Written by: SR Crew
Date posted: 9/24/2010
LOCAL GAMES OF INTEREST
Last week's local games were 7-3 SU (17-6 cumulative) and 6-4 ATS (15-8 cumulative), although they were not meant to be wagered. They were for reading purposes only.
For reading purposes only, below are the SR Crew write-ups on this week's games of local interest:
TULANE at HOUSTON*
Toledo Bob and his Tulane twits generally get marched on, around, and over by opposing offenses with the balance and proven productivity of Houston’s 500 Yards Per Game Club. There is no way that we’ll say that with Houston playing without injured #1 and #2 QBs Keenum and Turner still can’t sock it to Tulane. Against Tulane, the system might still work. Most do. HOUSTON, 34-13.
OKLAHOMA at CINCINNATI*
Before the season started, this looked like a good spot for Cincinnati on paper. Now, with the offensive line unable to protect a smaller-than-average quarterback, it’s not looking good at all. The Bearcats said they’d get their protection issues fixed at NC State after allowing 8 sacks to Fresno State’s defense in our targeted anti-Cincinnati win in Week #1. They didn’t.
NC State brought the pressure and brought down Collaros five times. Oklahoma’s defensive front seven is seeing fresh meat and salivating about sacks, and playing on third-and-longs. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 8 TD passes in three games, so Oklahoma’s QB with two last names has a chance to enhance them in this match-up after his running backs pummel Cincy’s d-line and puts that unit on its heels again.
The best thing that could happen for an Oklahoma backer in this affair would be the 27-24 final score of the Air Force game because as we noted, elite programs do not measure themselves against quirky styles of weaker conference opponents. Cincinnati’s defense has been shredded repeatedly and they haven’t even faced a big, powerful running back yet like they’ll face in this game. OKLAHOMA, 51-21.
OREGON STATE at BOISE STATE*
There are three certainties in life – death, taxes, and Boise State will be ready to play every week. Oregon State must, must bring their A+ game to compete. Giving up 453 yards and 33 minutes of possession to offensive softy Louisville last week isn’t a good sign. Plus, Boise isn’t stupid. They know that of the 47 skill position touches the Beavers had last week, Jacquizz Rodgers had 29. Slow him, slow Oregon State. BOISE STATE, 37-23.
UCLA at TEXAS*
The Bruins put up points vs. a C-USA defensive lightweight last week, but the UCLA offense vs. the Texas defense is like coach Neuheisel punching Mike Tyson – it won’t make a dent. This is a Texas Tech/Oklahoma sandwich for Texas, so look for the Horns to “work on things” after they get up by two or three scores early. TEXAS, 31-10.
BAYLOR at RICE*
Rice head coach David Bailiff is way too busy jerking his team around by shuffling quarterbacks all over the place. When he isn’t doing that, here’s what he has to say: “We have to continue offensively to work on ball security, eliminating the dumb penalties, and establishing the line of scrimmage.” Not exactly what you want to hear about a potential investment with uncertainty behind center. Rice’s defense will be Matadoring as Baylor QB Griffin zips by, and after getting only 2 catches vs. TCU, Baylor wideout Kendall Wright will be a much bigger factor vs. a much lesser defense. BAYLOR, 34-27.
Texas A&M and Texas Tech are off this week.
SUNDAY'S GAMES
TENNESSEE at NY GIANTS*
The Steelers’ 3-4 defense had answers for containing Tennessee’s leggy backfield that features QB Vince Young and RB Chris Johnson. But that was a different defense of a familiar foe. Jeff Fisher explained Young’s stinkeroo, and the Titans’ 7 turnovers, thusly: “That defense has created some very difficult opportunities for a number of quarterbacks in this league year after year after year, even the most veteran quarterbacks.” Fair enough.
The Giants’ 4-3 plays the Titans once every four years, and may not have the right answers. Keith Bulluck is an ex-Titan linebacker currently playing for New York, but young speed can often trump slower experience, especially when the offensive line in front of the young speed is as good as Tennessee’s. Michael Boley is a quick outside backer for the Giants, but Johnson is quicker.
The Giants need to put Tennessee’s offense in bad down-and-distance situations and pressure Young, but with Johnson's ability to get good yardage on first down, that might not be possible. The quick Titans on artificial turf could be just a little too zippy for the Giants, whose defense is scrimmaging along under new coordinator Perry Fewell and might jell when the division games come up. The Tennessee defense won’t get two easier assignments back-to-back than the Raiders in Jason Campbell’s first game as quarterback, and Pittsburgh with the two-headed Batch/Dixon ugly monster, so let the track meet begin ‘over’ here. TENNESSEE, 35-30.
ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS* (please see "Millionaire" section below)
DALLAS at HOUSTON* (please see "Millionaire" section below)
WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE?
Last week's Millionaire games were 5-3 ATS and are now 8-5 ATS (excludes "pushes") for the season.
$ATURDAY'$ GAME$
BYU* (+4) over NEVADA
The Cougars were running a two-headed QB system…that is until one of those kids was hurt for the season last week. That puts the job squarely on the shoulders of true freshman Jake Heaps. He was solid in game one, a home game, and a bit more skittish in the next two, both on the road. That’s not surprising given his youth.
Not only is he back in Provo this week, but he’s going against a very suspect Nevada defense, especially the secondary that is giving up 402 yards and 5.2 yards per carry this year. Heaps is the prototypical BYU QB and the offense will get back to what it does best – chucking the ball around the yard then gashing a softened defense with the run. Heaps will have much more time than he did last week vs. FSU and he also has the benefit of having RB J.J. DiLuigi in the backfield. Who? DiLuigi is a play-maker who can run and catch – you’ll see him on Sports Center Saturday night.
Both will be playing behind a solid offensive line who will be asked to out-muscle the smaller Nevada d-line as they play keep away from the potent Wolfpack offense. As for the Cougar D against that offense – they have not played particularly well this season – but they have faced three mobile QBs in three games. Nevada’s Kaepernick is super-mobile and will make plays, but BYU boss Mendenhall is a defensive-oriented guy who will have his guys prepared.
When asked about playing the role of the home underdog this week, Mendenhall quipped, “It’s a role we’ve earned.” Backing the seemingly downtrodden home dog who is 25-3 in their last 28 home games…well…that’s a role in which we’ll earn. BYU, 38-30.
MICHIGAN* (-25.5) over BOWLING GREEN
Michigan’s defense dismantled a pass-oriented MAC offense on opening day last season when Western Michigan came to the Big House with a fifth-year senior, three-season starter at quarterback. The score was 31-0 at halftime and Michigan’s offense – at that point, still short-circuiting on too many snaps – achieved some nice balance and scoring despite its relative inexperience at that point.
The best thing that could have happened to a prospective Michigan backer for this game was Michigan’s 42-37 sweat job against Massachusetts last Saturday. UMass is a good team, with an offensive system designed by Chip Kelly (current Oregon head coach). "We need to get better on defense right now," said Rodriguez. "I just came from the quietest winning locker-room I've ever seen."
If he plays the starters for more snaps than he did against UMass, and doesn’t spread the offense around to as many players as he did against UMass, then things will tidy up nicely and scoreboard separation ensues as BG moves up in class of opposing defense after Troy (ugh!), Tulsa (double-ugh!) and Marshall. MICHIGAN, 52-14.
UTEP* (-11.5) over MEMPHIS
The Miners may have struck gold with the news of Houston’s first and second string QB’s being lost for the season. Even Mike Price noted what that could mean for the C-USA West – “I guess that opens things up.”
With its offensive balance, UTEP is in a great position to take advantage and it starts Saturday. Memphis is giving up an average of 497 yards on the road this season and you can expect the home team offense –that is putting up an average of 466 yards per game – to worsen Memphis’ defensive blues. QB Vittatoe has been “on” so far this season and that is without the team’s best offensive player, RB Buckram, in the lineup.
Good news UTEP backers – Buckram is expected to play this week. Price said that he has looked great and could have played last week, but they wanted to give him more reps in practice. Coupled with the dynamic play-making ability of QB/WR Thomas, you get an offensive arsenal that rivaled Houston’s prior to Keenum going down.
Nobody will confuse UTEP’s defense for Alabama’s…sorry coach Price….but Memphis doesn’t hit like a heavyweight. The Tigers rank 96th in total offense averaging a scant 312 yards per contest. But they beat Middle Tennessee State last week, they must be pretty good, right? Well – when your longest TD drive is only 44 yards – somebody’s making it easy for you.
With a new coaching staff, including the offensive coordinator who is Mike Price’s son, early season inefficiency is to be expected, especially when your roster is devoid of talent. When asked about coaching against his son, Price said, “They’re running an offense that’s’ familiar to us.” Good luck son. To add a cherry to this sundae, UTEP has never beaten Memphis, going 0-3 in the program’s history. They’ll be motivated and their first win will be comfortable win. UTEP, 41-17.
N.C. STATE at GEORGIA TECH* (TOTAL OVER 57.5)
The Pack is standing in front of both defensive stalwarts Nebraska and Iowa in the scoring defense line – surrendering just 15.7 points per game. The Jackets are just five points worse at 20.7 per contest. Plus – those numbers are not completely the result of taking on patsies. NC State has played UCF (Central Florida for the acronym-challenged) and Cincy, while Tech has faced Kansas and North Carolina – both on the road.
So why play the over card? Cause Vegas is holding a 5 of clubs. N.C. State defensive coordinator Mike Archer noted this week how he can now run a dynamic and aggressive 3-4 defense with this year’s personnel. Sure – Central Florida brings very little speed to the table with their power running game and Cincy’s offense has looked about as together as Bill and Hillary Clinton.
The defining defensive stats through three games - +5 turnover margin and a 24% third down conversion ratio are flat misleading. Georgia Tech’s triple option is a different animal and one that N.C. State has never seen – at least not under Tech coach Paul Johnson’s watch. Archer mentioned this week how Tech’s offense “doesn’t do much.” If you count gobbling up yards and scoring TDs as “not much” – we suppose he has a point.
As for Tech’s defense, mobile QB Russell Wilson will give them fits. The Jackets are weak at the linebacker spot – not good when you are in your first year of a switch to a 3-4 scheme facing a QB with wheels. Wilson can extend drives with his feet, and when he wants to throw, he has several big WR’s on the outside who can make plays. After Tech goes up early, that’s what he’ll be forced to do. GEORGIA TECH, 44-27.
COLORADO STATE* (+7.5) over IDAHO
Sure, CSU is 0-3 – but the arrow is ticking upwards. The schedule has been absolutely unkind for a team starting a true freshman QB – neutral site opener followed by two roadies. In week four they finally get a true home game.
Before going there, let’s talk about last week. A 31-10 loss to Miami-OH sounds about as appetizing as raw chicken, but CSU had 15 first downs to Miami’s 17 and outgained the Redhawks by 7 yards. A pick 6 and getting stopped on downs at the opponent’s 2-yard line were the seminal moments of that game.
As for this week, the Ram D will give an Idaho offense that sports a re-built offensive line all they can handle. Vandal QB Enderle is a vet, but he hasn’t had time to throw and his 4/7 TD/INT ratio reflects that. Oh yeah – he’s also been sacked 13 times in 3 games.
Colorado State’s offense is run by a newbie, but that newbie is averaging 232 pass yards per game….all away from home and without a rushing attack. Look for the ground game to pick up this week against an Idaho defense that surrendered 4.5 yards per carry to North Dakota and 8.8 yards per carry to Nebraska. Plus, Ram coach Fairchild pushed his o-line hard this week stressing that their “scheme is based on us running the football.”
Colorado State is going with retro uniforms on Saturday and will be dressed in orange…..headline in the Sunday morning paper…..”Orange Crush!”…..as they win their first ballgame since September 19, 2009. COLORADO STATE, 21-20.
$UNDAY'$ GAME$
ATLANTA (+4) over NEW ORLEANS*
Once again, the Monday Night game provides a launching pad. The Saints routinely won their games by double-digits for much of last season, so -4 should be a piece of cake for them to clear against a familiar foe, back in the SuperDome, right? Well, maybe it will be. But stick around for the ‘maybe not’ reasons.
Atlanta qualifies as one of those “physical” offenses that New Orleans’ defense would probably not pick as their most favorite type to play against. The Falcons gained 153 rushing yards per game two seasons ago, but only 117 per game last season when their carries per game got cut from 35 to 28. Although it’s early right now, the Falcons are back up to 140 rushing yards per game, while New Orleans’ two games have seen them drop from last season’s relatively stunning (for the Saints) 132 rushing yards per game, to less than half of that output (65 rushing yards per game vs. the Vikings and 49ers).
Atlanta used their “B” back Jason Snelling last Sunday against the Cardinals. Some reports say that Snelling was featured because Michael Turner was hurting. Maybe Turner was hurting, maybe he wasn’t. But it was only mid-September. How hurt could the guy be? Perhaps the deal was that head coach Mike Smith knows what he has, realized what was coming up, and could afford to make Snelling the feature back vs. the descending Cardinals, while saving Turner’s best for an important early-season game against their NFC South division’s reigning champ. After all, to beat the champ, you have to knock him out.
Speaking of important running backs, while Atlanta’s Turner was being held in reserve for much of last Sunday afternoon, the Saints’ Reggie Bush was breaking his leg on Monday Night. Okay, so Bush doesn’t get many touches within New Orleans’ offense – only 117 (70 rushes, 47 pass receptions) last season. But when a guy can take it to the house on any given touch (that’s what he tries to do every time, doesn’t he?), and averages 5.2 yards per carry and 7.1 yards per reception, the opposing defense has to account for his presence – a presence that will be absent in this game, for which New Orleans got a late start preparing for in the first place.
Bush’s presence normally helps RB Pierre Thomas be more effective. Thomas never got more than 19 carries in a game last season. Eleven to 13 was his range. Thomas received 19 and 18 carries in Weeks 1 and 2 so far, and the Saints – who dominated point-spreads for the most part at this time a year ago – have gotten a push, and a loss ATS by 2.5 points. Nothing ridiculously poor, but a big contrast from their reputation.
By the time Atlanta and New Orleans played their first meeting last season, the Saints were already cruising and Atlanta was already badly bitten by the injury bug, especially in the defensive secondary and defensive line. Better strength up front at the moment, and a healthier secondary, can help the Falcons minimize the number of big plays against them.
Without Bush returning punts, we might be seeing more Saints drives beginning deep in their own territory, instead of at their own 40-yard-line after a return of 20-25 yards, or longer. Already, the bulk of New Orleans’ offensive drives have begun pretty deep in their own territory. They got 10 points from two drives that began in San Francisco territory following turnovers, but only 13 otherwise. The 49ers are much more boneheaded than Atlanta.
New Orleans was 0-2 ATS after playing on Monday Night last season, 0-1 ATS going Sunday to Saturday, so it’s not like they’ve dominated in this situation recently. ATLANTA, 30-22.
HOUSTON* (-3) over DALLAS
The Texans’ starting left tackle Brown has been hit with a suspension. That gives everyone who was thinking, “Dallas can’t possibly start 0-3,” something to actually hang their hat on. But the hatrack might be missing its screws. The media’s sensationalized reporting of, “Rashad Butler making his first start in five years,” at left tackle, with strong pass-rusher DeMarcus Ware at end for the Cowboys, adds fuel to the car chasing the ambulance. Butler played college ball at Miami-FL. It’s not as if they’re sticking a high school player in there.
Houston is 15-6 SU against opponents outside their division, they represent a stranger that has had success against strangers, and Dallas’ coaching staff is scratching their heads at the moment. In the Zone Blitz, published in August, we discussed how Dallas allowing the fewest points in the NFC last season might have been a mirage, that their Defensive Quarterback Rating of 83.2 was merely average, and that they shared an obscure but telling defensive statistic with the 2008 Tennessee Titans, who began 2009 with an 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS record.
The Cowboys’ defense doesn’t get turnovers. They have yet to get one this season. They got the third fewest in the NFL last season. Defenses that aren’t dynamic like that will eventually get scored upon by opposing offenses that have a good idea what they are doing. Houston appears to be one of those. They passed for more yardage than anyone else in the AFC last season.
So far in 2010, Cowboys’ wideout Miles Austin leads the league in receiving yards (288) by a wide margin, has already recorded two 100+ yard games, and is tied for first in the NFL with 20 receptions. And, they’re 0-2. Austin might be a guy whose touches and yards are inversely proportional to the number of his team’s wins and covers. If your quarterback can’t lead the team into the end zone more than the other team’s quarterback, then a receiver’s statistics don’t mean much.
Opponents want Tony Romo throwing 45-50 times a game. The more, the merrier for the other side. Dallas has lost its power-rushing ways. The Cowboys averaged only 27 rushes per game last season, and so far in 2010 have averaged only 24 carries per game. The starting fullback is out, leaving a rookie, the only fullback on the roster, in his spot. HOUSTON, 27-12.
NEWSLETTER RESULTS!
For those of you who were brave enough to sign up to get the free weekly SR newsletter and actually played and followed the rules, your results should have been the same as or close to the Crier's results depending on your lines compared to the Crier's.
In Week #3, the Crier went 14-9 ATS for a profit of +11.9 units. For the the first three weeks of the season, the record is 37-22 ATS for a profit of 29.2 units.
Week #3 (using Crier’s lines):
Date W/L Team Line Opponent Amt. Of Play Final Score
Sept. 18 W Ball State Under 49.5 Purdue* BB 13+24=37
Sept. 18 W Temple* +6 Connecticut RP 30-16
Sept. 18 W Vanderbilt Under 44 Mississippi* RP 28+14=42
Sept. 18 W Virginia Tech* -19 East Carolina BB 49-27
Sept. 18 L Colorado State +8 Miami OH* RP 10-31
Sept. 18 T Florida -14 Tennessee* RP 31-17
Sept. 18 L Wisconsin* -13 Arizona State RP 20-19
Sept. 18 W Nebraska -3 Washington* BB 56-21
Sept. 18 W Air Force +16.5 Oklahoma* RP 24-27
Sept. 18 L Eastern Michigan* +10 Central Michigan RP 14-52
Sept. 18 W Navy -3 Louisiana Tech* BB 37-23
Sept. 18 W Navy Over 50 Louisiana Tech* BB 37+23=60
Sept. 18 W Texas -3 Texas Tech* SBB 24-14
Sept. 18 L Mississippi State +8 LSU* RP 7-29
Sept. 18 L Troy -3.5 UAB* BB 33-34
Sept. 19 W Kansas City +3 Cleveland* BB 16-14
Sept. 19 W Green Bay* -13 Buffalo RP 34-7
Sept. 19 L Philadelphia -6 Detroit* RP 35-32
Sept. 19 W Atlanta* -6.5 Arizona BB 41-7
Sept. 19 W St. Louis +3.5 Oakland* RP 14-16
Sept, 19 L Denver Under 39.5 Seattle* RP 14+31=45
Sept. 19 L New England -3 NY Jets* BB 14-28
Sept. 19 L NY Giants +5 Indianapolis* RP 14-38
Sept. 19 W NY Giants Over 48 Indianapolis* BB 14+38=52
* - Home team
N - Neutral site
SBB - Super Best Bet (3 units)
BB - Best Bet (2 units)
RP - Regular Play (1 unit)
Week #3
Type of Wager: W-L (excludes “pushes”); Profit/Loss (Cumulative in parentheses)
NFL Results ATS
Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (0-0 = 0%; 0 units)
Best Bets: 3-1 = 75%; +3.8 units (5-2 = 71.4%; +5.6 units)
Regular Plays: 2-3 = 40%; -1.3 units (6-5 = 54.5%; +.5 units)
Week #3 Totals: 5-4 = 55.6%; +2.5 units (11-7 = 61.1%; +6.1 units)
College Football Results ATS
Super Best Bets: 1-0 = 100%; +3 units (4-0 = 100%; +12 units)
Best Bets: 5-1 = 83.3%; +7.8 units (10-4 = 71.4%; +11.2 units)
Regular Plays: 3-4 = 42.9%; -1.4 units (12-11= 52.2%: -.1 units)
Week #3 Totals: 9-5 = 64.3%; +9.4 units (26-15 = 63.4%; +23.1 units)
Total Combined NFL and College Football Results ATS
Super Best Bets: 1-0 = 100%; +3 units (4-0 = 100%; +12 units)
Best Bets: 8-2 = 80%; + 11.6 units (15-6 = 71.4%; +16.8 units)
Regular Plays: 5-7 = 41.7%; -2.7 units (18-16 = 52.9%; +.4 units)
Week #3 Totals: 14-9 = 60.9%; +11.9 units (37-22 = 62.7%; +29.2 units)
SR CREW
HMW
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