backs to fewer than 100 yards.
Joe Flacco leads a steady, if unspectacular, offense that just may look spectacular against Houston’s atrocious defense, and the Ravens will continue their march toward the playoffs. BALTIMORE, 24-17.
WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE?
SUNDAY'$ GAMES
OAKLAND (+4) over JACKSONVILLE* (Total Under 43)
“This could be a fast game as the Jaguars and Raiders have the No. 2 and 3 rushing attacks, respectively, in the NFL,” says an analyst for the Sporting News. Amen, brother. A fast game means the scoreboard moves slowly.
Our “NFL Stats” chart, accessed via a link on the home page at www.sportsreporter.com, attests to the truth of that reported statement. Not only do these offenses like to churn out the rushing yards (to avoid mistakes by mistake- and sack-prone quarterbacks), they are also two of only four teams in the NFL who log more rushing plays per game than pass plays.
The last time two of those four teams met in a game, it was an UNDER winner for us in Oakland at Pittsburgh. Besides Pittsburgh, which averages the fewest incomplete passes per game (10), nobody throws fewer incomplete passes per game than the Jaguars (11). The fewer incompletions, the shorter the game. The best part about two rushing teams in a match-up is that if one of them gets a multi-score lead like Pittsburgh did that day, it’ll stick to the ground, gobbling up clock, while the trailing team tries to pass. If the trailing team could pass productively, it wouldn’t be a rush-oriented team. Get it? Got it.
The Jaguars have scored on their last five opening possessions. But their four quarters points scored in the last two games have been 17, 20, with a 3-point second half against the Giants, and a scoreless second half against Tennessee. The five-game stretch also included a 35-point outing at Dallas where they scored touchdowns on drives that began at the Dallas 33- and 7-yard lines following turnovers. The Jags’ quarterback David Garrard, and his Oakland quarterback Jason Campbell, are notorious for flattening out in the red zone.
Jags' insiders cite dramatic improvement in the linebacker corps over the past month. The Raiders defense is tied for the NFL lead in sacks with 36, and Jacksonville quarterback David Garrard, despite attempting the second-fewest passes in the AFC, has been sacked for the third-most lost yardage in the conference. Rain and wind in the forecast – we’ll take as much as Mother Nature will give, on a grass field. OAKLAND, 18-13.
CINCINNATI (+8.5) over PITTSBURGH*
The 2-10 SU Bengals could have folded the tent on Thanksgiving night in New Jersey, but played well against the Jets in a game much closer than the 26-10 final score might have indicated. They played well enough to cover for us this past Sunday (+7) vs. New Orleans.
In their Monday Night Football loss to Pittsburgh earlier this season, Cincinnati didn’t quit after turning the ball over early and creating an instant deficit. They earned a back-door cover for their backers in that game. The Steelers are off a very hard-fought win against a very physical division rival Baltimore Ravens team they despise, the only division rival they are fighting for anything against as Cincinnati and Cleveland are out of the playoff picture.
Few teams come off Baltimore battles in good shape, and Pittsburgh was already a banged-up team going into that game, with offensive and defensive line injuries. They lost tight end Heath Miller to a concussion during the game, and Miller is unlikely to play in this game. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will be playing with a broken nose. He didn’t exactly light it up against Baltimore after getting it broken, with the Steelers’ lone touchdown of the game coming on a 15-yard drive following a turnover. Big Ben also has a bad foot. The Steelers had to sign a new punter this week.
One reason why the Bengals often play Pittsburgh tough: Cincinnati offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski was hired into his current position by Steelers’ defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau, when LeBeau was head coach of the Bengals in 2000. They have met in their current posts 13 previous times since 2001. Familiarity is key, as it was when Cincinnati played New Orleans last week, as their defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer had worked side-by-side in Dallas with Saints’ head coach Sean Payton when Payton was the Cowboys’ offensive coordinator. CINCINNATI, 23-20.
NY GIANTS (-2) over MINNESOTA*
There will be a perception that because the Vikings are now 2-0 SU and ATS since putting head coach Brad Childress out of his misery, and because the Vikings began running up a season-high points total of 38 as soon as Brett Favre was out of the picture in the first quarter last Sunday, that the wins will continue to pile up like snow in Minneapolis. Maybe they will.
But after the Giants have done a physical number on moveable quarterbacks Vick and McNabb in recent weeks, poor Tarvaris Jackson, lacking live reps in the Minnesota system, or Favre, lacking the sense to leave, will be forced to operate against a defense that can trap him in the pocket, contain the running game, put pressure on opposing passers, and, suddenly this season with the growing influence of first-season defensive coordinator Perry “My Buffalo Defense Led the NFL in Interceptions Last Season” Fewell, pick some passes.
The Giants expect to return some injured starting offensive linemen for this game, and when they acquired Sage Rosenfels as a back-up quarterback in September, they got a guy who piloted Minnesota’s offense for two pre-seasons and played QB for Minnesota’s scout team against the Vikings’ defense in practice last year. Fuel to the fire: Giants lost 41-7 on this field in the 2009 regular season finale. NY GIANTS, 26-14.
ATLANTA (-7) over CAROLINA*
These NFC South rivals meet for the first time in 2010, with Atlanta 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS. Carolina is 1-10 SU, 3-9 ATS, with a combined PF-PA of 154-307 indicating they are more than capable of getting the score doubled against them on any given Sunday.
The Panthers’ chances last for as long as their defense can keep the opposing offense in check while their offensive running game grinds out yardage against an opposing defense geared for it. Not a great plan, but it’s the best available for them. Atlanta’s offense is pretty good at going on long drives and putting points on the board.
The Falcons make 22 first downs per game, with a balanced Run/Pass ratio on offense, and they don't turn it over much. In fact, the Falcons have committed the fewest turnovers in the NFC, while the Panthers have committed the second-most turnovers in the NFL. The Panthers’ running game put up nice numbers at Seattle last Sunday: 30-131. Yet they still lost by 17 points despite being +1 in TO Ratio, because quarterback Jimmy Clausen can’t sustain enough drives with his arm.
The Panthers appear to be a team playing as well as it can play, but still unable to compete for four quarters against good opponents and some not-so-good ones. ATLANTA, 36-17.
PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS* (Total Over 50.5)
Hubris has a way of undercutting the arrogant, but it’s never too late to regain a little bit of self-respect. Dallas is 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS since Jason Garrett took over for Wade Phillips, all four Overs, and there were four straight Overs before that. Now they host an Eagles team led by a quarterback that knows all about hubris, and who has now learned what it takes to thrive in the NFL.
Unfortunately, Michael Vick is backed by a defense that lacks physicality and keeps opponents in the game, despite Andy Reid’s penchant for kickstarting his offense in the early going. Despite a shiny 8-4 SU record, the Eagles are only 6-6 ATS because their defense struggles to put the clamps down with the lead. Dallas is playing much better on offense and Tashard Choice is emerging as the new workhorse in the running game, not to mention Jon Kitna’s revelatory play.
The Cowboys should be able to withstand the loss of Dez Bryant and keep this one close. Don’t expect a blow-out from the Eagles, on the road against a motivated divisional foe, led by a coach auditioning for the next several years. PHILADELPHIA, 37-34.
NEWSLETTER RESULTS - Week #14
Week #14 was just about a break-even week for the Crier, as he won 1.1 units going 7-6 ATS. For the first fourteen weeks of the season, the record is now 182-111 (over 62% for the mathematically-challenged) for a profit of 92.3 units.
By playing the newsletter games, your results should have been the same as or close to the Crier's results depending on your lines compared to the Crier's with maybe a 5-10% margin of difference, either way.
For those lucky ones who have been receiving and following the Crier's selections, bowl coverage will be extended over over the course of four issues in a probable sequence that sees the first five bowl games covered in next week’s issue. After that, the next three issues will have coverage of about 13, 12 and then five bowl games.
Good Luck to all, as we go into the backstretch of the season playing with "house money". Last week's newsletter results follow:
Week #14 (using Crier’s lines):
Date W/L Team Line Opponent Amt. Of Play Final Score
Dec. 4 W Pittsburgh +2 Cincinnati* RP 28-10
Dec. 4 W USC -6 UCLA* BB 28-14
Dec. 4 L Idaho* -13.5 San Jose State BB 26-23
Dec. 4 W Central Florida* -9 SMU RP 17-7
Dec. 4 W Auburn (N) -4.5 South Carolina BB 56-17
Dec. 4 L Florida State (N) +3.5 Virginia Tech RP 33-44
Dec. 5 W Minnesota* -6.5 Buffalo BB 38-14
Dec. 5 L Kansas City* -9 Denver RP 10-6
Dec. 5 W Washington Under 43.5 NY Giants* BB 7+31=38
Dec. 5 L San Diego* -13 Oakland RP 13-28
Dec. 5 W Dallas +5 Indianapolis* RP 38-35
Dec. 5 L Arizona* +3.5 St. Louis BB 6-19
Dec. 6 L NY Jets Under 46 New England* BB 3+45=48
* - Home team
N - Neutral site
SBB - Super Best Bet (3 units)
BB - Best Bet (2 units)
RP - Regular Play (1 unit)
Week #14
Type of Wager: W-L (excludes “pushes”); Profit/Loss (Cumulative in parentheses)
NFL Results ATS
Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (1-1 = 50%; -.3 units)
Best Bets: 2-2 = 50%; -.4 units (25-18 = 58.1%; +10.4 units)
Regular Plays: 1-2 = 33.3%; -1.2 units (30-20 = 60%; +8 units)
Week #14 Totals: 3-4 = 42.9%; -1.6 units (56-39 = 58.9%; +18.1 units)
College Football Results ATS
Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (9-2 = 81.8%; +20.4 units)
Best Bets: 2-1 = 66.7%; +1.8 units (49-32 = 60.5%; +27.6 units)
Regular Plays: 2-1 = 66.7%; +.9 units (68-38 = 64.2%: +26.2 units)
Week #14 Totals: 4-2 = 66.7%; +2.7 units (126-72 = 63.6%; +74.2 units)
Total Combined NFL and College Football Results ATS
Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (10-3 = 76.9%; +20.1 units)
Best Bets: 4-3 = 57.1%; +1.4 units (74-50 = 59.7%; +38 units)
Regular Plays: 3-3 = 50%; -.3 units (98-58 = 62.8%; +34.2 units)
Week #14 Totals: 7-6 = 53.8%; +1.1 units (182-111 = 62.1%; +92.3 units)
THE CRIER/SR CREW
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