CRIER'S CORNER
Written by: The Crier/SR Crew
Date Posted: 12/17/2010
HOW THE CRIER’S DOING?
After 15 weeks the blog results ATS (excludes “pushes”) for the Crier are as follows:
Local Games of Interest: 74-38 (4-0 last week)
Non-Millionaire Bowl Games: 0-0 (0-0 last week)
Millionaire Games: 50-37 (3-3 last week)
BCS Elimination Tournament: 9-6 (0-0 last week)
Total Record ATS: 133-81 (7-3 last week)
Whether someone followed the Crier in the blog or through the newsletter, there's still plenty of action left, so just continue to follow the rules and don't get cute and lose control because: "The Lord can taketh as well as giveth" (Crier 16:7).
Below is the schedule of games through next Wednesday, December 22.
BOWL GAMES:
SATURDAY'S GAMES:
University Stadium – Albuquerque, NM
BYU vs. UTEP
These former WAC rivals were headed in opposite directions at the end of the season – BYU winning 5 of its last 7 with losses only to TCU and Utah; the Miners dropping 5 of their last 6 and looking lost in the process.
The Cougs' late season success can be tied directly to the October 1st decision by head coach Mendenhall to take over the defense. He uses an aggressive scheme with his front seven and allows his secondary to go make plays. The pressure Mendenhall brings could spell trouble for UTEP QB Vittatoe, who never recovered from a mid-season ankle injury. Perhaps the time off helped, but the kid was wearing a walking boot in early December and was quoted saying, “It won’t get any worse.” We’re not doctors, but sounds like the senior will continue to grind it out with pain.
BYU QB Heaps has improved, but Mendenhall will still lean on the running game against a bad defense. If Heaps gets in third and long situations, BYU won’t mind punting the ball – making Vittatoe drive long fields against a well-coached defense. Still tough to back the Cougs when giving double digits given the fact that they average just 24 points per game.
Even if UTEP struggles to move the ball, their kicking and return games will put some points on the board eating into that point spread. Plus, this game falls in the middle of semester exams for the Cougars and when your prospects for playing pro ball are slim to none….grades are important. BYU, 26-17.
HUMANITARIAN BOWL
Bronco Stadium – Boise, ID
FRESNO STATE vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Chills run up and down Fresno State spines as staff and players return to the scene of a 51-0 defeat just three games ago. But at least the players know that the coaches have their backs.
Northern Illinois’ outright loss to Miami-OH in the MAC Championship Game – as 18-point favorites – was followed by the announcement that head coach Jerry Kill was taking his sled and mushing up to Minne$ota of the Big Ten, since followed with the news that his offensive and defensive coordinator are riding along with him, not sticking around for this bowl game.
The Huskies certainly seemed unprepared for that MAC title game, didn’t they? Normally, you’d anticipate a huge effort from Fresno State only if they were playing a BCS Conference foe. Against non-BCS bowl foes, Fresno State is just 1-4 SU under Pat Hill. But disinterest might work both ways, with disjointedness thrown in as Northern Illinois – main supervisors absent and with the running backs coach calling the plays and safeties coach coordinating the defense – is asked to travel and get excited about playing the WAC’s fourth-place team.
If you want to play the common opponent game – not sayin’ it’s a valid comparison – Fresno was out-gained 364/399 by Illinois but won 25-23 (without leading rusher Robbie Rouse, who will be ready to go here). Northern Illinois was virtually even in yardage with Illinois (390/389) and lost 22-28.
Northern Illinois wants to run the ball, with speed backs, almost twice as much as it passes, so Fresno’s defense, yielding only 3.9 yards per rush attempt, needs to play near that average and make Chandler Harnisch throw more frequently than he has. FRESNO STATE, 29-28.
TUESDAY'S GAME, DECEMBER 21
ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
Tropicana Field – St. Petersburg, FL
SOUTHERN MISS vs. LOUISVILLE
Maybe things have come full circle? Southern Miss, as a scrappy underdog that would give power-conference foes fits, is a reputation based on something that ended several years before the tenure of the head coach who came before Larry Fedora, now in his fourth season. The Golden Eagles are actually just 4-8 ATS when “up in class” since 2006.
Since 2005, going down in class has been a piece of cake (7-2 ATS) for Louisville. Those so-called “records” will be overplayed, as will Louisville’s 37 sacks, sixth-most in the nation. Be aware that 59% of those sacks came in three games against Eastern Kentucky (FCS school), Memphis (should be an FCS school) and the Lobster Offense of Rutgers (backwards, fast, allowed most sacks in the nation!).
After their opener against Kentucky, the Louisville defense actually had a season-long run playing against opposing quarterbacks who were in their first full season as designated starters, and they even caught one opponent – UConn, the Big East champion – forced to start a third-string, true freshman out of the blue.
This Cardinals’ defense did just fine against opposing offenses that plod along – Arkansas State, Memphis, UConn, Syracuse, Rutgers. That was five of the six wins. Five of the six losses were against more spready and/or speedy offenses: Kentucky, Oregon State, Cincinnati, South Florida, West Virginia, foes that all beat Louisville by 3-7 points who also featured pretty good defensive quickness. Aggressive quicks is the Southern Miss game on both sides of the line, and junior quarterback Austin Davis has been directing a productive, 400+ yards per game spread attack since his freshman season. SOUTHERN MISS, 30-29.
GAMES OF LOCAL INTEREST:
SUNDAY'S GAMES:
HOUSTON at TENNESSEE*
The faltering Texans come off a short week of rest to face a division foe they blanked 20-0 three weeks ago. Now, the venues are reversed and a Titans team that finally showed signs of life against Indianapolis looks to keep up their level of play, if for pride alone.
Jeff Fisher and crew have 10 days to game-plan against the softest team in the NFL, and Fisher is sure to use the Week 12 humiliation as a point of emphasis. Now that the Titans started giving Chris Johnson the ball again, they’ve been rewarded with yards, points, and a happy running back. Look for that formula to remain the same against a Houston team hurting from a tough game against Baltimore, one of the most physical teams in the NFL, and featuring a mediocre defensive front seven that struggles to contain physical running backs. TENNESSEE, 20-17.
WASHINGTON at DALLAS* (Please see "Millionaire" games below.)
NEW ORLEANS at BALTIMORE*
It’s a short week for the Ravens off their Monday Nighter at Houston, but physical foes have often taken it to the 10-3 SU Saints, who look ahead to 11-2 SU Atlanta and have a “finesse” offense playing outdoors in December here. Long-range forecast is 36 degrees, windy and wet, but that is subject to change.
Also, while the Saints have been suspect betting tools against physical foes, most of the failures have come vs. the spread in wins when heavily favored, not as small underdogs which they are likely to be here. They handled Pittsburgh’s physicality fairly well (in the dome) earlier this season, and Ravens’ quarterback Joe Flacco is still a young guy who can get flustered by a defense that does as many different things as New Orleans’ will. He plays against it for the first time. Drew Brees, on the other hand, has seen just about everything and the Saints’ offense is getting healthier as the season gets later. NEW ORLEANS, 23-22.
MILLIONAIRE GAMES:
NEW ORLEANS BOWL
SuperDome – New Orleans, LA
TROY (-1.5) over OHIO
First-season Troy running backs coach Jeff Beckles – who spent the prior three years at Central Michigan in the MAC and faced Ohio twice - sounds like he’s hankerin’ for a promotion to offensive coordinator with his assessment of this match-up. Beckles likes the match-up between his team – the Sun Belt leader in total offense with 441 yards per game – vs. Ohio’s fourth-ranked MAC defense: “Spread them out and make them cover a lot of ground,” Beckles said. “They’re not used to a fast tempo offense. You go fast before they get a chance to line up. A lot of times when you play fast, you run right straight at them.”
Troy averaged 76.8 offensive snaps per game this season, eighth-most in the nation, and has a deep posse of running backs in addition to offensive linchpin Jernel Jernigan, a receiver who gets the ball here, there and everywhere. Ohio’s defense will bend while keying on not giving up the big play, but they might tire along the way against this kind of offensive foe. While one reason for the high number of offensive snaps by Troy was a defense that got scored upon quickly, Ohio’s offense – gaining 328 yards per game -- isn’t close to being a fearsome, dynamic unit.
Ohio has enjoyed success using two quarterbacks in games this season despite Boo Jackson and Phil Bates combining for just under 60% completions. Both can run, and have accounted for 833 rushing yards. Each is bigger than the leading running back, Vince Davidson. But they let Jackson pass it, too. He has 16 interceptions, one in every 14 attempts. Boo!
A Troy defensive player compares Jackson to UAB’s David Isabelle, and Western Kentucky’s Kawaun Jakes. Both quarterbacks were among the few who struggled against Troy - Isabelle went 2-of-8 for 16 yards and was benched. Jakes was 10-of-23 for 81 yards. TROY, 38-24.
SUNDAY'$ GAME$:
CAROLINA* (-2.5) over ARIZONA
The 1-12 SU Panthers will probably have the #1 pick in the NFL draft and could use it to pick a quarterback like Andrew Luck of Stanford, given that they are now 0-7 SU with Notre Dame faker boy Jimmy Clausen starting. Clausen’s awfully low 4.9 Yards Per Attempt actually sunk lower when he turned in a 2.5 Yards Per Attempt game against the Falcons in our BEST BET winner on Atlanta last Sunday.
Carolina might now realize what they have in Clausen – hardly anything – and put #2 (really, #4) quarterback Keith Null into this game, given that Null has seen the Arizona defense during his time as a St. Louis Rams back-up quarterback. Anything short of Jake Delhomme – including Vinny Testaverde – would be an improvement at the position for the Panthers, who, for once this season, are not overmatched at the quarterback position with the Cardinals coming in with a choice between "Laughing Boy" Derek Anderson, rookie Max ‘Brittle Bones’ Hall, or rookie John Skelton.
The 43-point outburst occurring with the sudden presence of Skelton vs. Denver last Sunday was merely a coincidence and not at all related to the over-the-top points total. The Cardinals got six turnovers from Denver, began five scoring drives in Broncos’ territory, and yet Skelton completed less than 50% of his throws for only 3.8 Yards Per Attempt. The Panthers, who, unlike Denver, have a very serviceable running game and a good pass defense, are very encouraged about this opposing quarterback’s numbers! CAROLINA, 24-13.
DALLAS* (-6.5) over WASHINGTON
Desperate coaches do desperate things. The Redskins may or may not start Donovan McNabb. They are hinting about going with Rex Grossman instead. Head coach Mike Shanahan uses the coaches’ line that it forces the Cowboys to prepare for two quarterbacks. That’s kind of a joke, almost like the Vikings “forcing” the Giants to prepare for both Brett Favre and Tarvaris Jackson (one washed-up, immobile interception thrower, and a rusty guy who, if he was any good, the Vikings wouldn’t have had to use Favre for as long as they did).
McNabb or Grossman, and Dallas is laughing. They’d beaten McNabb three straight times last season and should have beaten him on opening day, when McNabb played a lousy game but Dallas’ offense was worse. Grossman beats himself. The Redskins’ pass offense ranks third worst in the NFL, ahead of only the Panthers and Cardinals.
Their rookie left tackle Trent Williams will have his hands full against Dallas OLB extraordinaire DeMarcus Ware. The Redskins will likely give Williams a lot of help with a tight end and/or running back, which gives another Dallas linebacker, Anthony Spencer, an opportunity to beat another underachieving Washington lineman, Jammal Brown. Be it McNabb or Grossman, he’ll have to get rid of the ball quickly. Bad things usually happen to an offense whose quarterback is hurried.
Winter weather forced the Redskins to practice in a local gym on Thursday, which is a key practice day. Washington is the only Eastern team in a cold-weather city that doesn’t have its own, special indoor practice facility. Defensive coordinator Jim Haslet: "It makes it harder, obviously. Over time, you are going to play in these elements at some point. The only bad thing, this week, is we don't. We play in ideal conditions. Obviously, they (the Cowboys) are inside practicing and getting good practices. It is just something you got to fight through.'' DALLAS, 34-19.
ATLANTA (-6) over SEATTLE*
This is traditionally a knee-jerk “take the home dog” situation among “handicappers” because schedule spots don’t come much tougher: The 11-2 SU Falcons, with the NFC’s best record, play the rare, third straight road game, a fourth road game in five weeks, coming off two NFC South wins against Tampa Bay and Carolina, with a division look-ahead to 10-3 SU New Orleans.
Tough spot! In theory, that is. In practice, it could be different. Four things should give a person pause about taking 6-7 SU Seattle, attempting to at least keep pace with the 6-7 SU Rams and stay ahead of the 5-9 SU 49ers in the NFC West: 1) they stink 2) they stink 3) they have injuries 4) they stink. Pete Carroll’s phony-baloneys now have 7 blowout losses this season by 17 to 34 points, two of them home vs. good rushing opponents Kansas City and New York Giants.
The Falcons have a pretty good running game, too, although at “only” 124 yards per game, it’s just fourth-best in the NFC – still better than Seattle’s paltry 85 rushing yards per game. Making up the yardage in the passing game is becoming a problem for the Seahawks, because receivers Mike Williams and Ben Obomanu were injury inactives for a very important game at San Francisco last Sunday, and then Deon Butler broke his leg during the loss.
Good teams often overcome bad spots. Bad teams often fail to take advantage of good spots. Excellent coaches can get blown out, point their teams to certain important games, and win them. "Pete the Cheat" is not an excellent coach. ATLANTA, 31-13.
PITTSBURGH* (-5.5) over NY JETS
Something is wrong with these brash Jets, who raced out to a 9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS start before collapsing against the Patriots, then looking befuddled and confused against the Dolphins. The football gods have never been kind to hubris, and perhaps Rex Ryan’s overabundance of confidence has finally resulted in some consequences. Or, more realistically, it should be noted that with the exception of their victory against New England, the Jets’ eight other wins have come against teams with an aggregate record of 33-69 – three of the victories requiring last minute desperation plays.
That’s the definition of a cupcake schedule that has inflated the Jets standing with the public, and perhaps within their own locker room. Hubris, indeed. Now they face a Pittsburgh team that specializes in execution, not public relations, riding a four-game win streak since their own humiliation at the hands of the Patriots, and looking to solidify their standing as the second best team in the AFC.
The Jets’ offense has really faltered of late, with LaDanian Tomlinson showing his age, Shonn Greene confirming his one-dimensional style, and Mark Sanchez proving he isn’t quite ready for prime time. There’s something to be said for experience, toughness and physicality in the NFL, and as the weather turns worse, the Steelers will prove that adage on the muddy grounds of Heinz Field. PITTSBURGH, 27-13.
NEW ENGLAND* (-14) over GREEN BAY
The deck may be stacked against the NFC participant in this non-conference game. Aaron Rodgers suffered what looked to be a mild concussion last week against the Lions, and was removed from the game before the end of the first half. Of greater concern is that this was Rodgers’ second concussion of the season, which may necessitate him sitting out a week due to the NFL’s more stringent rules on head injuries.
In addition, the Green Bay coaching staff should be alarmed by the pathetic performance of their offensive line that was consistently unable to maintain the pocket against Detroit’s defensive front four, prompting Rodgers to run the football as much as he did, which ultimately led to the concussion. Those aren’t good things to worry about heading into a road game against the best team in the NFL, but the circumstances are sure to be complicated by the mid-December weather in Gilette Stadium.
Did we mention the non-existent Green Bay running game, that has put added pressure on Rodgers all season long? All signs point up for the Patriots, who excel in any type of weather, actually have a running game for once, and feature the hottest quarterback in the league's most consistently fluid offense. Even if Rodgers takes the snaps, it’s tough to compete against Belichick and Brady when they are rolling like this. NEW ENGLAND, 38-14.
MONDAY'S GAME
CHICAGO (-6) over MINNESOTA*
Joe Webb, eh? There are some people who remember an exhibition game this past August, when Joe Webb was quarterbacking for the Vikings. All he needed to do was go forward a little bit at the end of the game, and it would have been a betting push. Instead, he did a George Plimpton - with no field presence, he dropped back to throw, got caught and tackled in his own end zone for a safety on the last play of the game, and the Vikings missed covering all of their underdog point-spreads by at least a half-point.
Anyone who had the Vikings that night might get some payback here. The Vikings’ offense wasn’t doing much with Brett Favre. It couldn’t do anything with that poor S.O.B. Tarvaris Jackson, who waited all this time behind that giant S.O.B. Favre, and finally got to make his season debut against a New York Giants defense that has spent most of the season injuring opposing quarterbacks. Jackson is on injured reserve already.
The Minnesota offense might do less than nothing with Joe Webb taking snaps. Webb played college ball at UAB. That’s in Alabama. They don’t get much cold weather down there. Instead of a home-dome, he gets an outdoor game at night in December, with projected temperature of 17 degrees, because the tear in the Metrodome roof cannot be repaired in time and this game has been switched to where another inept football team plays its home games, the college stadium TCF Bank Stadium, home of the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
Webb is “mobile.” So was Tarvaris Jackson, and he and Webb combined to put 3 points on the board vs. the Giants. The Chicago defense rushes, pressures, and contains opposing quarterbacks almost as well as the Giants defense does. The Bears have allowed only 11 TD passes and intercepted 16 passes this season. They are transitioning from the Patriots, to the Vikings. Tom Brady to Joe Webb!
Good night to be a Bears' defensive player just one week after it was a bad day to be a Bears defensive player against New England, in snow on grass, when they couldn’t dig in and rush the passer. This particular game will be on artificial turf, with better footing, and the Minnesota quarterback represents possibly the biggest next-game class drop in terms of the opposing playbooks. The Patriots have the world’s most complex on offense. The Vikings will be able to put their game-plan on a post-it note. Run Peterson and Gerhart, throw safe routes, and pray when third-and-long comes up.
A few weeks ago, we all saw what Chicago’s defense did to another team’s third-string quarterback when the Bears traveled to Miami and shut out the Dolphins, 16-0. Webb has a lot less NFL experience than Tyler Thigpen had. Chicago’s offense didn’t do much that night. It didn’t have to, and it won’t have to in this game. When the Vikings punt as often as they will have to, Devin Hester will eventually set the Bears up in good field position and they’ll only need to throw screen passes and run the ball a little bit to get 30 yards and field goal, maybe even a TD when the Vikings’ defense gets tired and cold from always being out there. CHICAGO, 19-0.
WEDNESDAY'S GAME, DECEMBER 22
LAS VEGAS BOWL
Sam Boyd Stadium – Las Vegas, NV
BOISE STATE (-17) over UTAH
Knees were jerking all across the country when Vegas posted Boise as a 17-point favorite. Boise is used to BCS bowls and is still on post-Nevada loss hangover. Kellen Moore has been working the rubber chicken award show circuit. How can the nation’s 20th ranked team be such a dog vs. the #10 ranked team? Well, because #10 is a much better football team and they always come ready to play.
Let’s compare the offenses. Boise’s worst offensive performance of the year yielded 6.1 yards per play, which is good for 28th nationally if that was their season mark. The Broncos have had to run a bit more spread offense lately due to injuries, but the Utes secondary gave up a lot of yards and 18 TD’s this season, so a pass-oriented scheme won’t be a bad thing.
Utah averaged a healthy 6.3 yards per play this year, but against Air Force, TCU, Notre Dame, and BYU, they didn’t fare better than 4.6 yards per play. TCU ranked first nationally in total defense, but the other three teams were not better than 33rd in total D. Boise lived in the Horned Frogs’ hood, ranking 4th in total defense. Plus, the Utes will be without starting QB Wynn and starting left tackle Cullen against a defense that racked up 45 sacks on the season.
Backup QB Cain is a bit more mobile than Wynn, but he can’t stretch the defense like the starter, meaning that Boise can focus more on jamming the running game. 3rd and longs will lead to 4th and longs, and Utah ranked 116th in punting average. Giving BSU QB Kellen Moore short fields is like giving Usain Bolt a 10 meter head start in a 100 meter race….he’ll beat you anyways, but with the help he’ll absolutely destroy you. BOISE STATE, 41-15.
NEWSLETTER RESULTS - Week #15
Week #15 resulted in a small profit for the Crier, but a profit nonetheless, as he won 2.6 units going 4-3 ATS. For the first fifteen weeks of the season, the record is now 186-114 (62% for the mathematically-challenged) for a cumulative profit of 94.9 units.
By playing the newsletter games, your results should have been the same as or close to the Crier's results depending on your lines compared to the Crier's with maybe a 5-10% margin of difference, either way.
For those smart and lucky ones who have been receiving and following the Crier's selections, bowl coverage will be extended over the course of the next three issues with coverage of about 13, 12, and then five bowl games.
Good Luck to all, as we continue in the backstretch of the season playing with "house money". Last week's newsletter results follow:
Week #15 (using Crier’s lines):
Date W/L Team Line Opponent Amt. Of Play Final Score
Dec. 12 L Oakland +4 Jacksonville* RP 31-38
Dec. 12 L Oakland Under 43 Jacksonville* RP 31+38=69
Dec. 12 L Cincinnati +8.5 Pittsburgh* BB 7-23
Dec. 12 W Chicago* Over 39.5 New England RP 36+7=43
Dec. 12 W Atlanta -7 Carolina* BB 31-10
Dec. 12 W Philadelphia Over 50.5 Dallas* BB 30+27=57
Dec. 13 W NY Giants -4 (N) Minnesota BB 21-3
* - Home team
N - Neutral site
SBB - Super Best Bet (3 units)
BB - Best Bet (2 units)
RP - Regular Play (1 unit)
Week #15
Type of Wager: W-L (excludes “pushes”); Profit/Loss (Cumulative in parentheses)
NFL Results ATS
Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (1-1 = 50%; -.3 units)
Best Bets: 3-1 = 75%; +3.8 units (28-19 = 59.6%; +14.2 units)
Regular Plays: 1-2 = 33.3%; -1.2 units (31-22 = 58.5%; +6.8 units)
Week #15 Totals: 4-3 = 57.1%; +2.6 units (60-42 = 58.8%; +20.7 units)
College Football Results ATS
Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (9-2 = 81.8%; +20.4 units)
Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (49-32 = 60.5%; +27.6 units)
Regular Plays: 0-0 = 0%; 0 (68-38 = 64.2%: +26.2 units)
Week #15 Totals: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (126-72 = 63.6%; +74.2 units)
Total Combined NFL and College Football Results ATS
Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (10-3 = 76.9%; +20.1 units)
Best Bets: 3-1 = 75%; +3.8 units (77-51 = 60.2%; +41.8 units)
Regular Plays: 1-2 = 33.3; -1.2 units (99-60 = 62.3%; +33 units)
Week #15 Totals: 4-3 = 57.1%; +2.6 units (186-114 = 62%; +94.9 units)
THE CRIER/SR CREW
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