CRIER'S CORNER - FOR READING PURPOSES ONLY!
Written by: SR Crew
Date posted: 9/17/2010
HOW POINT SPREAD RECORDS MISLEAD!
"Who won with the Saints on the NFL’s opening Thursday night?
Who lost with the Saints on the NFL’s opening Thursday night? Who won with the Vikings on the NFL’s opening Thursday night? Who lost with the Vikings on the NFL’s opening Thursday night? Who pushed with either side?
Do you see why we often say that “ATS Records” are kind of a joke? How is the point-spread result of that game supposed to be recorded by sports information outlets when one sportsbook can have five different people that bet on the game who get five different results? Wait, make that six different people getting six different results on the same game, because some people out there no doubt middled it. (The Saints opened -6.5, the line dipped to as low as -4.5, and the 14-9 Saints victory landed on 5, one of many different lines offered on the game.)
A missed extra point by the Vikings was the main reason for any New Orleans winners or pushes. The final score should have been 14-10. Another example of why we all need to find sides that crush the spread, rather than leave the outcome to random, low-percentage oddities, otherwise known as luck." END.
LOCAL GAMES OF INTEREST
Last week's local games were 6-3 SU (10-3 cumulative) and 5-4 ATS (9-4 cumulative), although they were not meant to be wagered. They were for reading purposes only.
For reading purposes only, below are the SR Crew write-ups on this week's games of local interest:
SATURDAY'S GAMES
AIR FORCE at OKLAHOMA*
Quirky opposing offenses have given the Sooners fits in the past. After the Sooners put it to their head coach’s little brother, defensive coordinator of Florida State, Oklahoma’s D.C. Venables has only a normal week to prepare for the shell-game offense of visiting Air Force.
Power conference teams do not define themselves by targeting and conquering Mountain West teams loaded with athletes playing a unique system who are not NFL-bound. Oklahoma sacked the Florida State quarterback four times last Saturday, but they won’t get to the Air Force QB because he’ll only throw it 4 or 5 times.
Defensively, the pass has been Air Force’s weakness in the past, but when your D allows only 88 passing yards to BYU, strides have obviously been made. OKLAHOMA, 31-23.
BAYLOR at TCU*
If you slow Baylor QB Griffin, you slow Baylor. Last year, the Bears saw their yards per carry average dip from 4.9 to 3.5 because Griffin was knocked out in Week 3. TCU has the team speed at all levels of their defense to keep the super junior for going off. Offensively, Baylor’s front seven can be exposed with a power running game and that’s exactly what TCU brings to this party. TCU, 35-16.
TEXAS at TEXAS TECH* (please see Millionaire section below)
NORTHWESTERN at RICE*
Rice is never out of it. Northwestern never has a game in the bag. Why Rice head coach Bailiff is starting inexperienced McHargue over Fanuzzi at quarterback is anyone’s guess, but if he comes to his senses and goes with Fanuzzi from start to finish, he’d be doing the offense, the defense allegedly supporting it, the fans, and Rice backers a favor. NORTHWESTERN, 28-26.
HOUSTON at UCLA*
Houston Heisman candidate QB Keenum’s status is unknown after leaving Friday’s win over UTEP with a head injury. 0-2 home team UCLA does matchup well defensively with the Cougar aerial attack – it’s the rushing defense that has killed UCLA.
Both K-State and Stanford gashed the Bruins for 200+, so the home team will be happy to see a more finesse offense invade their turf this week. UCLA, 27-26.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at TEXAS A&M*
Unlike the Rutgers team that FIU hung with last season and last week, the A&M coaching staff doesn’t use its September games to play between the 20s and leave it to their defense to prevent the other team from winning while it uses vanilla offense to the dissatisfaction of ticket-paying fans and bettors alike.
They know how to work home-field advantage at College Station, and they enjoy running up scores when they can, before they get some run up against them against Big 12 opponents who can bully the bullies. TEXAS A&M, 41-9.
SUNDAY'S GAMES
PITTSBURGH at TENNESSEE*
No team has as much upside as the Titans this year – this is a team that already has the foundations in place for a 13-3 season like 2008, when they started 10-0 SU & 8-1-1 ATS, and a mature Vince Young could represent a serious upgrade from Kerry Collins while Chris Johnson has developed into the most feared running back in the NFL.
Pittsburgh’s defense looked to have regained its swagger, but the offense was definitely handicapped by Dennis Dixon, who is still extremely raw and unpolished despite his physical gifts. While Atlanta kept the score low, they also did not take advantage of turnover opportunities against a plodding Steelers offense – something that the Titans will exploit with their bevy of defensive playmakers.
CJ2K is the battering ram that will ultimately bust a long run, as he seems to do in every game, as the Titans defend their home territory. TENNESSEE, 24-17.
CHICAGO at DALLAS*
The Bears got 463 offensive yards against a lousy Detroit defense, and an “L” ATS. Quarterback Jay Cutler’s team is now 17-37-1 ATS when he starts. He and the rest of Chicago’s offense moves up in class of defense, as Dallas led the NFC in fewest points allowed last season.
However, Dallas’ defensive QB Rating of 83.5 wasn’t so spectacular, just middle of the road. Luckily for the Cowboys, the Bears have the Clown College coordinators Martz and Marinelli. Also, Julius Peppers, the defensive end acquired by the Bears to improve their pass rush (he already knocked out one NFC North starting quarterback) has been invisible against them the last two times the teams met.
Romo’s ability to throw on the run helps elude the rush, too. Dallas’ offensive line has question marks, but Cutler was sacked four times by the Lions and Dallas’ defensive front has been bringing more effective pressure for longer than Detroit’s newly pieced together defense. Just want to remind everyone – Zone Blitz Law, based on way under-the-radar defensive numbers from ’09, has Dallas being pretty bad this year vs. general very high expectations. DALLAS, 20-13.
WASHINGTON at HOUSTON*
Much family and friend involvement here. See if you can follow this: Houston head coach Gary Kubiak was a long-time offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach for Washington’s current head coach Mike Shanahan when they were having successful seasons with the Denver Broncos.
Shanahan’s son Kyle has been Kubiak’s offensive coordinator in Houston for the last two seasons, but is now his father’s offensive coordinator for the Redskins. Kyle undoubtedly brought the Texans’ offensive playbook with him from Houston to Washington. The guy who replaces him in Houston, Rick Dennison, spent 24 years in the Denver system, the model that Houston used to build its offense, an offense that the Shanahan clan knows like the back of its hand.
So, when you put it “under” a microscope, it all seems to make this Sunday a really good day to be a defensive player on either side, since they’ll know what’s coming and both Dennison and young Shanahan are in their first season as play-callers (Kubiak called them for Shanahan, Jr.). Houston usually compiles a good record out of their division: 14-6 SU last two years. None of those wins came after achieving the super-duper high of beating their AFC South rival Colts. HOUSTON, 13-12.
MONDAY'S GAME
NEW ORLEANS at SAN FRANCISCO*
The Saints have a slight weakness, which is playing against the more “physical” teams in the NFL. In New Orleans’ Super Bowl winning season last year, the Saints were nevertheless 0-4 ATS vs. the physical-rush foes in their division, Carolina and Atlanta.
They were 0-1 ATS vs. Dallas’ big offensive line and posse of running backs. They were 0-1 ATS vs. Minnesota’s big offensive line and Adrian Peterson (didn't cover). They should have been 0-1 ATS vs. Miami, another physical, run-oriented offense, but Miami imploded with offensive mistakes.
San Francisco is known as a physical offensive team, mostly because Mike Singletary wants them to be. They handled the finessey Arizona team last season (2-0 SU and ATS) and also covered easily in a very close game against the finessey Colts. All of this will be forgotten because the 49ers were destroyed by the Seahawks, 31-6, on Sunday. But after Seattle imported a bunch of ex-49ers, and somebody among them had to have brought the offensive and defensive playbooks and sideline signals along with them, this set-up could be similar to the one which preceded New England’s 2003 Week 2 rout of Philadelphia after they’d lost 31-0 to Buffalo in the infamous Lawyer Milloy game. SAN FRANCISCO, 20-19.
WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE?
Last week's Millionaire games were 1-2-2 ATS and are now 3-2 ATS (excludes "pushes") for the season.
$ATURDAY'$ GAME$
TEXAS over TEXAS TECH* by 34
For television purposes, this one is being played early, which mitigates Tech’s home field advantage a bit. It wouldn’t matter anyways…this is an especially lousy matchup for the Red Raiders.
Texas’ rush offense was bad last year and hasn’t been entirely right this season. It’ll get healthy in Lubbock. Tech’s transition pains of moving to a 3-4 scheme combined with heavy personnel losses haven’t been felt as they’ve played pass happy SMU and lowly New Mexico.
The Longhorns are in a completely different galaxy than those clubs and they’ll come out and pound the rock right at Tech. That pounding will open up the passing game for Texas QB Gilbert, who had the chance to air it out a bit last week. Tech has the passing offense to play chase, but that offense is also new and hasn’t faced a defense that could compete with Texas’ second team.
The Red Raider offensive line had to learn new schemes and smaller splits this off-season and this is their first big boy test of the year. They won’t pass. Couple up-front pressure with the Longhorn secondary that could be the best in the nation and you get a long day for Tech QB Potts on his home turf.
After last week’s win over Wyoming, Texas coach Mack Brown noted that he was very happy heading into Big 12 play….you get the feeling that this game is their “real” first game. TEXAS, 41-7.
BALL STATE at PURDUE* (TOTAL UNDER 49.5)
Life tosses a softball at the Purdue defense. Ball State ’s unfortunate motto: “Give me Liberty Western Illinois , Purdue’s pass offense managed only 5.0 yards per attempt as QB Marve still talks a better game than he plays. Given that his top wideout Keith Smith (12 catches against Notre Dame in the opener) figures to be injured and out, this looks like an ‘Under’ the radar total opportunity. PURDUE, 23-5.
VIRGINIA TECH* (-19) over EAST CAROLINA“There are no excuses, but the short week is a tough deal”, said V-Tech coach Beamer this week. Whilst they should have beaten James Madison if kickoff was 5 minutes after the Boise game ended, it was apparent last week that the physical and emotional fire of that Boise game burned the Hokies.
This was a cleansing week. The V-Tech coaching staff went back to the board and will be adding an extra blocker on the line to juice the power running game. East Carolina, a team that gave up 413 yards to lowly Memphis, will want no part of backs Williams and Evans by the second quarter.
Defensively – watch for the home team to blitz with their front seven while asking their secondary to cover man-to-man. The Pirates run the old Texas Tech passing game and you cannot let the QB sit back and pick you apart. V-Tech’s defensive strength is their secondary and those kids will cover like a two year old’s blanket while their defensive mates plant ECU QB Davis in the Lane Stadium turf.
Back to last week – yes – it was a terrible loss for Beamer’s bunch. In the first half, they had 15 first downs to JMU’s one….but they lacked spark in the second half and the ball bounced the other way. Will not happen this week. As for the Pirates, Memphis, who had under 250 yards in week one vs. Mississippi State, moved the ball with ease on ECU. The 49-27 final score was very much a function of 12 and 24-yard ECU TD drives brought about by Memphis turnovers and by a pick 6. That’s 21 points in 36 yards.
They’re taking a major step up in class this week and those easy points will go the way of the Do-Do bird. In Wall Street terms, ECU is that tech company with a really cool idea but with a weak business plan….looks good on the surface, but there ain’t much behind it. The bottom falls out on Saturday. VIRGINIA TECH, 45-14.
COLORADO STATE (+8) over MIAMI-OH*
RedHawks are still feasting off the Florida leftovers from week #1. Sure, they were competitive, but the Gators eight fumbles definitely helped. Last week, they were pushed to the edge by an Eastern Michigan team that hasn’t won since November 2008. That was Miami’s home and MAC opener, so don’t look for them to be as jacked this week vs. a non-conference, non-regional CSU bunch that has lost 11 straight.
The home team is trying to build a team identity based on power running and run defense. That is music to the visiting defense’s ears, which are coming off of a lambasting at the hands of Nevada – a team that runs a dynamic spread offense keyed by a super-dynamic QB. The Ram front seven is good and will play much better this week when asked to simply go and hit somebody instead of trying to read what the offense is doing and then react.
As for Colorado State’s offense, true freshman QB Pete Thomas is starting to settle in and he has two road games under his belt already. Miami head coach Haywood applauded his 20th-ranked run defense several times this week and he’ll stack the box, forcing Thomas to beat ‘em. First of all, that #20 is a function of Florida’s week one and EMU’s general ineptitude. Secondly, head Ram Fairchild and his staff are good with QBs and their young QB is poised to have a nice game, especially if he sees 8 or 9 guys in the box.
There will not be a lot of scoring here, so taking eight points with the hungrier team is a no-brainer. COLORADO STATE, 20-17.
NAVY at LOUISIANA TECH* (TOTAL OVER 50)
The Middies have scored just 27 points this season…offense isn’t exactly travelling at 50 knots. Let’s take a closer look. In game #1, Maryland had the off-season to prep for Navy’s triple option and it was critical that the Terps win that game after a 2-win season in 2009. Still – Navy racked up 485 yards on the Turtles, but could not “Seal” their drives with scores.
Last week, they took on Georgia Southern, who runs the same triple option attack and sees it in practice every day. No wonder neither team moved the ball. Enter week three vs. a La Tech club under the direction of first year coach Sonny Dykes – the guy who directed Texas Tech’s wild passing offense and then moved to Arizona to spice them up a bit. In this week’s pressers, Dykes spoke time and time again about getting the offense going, finding rhythm and timing, improvement at QB. Dude loves offense.
It is the home opener and he wants to give the fans that up-tempo offensive show that he promised in the off-season. What about the D? Well – they gave up over 200 yards on the ground to pass-oriented Texas A&M last week and they’ve had just this week to prep for the triple option. That bodes well for the Middies who put up 290 on the ground vs. La Tech last year and could breach 300 here…especially given the fact that the clock will stop often given the home team’s emphasis on throwing the football.
Navy QB Ricky Dobbs’ injured ankle will serve to keep the total even lower, but he’ll play. Even if he is forced to rest it, the option machine will continue to churn. NAVY, 41-24.
MISSISSIPPI STATE (+8) over LSU*
The Tigers enter at 2-0 after a prime-time win vs. UNC and a 24-point victory over Vandy. Closer inspection reveals some major issues with the club. QB Jordan Jefferson hasn’t looked good and that’s led to “2 QB system” talk. Head coach Les Miles noted this week that they’ll stick with one, but that he wants JJ to run more option. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the kid’s passing skills.
LSU is last in the league in passing at 132 yards per game…so maybe coach is on to something. Mississippi State has a nice defense and the kids can plug the run. They saw Auburn’s running QB Newton last week, so they’re greased and ready for Mr. Mobile behind center meaning that the Tigers will have to throw it to move it. That Auburn game was played on Thursday, so they’ve also had an extra two days to rest/prep…or as coach Mullen called it this week – “bonus time.”
Mississippi State’s offense didn’t look great last week, but it was the victim of six dropped passes – something that the coaching staff drilled over and over again this week. Mullen’s offense is dynamic and they should be able to move the ball against a solid SEC D.
When asked about this week’s game, Tiger coach Miles said, “The game plan’s well under way. I like the way the team has taken to it. There are a lot of things we’ve done in the past.” Okay – well in that case – it’s highly likely that your opponent has seen you do those same things in the past. MISSISSIPPI STATE, 20-19.
$UNDAY'$ GAME$
KANSAS CITY (+3) over CLEVELAND*
We like to play off the Monday Night game whenever possible (actually, it’s always possible, isn’t it? How about, ‘when appropriate?’). The Monday Night game is the game watched by more people than any other, and the majority of them watch the game with their eyes, which they also use to read box scores (which can be very misleading). Very often, playing off the Monday Night game lands us against the side that traveling off a short week and a win, especially when that win came against a division rival. The Chiefs are one of those traditional ‘go-against’ teams, coming off the win against AFC West rival San Diego. So, why the change? Got a minute?
Very often, the team traveling off the short week and the big win is favored. The Chiefs are an underdog. Not by much, but there is a slight cushion for error. They also lost to the Browns last season, so they are playing with revenge. With San Francisco on their home field next week, there is no real look-ahead situation for Kansas City. Cleveland won four straight games to close the 2009 season and a lot of people thought that was a wonderful sign for 2010. Maybe it was. But a 14-3 lead that turns into a 17-14 defeat at Tampa Bay could be a sign that the wonderful sign was a fake. Three of the season-closing wins last year were home, all of them in some odd conditions:
• • Dec. 10, vs. Pittsburgh: 15 degrees, (-6 degrees wind chill), 25-48 mph winds.
• • Dec. 20, at KC: Extra prep time coming off Thursday night home game vs. Steelers.
• • Dec. 27, vs. Oakland: 34 degrees, Oakland off rare win at Denver.
• • Jan. 3, vs. Jacksonville: 16 degrees (-1 degree wind chill), 20 mph winds.
So now that last season’s relatively meaningless wins that occurred with extra time in advance or in ridiculously chilly-willy conditions -- twice against warm-weather bad visitors -- are behind them, what’s ahead for the Browns? Probably not much.
Mike Holmgren, the new general manager, is in a win-win situation as far as his job as First-Season Front Office Big-Wig is concerned. He didn’t hire head coach Eric Mangini or any of Mangini’s assistants whose tenure began last season. If they win, ‘hey, great, you can still work here.’ If not, then front-Office Big-Wigs generally want their own people in key places, and Holmgren will be burning up the free minutes calling the types of veteran NFL coaches he prefers, not the relative kiddie corps coach-coordinator trio of Mangini, Daboll and Rob Ryan.
Daboll called plays in the NFL for the first time last season. The results were poor. It doesn’t matter that the personnel wasn’t much. Daboll’s best calls were planning to run the ball with extra tight ends in the wintertime, and giving the ball to RB Jerome Harrison in bad weather on every other play. Unfortunately for him, not every game over the course of an NFL 16-game schedule will allow an offense to get away with such simplicity and still succeed.
Browns #1 QB Jake Delhomme has played one real game for the team, threw 2 INTs, they lost the game, and now he missed practice on Wednesday. Seneca Wallace is the back-up plan, but he requires a different type of offensive package for best results, and he’d be trying to play four quarters with the starters for his first time as a Brown.
On the other side, the Chiefs’ short week is offset by having a pair of veteran coordinators who have been through this drill a zillion times, Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennell. Rockin’ Romeo, of course, was fired by the Browns and collected a salary from them last season. Off a loss to Tampa Bay, Mangini’s hold on his job security is tied to his lousy team’s ability to beat the guy he replaced, who has had this game circled since he was hired in January.
Crennell and Weis were Mangini’s superiors in New England and are in position to be his superior today. The Chiefs were out-gained 386 to 166 on Monday Night, but found a way to score three TDs, something they couldn’t have done a year ago, when they were pointing for now. KANSAS CITY, 23-13.
SEATTLE at DENVER* (TOTAL UNDER 35)
The Broncos outgained the Jags in their opener, 363-299, but had trouble finishing off drives. They should continue having trouble finishing off drives, given that their offensive line has a bunch of new players on it and their receivers appear to be a cut below NFL par. Eddie Royal and Mike Williams missed practice time this week, and Deymarious Thomas is likely to be inactive for the second straight week.
Besides a so-so passing game, the Broncos are dealing with enough dissatisfaction in the run game to have gone out and acquired Laurence Maroney from the New England Patriots in an attempt to light a fire under second-year player Knowshawn Moreno.
Meanwhile, Seahawks head coach, Pete Carroll, is dealing with offensive line issues of his own, and Seattle is starting a new right guard this week, Shawn Andrews, acquired from Philadelphia last week. "We're kind of pointing to when Russell [Okung] gets back," he told the Seattle P-I paper Thursday. "Our best football is down the road. It might be 4-5 weeks until we see how well we can really run the ball."
In the NFL, if you can’t run the ball better than average, you can’t go out and throw it all over the place and expect to score a lot. Denver’s veteran secondary is unlikely to get burned badly in Seattle’s short-pass offense that seeks to get yards after the catch. Seems like a game destined to be played between the 20s. DENVER, 16-10.
NEWSLETTER RESULTS!
For those of you who were brave enough to sign up to get the free weekly SR newsletter and actually played and followed the rules, your results should have been the same as or close to the Crier's results depending on your lines compared to the Crier's. The Crier's results last week were 12-9 ATS for a profit of + 4.8 units.
For the season, the Crier is 23-13 ATS for a profit of +17.3 units.
Week #2 (using Crier’s lines):
Date W/L Team Line Opponent Amt. Of Play Final Score
Sept. 9 W New Orleans* -4.5 Minnesota RP 14-9
Sept. 9 W Central Michigan Under 48.5 Temple* SBB 10+13=23
Sept. 11 L Georgia Tech -13.5 Kansas* RP 25-28
Sept. 11 T Duke +6 Wake Forest* BB 48-54
Sept. 11 L Wisconsin* -37.5 San Jose State RP 27-14
Sept. 11 L Iowa State +13.5 Iowa* RP 7-35
Sept. 11 L Florida State +7 Oklahoma* BB 17-47
Sept. 11 W Michigan +3.5 Notre Dame* BB 28-24
Sept. 11 W Eastern Michigan +14 Miami OH* RP 21-28
Sept. 11 W Syracuse Over 47.5 Washington* RP 20+41=61
Sept. 11 W Toledo Under 52.5 Ohio* RP 20+13=33
Sept. 11 W San Diego State -13 New Mexico State* BB 41-21
Sept. 11 L USC* -19.5 Virginia RP 17-7
Sept. 11 L North Texas* -2.5 Rice BB 31-32
Sept. 12 W Miami -3 Buffalo* BB 15-10
Sept. 12 L Atlanta -1 Pittsburgh* RP 9-15
Sept. 12 W Detroit +6.5 Chicago* BB 14-19
Sept. 12 W New England* -4.5 Cincinnati RP 38-24
Sept. 12 W Jacksonville* -1.5 Denver RP 24-17
Sept. 12 L Philadelphia* +3 Green Bay BB 20-27
Sept. 12 T San Francisco Under 37 Seattle* RP 6+31=37
Sept. 13 W Baltimore +2 NY Jets* RP 10-9
Sept. 13 L San Diego -4 Kansas City* RP 14-21
* - Home team
N - Neutral site
SBB - Super Best Bet (3 units)
BB - Best Bet (2 units)
RP - Regular Play (1 unit)
Combined NFL and College Football Results ATS
Type of Wager: W-L (excludes “pushes”); Profit/Loss (Cumulative)
Super Best Bets: 1-0 = 100%; +3 units (3-0 = 100%; +9 units)
Best Bets: 4-3 = 57.1%; + 1.4 units (7-4 = 63.6%; +5.2 units)
Regular Plays: 7-6 = 53.8%; +.4 units (13-9 = 59.1%; +3.1 units)
Week #2 Totals: 12-9 = 57.1%; +4.8 units (23-13 = 63.9%; +17.3 units)
SR CREW
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Life tosses a softball at the Purdue defense. Ball State’s unfortunate motto: “Give me Liberty, and give me death.” Coach Parrish is already so dissatisfied with the offense under incumbent lousy starting quarterback Kelly Page that he is considering making a change to a true freshman. Against Western Illinois, Purdue’s pass offense managed only 5.0 yards per attempt as QB Marve still talks a better game than he plays. Given that his top wideout Keith Smith (12 catches against Notre Dame in the opener) figures to be injured and out, this looks like an ‘Under’ the radar total opportunity. PURDUE, 23-5.
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