CRIER'S CORNER
Written by: The Crier/SR Crew
Date Posted: 12/24/2010
HOW THE CRIER’S DOING?
After 16 weeks the blog results ATS (excludes “pushes”) for the Crier are as follows:
Local Games of Interest: 75-39 (1-1 last week)
Non-Millionaire Bowl Games: 0-2 (0-2 last week)
Millionaire Games: 54-40 (4-3 last week)
BCS Elimination Tournament: 9-6 (0-0 last week)
Total Record ATS: 138-87 (5-6 last week)
Whether someone followed the Crier in the blog or through the newsletter, there's still plenty of action left over, as football winds down, so just continue to follow the rules and don't get cute and lose control because: "The Lord can taketh as well as giveth" (Crier 16:7).
Thanks for being with us through the Fall and Winter. Best of luck in all sports. Here's to a spectacular ending to the football season as it draws to a conclusion over the next six weeks.
Below is the schedule of the Crier's games through next Tuesday, December 28. Bowl games of Wednesday through Friday (December 29-31)will appear in a Peanut Gallery blog next Wednesday morning.
BOWL GAMES:
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 26
LITTLE CAESARS PIZZA BOWL
Ford Field – Detroit, MI
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL vs. TOLEDO
Toledo’s Turnover Ratio of +14 tells FIU all they need to know after they’ve out-statted Toledo in 2010: "Take care of the football, win our bowl game." FIU landed in the nation’s Top 15 in Time of Possession during the regular season, boosted by a rushing offense that improved from a #107 ranking in 2009, all the way up to #15 this season.
Positive swings that large nevertheless tend to be ignored when your name is Florida International. Defensively, FIU will blitz Toledo’s original back-up quarterback Terrance Owens until the cows come home, making a raw, talented and mobile lefty more mistake-prone than he was against MAC defenses after taking over for injured starter, Austin Dantin, in late October. Owens moved the offense well enough to impress, but not necessarily well enough to trust against a quick, strange defense that has time to scheme up for him.
FIU’s defensive rushing yield of 158 yards per game is better than it looks, because Texas A&M and Pitt had 200+ and 300+ yard rushing afternoons against them in September. In conference play, that unit cut the rushing yield to a more respectable 143 yards per game. For the season, opponents converted only 35.5% on third down against FIU. This has to make Toledo backers wary, because if a drive stalls in FIU territory, Toledo’s place-kicker has missed 8 out of 13 field goal attempts this season. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL, 30-27.
MONDAY, DECEMBER 27
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
Independence Stadium – Shreveport, LA
GEORGIA TECH vs. AIR FORCE
This game has the serious case of the runs, as the nation’s top two ground games will be on display. In the last two bowl games, Paul Johnson’s Jackets have been stung by more athletic teams who had a bunch of time to prep (LSU and Iowa). The Falcons won’t need much extra time to prepare….they see a similar offense in practice every day.
But – the flyboys don’t have near the athletic horsepower of LSU or Iowa, so G-Tech should be able to bust out their own stinger this year. It’s not looking like Johnson will have starting QB Nesbitt back, but the extra bowl practices for backup Tevin Washington will be huge and the kid started a bunch of games down the stretch.
Statistically, these teams are pretty even, so whoever’s defense can get off the field quicker will likely have the edge. On the season, Tech ranked 61st nationally in 3rd down conversion percentage at 39.6%, while the Falcons ranked 112th allowing 47.5% conversions. Air Force’s inability to get off of the field coupled with Paul Johnson’s ability to beat Air Force – he had 5 straight wins in his final 5 years at Navy – will be the keys to this light upset. GEORGIA TECH, 27-24.
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 28
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
Citrus Bowl Stadium – Orlando, FL
NORTH CAROLINA STATE vs. WEST VIRGINIA
West Virginia’s defense can’t be sneezed at with its 12.8 points per game yield over the course of the season. The defense’s performance is one reason why team members and coaches have often said that West Virginia can beat anybody as long as they don’t beat themselves first.
Truth be told, that defense didn’t face a serious offense all year long in a ‘down’ Big East, and in non-conference games against Maryland and LSU offenses that were struggling mightily in September. As far as talented, playmaking opposing quarterbacks go, the best against them has been saved for last.
NC State’s Russell Wilson put on a show accounting for 210 yards in only one half of play in his most recent bowl appearance two seasons ago against a pretty solid Rutgers defense. Wolfpack head coach Tom O’Brien, with this staff, was a bowl money-maker at Boston College. He says that Wilson’s option of leaving college early for a pro baseball career has no connection with this game. Wilson had six 300+ yard passing games in his last nine.
West Virginia QB Geno Smith had five sub-200 yard passing games in his last nine outings this season, as RB Noel Devine’s productivity dropped drastically: from 6.3 and 6.1 yards per carry in 2008 and 2009, to 4.4 ypc this season. West Virginia’s 3-3-5 defense doesn’t figure to help Wilson’s relatively low completion percentage of 58.1%, but let’s consider the recent offensive staff shake-up by a meddling West Virginia athletic director who once played quarterback for the Mountaineers as a negative factor. NORTH CAROLINA STATE, 24-23.
INSIGHT BOWL
Sun Devil Stadium – Tempe, AZ
IOWA vs. MISSOURI
Drug charges, suspensions, defections…what is this Cuba? No, it’s Iowa. The post-season hasn’t been kind to Coach Ferentz – with the benching of their starting running back, the transfer of a past starting RB, and the suspension of a starting wide receiver.
That said, redemption is in the air on the Hawkeyes’ practice field, as they try to remove the taste of a three-game losing streak. Without starting play-makers, how do they do it? With defense. Iowa has been a defensive-oriented team from day one – giving up just 317 total yards per contest.
Although they averaged 30 points per game, Mizzou can be slowed if you stuff the run and pressure QB Blaine Gabbert, a kid with a strong/accurate arm, but also with happy feet. The Hawkeyes ranked 6th nationally in rush yards allowed per game and nabbed 1.4 picks per contest. It’s not gonna be easy for Gabbert to beat them with his arm and his arm alone.
On the other sideline, the Tigers also man a very tough D, but rely heavily on QB pressure and turnovers to turn the tables. Iowa runs a conservative, run-based offense that won’t allow Mizzou’s defense to do what they do best. IOWA, 20-17.
GAMES OF LOCAL INTEREST:
SATURDAY'S GAME:
DALLAS at ARIZONA*
The Cowboys are 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS since Jason Garrett was named head coach, but 1-1 ATS as the favorite. Their games have gone Over the Total 11 straight times, 12 out of 14 times this season! But Arizona averages only 260 offensive yards and only 17.9 points per game, and is using a rookie quarterback, John Skelton.
Anyone deciding to jump in and play the Over big-time on Christmas Day could be a day late and a dollar short with a lump of coal in their Totals stocking. The Arizona defense – despite good red zone numbers – often manages to bypass the red zone by allowing touchdowns from 21+ yards out. But an over-reliance by Dallas on tight-end Jason Witten (10 catches, 140 yards vs. Washington) will inevitably net lesser returns on the time and energy invested in him.
Every now and then, the Arizona defense goes wild and forces turnovers that lead to points. Dallas is off a hard-fought revenge win against NFC East rival Washington in the home finale, looking ahead to another revenge game at division-rival Philadelphia. DALLAS, 19-18.
SUNDAY'S GAME
TENNESSEE at KANSAS CITY*
Matt Cassel didn't need to be great, he just needed to suit up and represent a bigger threat than Brodie "0-10" Croyle to give his team a chance to win, and win they did, staying a game ahead of the surging Chargers in the AFC West. The Chiefs are one game up with two to go and host the schizophrenic Titans at Arrowhead, where they are 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS.
The Titans began the year strong on the road, before falling apart in their last three away from home, and end the season with this game in Kansas City and then in Indianapolis next week. Will they be able to get their offense untracked against a Chiefs defense that has played well against the run over the past two months (Knowshon Moreno excepted)? If Chris Johnson can't open up the opposing defense, Kerry Collins struggles to distribute the ball. With so much on the line, but playing at less than full strength, expect the Chiefs to pull out a win by a very close margin. KANSAS CITY, 23-20.
HOUSTON at DENVER* (Please see "Millionaire" games below.)
MONDAY'S GAME
NEW ORLEANS at ATLANTA*
With Matt Ryan as the starting quarterback, the Falcons are 19-1 SU in this stadium. That attracts betting money on Atlanta vs. the spread, but in their last two home games against “good” opponents who can move the ball and score points, as well as make defensive stops (Baltimore and Green Bay), the combined margin of point-spread coverage by the Falcons was 5 points, with the wins and covers pulled out in the final 20 seconds vs. Baltimore, and the final 9 seconds vs. Green Bay. That’s cuttin’ it pretty close!
While the 12-2 SU Falcons haven’t clinched best record in the NFC yet, the 10-4 SU Saints haven’t clinched a playoff spot yet, so they certainly need it more. The first meeting was won by the Falcons in overtime, with running backs Reggie Bush out and Pierre Thomas injured in-game for the Saints, who played it off a short week. Bush and Thomas have returned, and while the Falcons return home following three straight road wins, how much did that take out of them? NEW ORLEANS, 27-24.
MILLIONAIRE GAMES:
St. Louis shares NFC West first place with 6-8 SU Seattle, but the Niners – one game behind them - are actually 3-1 in division games. With this game, then another division clash on deck for the 49ers (home, against an Arizona team they own), 49ers head coach Mike Singletary will go from looking like a danged fool to a genius (in football, geniuses aren’t as smart as real-life geniuses), if San Francisco goes 5-1 within the division, 2-8 against everyone else, and snags the division title with a 7-9 SU record.
It could happen, because one of the current 6-8 teams has to lose the St. Louis at Seattle game next Sunday (unless they tie, which would be really cool)! San Francisco managed to beat the Rams in the first meeting, in overtime, with Troy Smith operating what he could of the post-it note playbook. But with Alex (Ugh!) Smith back behind center, the 49ers get a chance to use the two or three extra plays that Troy Smith isn’t advanced enough to execute.
It’s probably a good sign for the 49ers that despite using Troy Smith at quarterback in that game, they gained a season-high 421 offensive yards on only 59 offensive snaps. With rookie QB Sam Bradford taking too many hits and missing open receivers, and receivers dropping balls when he hits them, the Rams appear to be leaking oil nearing the finish line. SAN FRANCISCO, 24-17.
TAMPA BAY* (-5.5) over SEATTLE
"Pete the Cheat’s" Seahawks control their own destiny in the race for the NFC West division title, so this is a huge game for the Seahawks, and it comes against a Tampa Bay team whose playoff hopes have been squashed, and is only 2-12 ATS on this field since the beginning of last season.
Piece of cake for Seattle, right? Not so fast. As stated last Sunday, expecting Seattle to come through for you flies in the face of red flags labeled 1) they stink, 2) they have injuries, 3) they stink, 4) they stink. When would a 2-12 ATS home team stand its best chance of becoming a 3-12 ATS home team? When the road team is 2-5 ATS away, and gets blown out a lot.
After an 80-yard touchdown drive to open the game last Sunday, the Seahawks spent the next two quarters being outgained 218 yards to 27. Opposing running backs like big LeGarrette Blount of Tampa Bay have never met a Seattle defensive front seven player he didn’t like – to break tackles against and build up steam into the matador secondary.
"Pete the Cheat" thinks he has an ace in the hole – Seahawks’ second-season defensive coordinator, Gus Bradley, was linebackers coach for the Bucs from 2006-’08. A lot of good that did the Seahawks when the Bucs beat ’em, 24-7, at Seattle in December last year! The Bucs have eight wins, with a publicly stated goal of ten. You can’t get to ten without first going through number "9". TAMPA BAY, 31-13.
BALTIMORE (-3.5) over CLEVELAND*
Colt McCoy has been doing all right for the Browns, but if anybody in the Cleveland organization was going to answer a question truthfully, they’d say that they’d rather Jake Delhomme or another veteran like Seneca Wallace was around as an option they could choose, instead of exposing the rookie to a division rival that needs the game, and has a good defense.
The Ravens have been looking a little shoddy on defense lately, having played against last season’s NFL passing yardage leader Matt Schaub on Houston, and the NFL MVP Drew Brees on New Orleans. Houston and New Orleans got to 28 and 24 against the Ravens, who have also faced Tom Brady and New England (23 points allowed), Matt Ryan and Atlanta (24). Realistically, with those games as a barometer and Baltimore’s pre-bye week outing vs. Buffalo as a high-yield throwout (34 points allowed), what is the Cleveland offense going to get with this rookie quarterback, a running game whose top RB is getting banged-up from overuse, and wide receivers who are a cut below less-than-mediocre, when other Baltimore opponents with less-than-average offenses have been held to 9, 15, 17, 10, 13 and 10 points?
The first meeting was won by Baltimore by the score of 24-17, which Cleveland covered as a +13 underdog. That game took place after the Ravens had prepared for ultra-Wildcatting by Browns’ all-purpose back Josh Cribbs, and instead faced 22 carries for 144 yards by the surprise named Peyton Hillis. Eric Mangini blew smoke all week about Cribbs and the Wildcat, and was able to put one over on the Ravens. "You know, I never heard of him before, until he ran for 140 on us," Baltimore defensive end Terrell Suggs said earlier this week. "We sure know his name [now]. He had a great day. He broke a couple runs on us." “It was pretty streaky and it was pretty disappointing to allow a team to come out and pound the ball like that,” Baltimore linebacker Jarret Johnson said right after the game.
Baltimore will remember, and at this point in the season, everyone knows that Cribbs has been playing hurt for many weeks, and that his ability to execute that Wildcat package has been put aside. This week, Mangini has obviously told McCoy to tell the media that he expects Baltimore to blitz him. Maybe they will, maybe they won’t, but the bottom line is that Baltimore knows that Cleveland has very little offensive firepower that can hurt them. The Ravens can feel the Browns out early, and then pin their ears back after their offense takes advantage of a banged-up Cleveland defense and is playing with a lead.
“You want to make them as uncomfortable as you can, and all of that starts with stopping the run,” says Ravens’ defensive coordinator Greg Mattison. “The thing you have to do with a young guy, especially, is you’ve got to make him one-dimensional.” McCoy has been sacked 19 times, holding onto the football too long in the pocket instead of chucking it away when nobody is open soon enough. He didn’t play against Baltimore in the first game. Seneca Wallace, their “mobile” quarterback did.
In the last four games, Cleveland’s offense has converted only 23.5% on third down, as what they’ve been doing becomes less effective due to exposure, and the right side of the offensive line took a hit with a season-ending injury to OT Tony Pashos. Nice headline this week: “Cleveland Browns CB Joe Haden Deserves Rookie of the Year Consideration.” Haden was only used in nickel situations in the first meeting. Now, with injuries to Eric Wright, he is starting, and Anquan Boldin is probably very happy about that. BALTIMORE, 27-10.
HOUSTON (-2.5) over DENVER* (TOTAL OVER 48.5)
Now that there's nothing left to play for, we can expect to see the best of the Houston Texans. After all, the NFL's softest team excels at playing well when the pressure is off, and with recent comments by ownership intimating that Gary Kubiak will somehow retain his job next season, the Texans should be able to play free and loose against a Broncos team in turmoil.
Things are so bad in Denver that interim coach Eric Studesville had no choice but to start Tim Tebow - a decision he surely would not have made had Kyle Orton been healthy enough to suit up. After all, an interim coach's first and foremost goal is to win games to increase his chances of being considered for a longer-term position, but Studesville has no such luxury.
How wise was it to have a pass-laden offense in a place where home games could be played in cold, wind, and snow? Not too wise, but it’s a moot point. Denver is a dead piece as far as the playoffs are concerned, the head coach with the supposedly brilliant mind has been fired, and Tim Tebow is quarterbacking the Broncos, for better or worse. The weather will be pretty nice – mid-50s temperatures and not too much wind.
What generally happens with a new quarterback like Tebow is that the opposing defense gets thrown off its rhythm because the offense is doing unexpected things. Tebow, of course, will make some mistakes and help create good set-ups for the Houston offense, which knows how to move the ball and score points. Denver running back Knowshon Moreno and wide receiver Demaryius Thomas have missed multiple games with injuries this season, but both went through two consecutive days of practice this week and appear to be good to go.
Houston gets 303 passing yards per game, so should anyone be worried about Denver’s defense getting a huge boost from the return of 16-year veteran Brian Dawkins in the secondary? They were giving up a lot of yards when he wasn’t injured. Denver’s defense has gotten the fewest takeaways in the NFL, which, when your defense is about to face an offense averaging 390 yards per game, is good news for that offense and a sign that they won’t be interrupted much in their marches towards the goal line. HOUSTON, 37-25.
SAN DIEGO (-7.5) over CINCINNATI*
The 3-win Bengals finally ended a long losing streak last week by de-emphasizing their malcontent wide receivers and focusing on the running game, which was actually the formula they rode last year on their way to the AFC North title. Maybe the coaches realized, three months too late, that it's not a great idea to tinker with what works.
In either case, such gimmicks will prove futile against a red-hot Chargers squad that gives up the fewest yards per game overall, and ranks third in the NFL in run defense. If it weren't for their early-season special teams issues, the Chargers would be right up there with the Patriots as toast of the AFC, but this late season rally still has them in position to make the playoffs.
San Diego is coming off an extra three days of rest after playing last Thursday, and should have no problems decimating a Bengals squad that has folded against good opposition all year long. The Bengals need more than just a running game to hang with San Diego’s offense, but with Terrell Owens likely out, and Chad Ochocinco hobbled, the Chargers’ defense doesn’t have to be too honest and they can also bang Jordan Shipley around and/or come after Carson Palmer with less fear of being burned. SAN DIEGO, 37-17.
NEWSLETTER RESULTS - Week #16
Week #16 resulted in a profit again for the Crier, as he won 4.7 units going 4-3 ATS. For the first 16 weeks of the season, the record is now 190-117 (almost 62% for the mathematically-challenged) for a cumulative profit of 99.6 units.
By playing the newsletter games, your results should have been the same as or close to the Crier's results depending on your lines compared to the Crier's with maybe a 5-10% margin of difference, either way.
For those smart and lucky ones who have been receiving and following the Crier's selections, bowl coverage will be extended over the course of the next two issues with coverage of twelve and then five bowl games.
For those football followers who want to play hoops, contact the Crier and he will e-mail you the daily action starting January 3 through the end of the regular NBA season in mid-April.
Good Luck, as we continue in the backstretch of the season playing with "house money". Last week's newsletter results follow:
Week #16 (using Crier’s lines):
Date W/L Team Line Opponent Amt. Of Play Final Score
Dec. 18 W Troy (N) -1.5 Ohio SBB 48-21
Dec. 19 W Carolina* -2.5 Arizona RP 19-12
Dec. 19 W Atlanta -6 Seattle* BB 34-18
Dec. 19 L Dallas* -6.5 Washington RP 33-30
Dec. 19 L Pittsburgh* -5.5 NY Jets RP 17-22
Dec. 19 L New England* -14 Green Bay RP 31-27
Dec. 20 W Chicago -6 Minnesota* BB 40-14
* - Home team
N - Neutral site
SBB - Super Best Bet (3 units)
BB - Best Bet (2 units)
RP - Regular Play (1 unit)
Week #16
Type of Wager: W-L (excludes “pushes”); Profit/Loss (Cumulative in parentheses)
NFL Results ATS
Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (1-1 = 50%; -.3 units)
Best Bets: 2-0 = 100%; +4 units (30-19 = 61.2%; +18.2 units)
Regular Plays: 1-3 = 25%; -2.3 units (32-25 = 56.1%; +4.5 units)
Week #16 Totals: 3-3 = 50%; +1.7 units (63-45 = 58.3%; +22.4 units)
College Football Results ATS
Super Best Bets: 1-0 = 100%; +3 units (10-2 = 83.3%; +23.4 units)
Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (49-32 = 60.5%; +27.6 units)
Regular Plays: 0-0 = 0%; 0 (68-38 = 64.2%: +26.2 units)
Week #16 Totals: 1-0 = 100%; +3 units (127-72 = 63.8%; +77.2 units)
Total Combined NFL and College Football Results ATS
Super Best Bets: 1-0 = 100%; +3 units (11-3 = 78.6%; +23.1 units)
Best Bets: 2-0 = 100%; +4 units (79-51 = 60.8%; +45.8 units)
Regular Plays: 1-3 = 25%; -2.3 units (100-63 = 61.3%; +30.7 units)
Week #16 Totals: 4-3 = 57.1%; +4.7 units (190-117 = 61.9%; +99.6 units)
THE CRIER/SR
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