CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS
Over the next week, the SR Crew will give you an analysis of some of the top conference basketball tournaments that will be going on around the country.
For the Crier's loyal followers, e-mails will be sent out with selections on the morning of the various tournament games along with explanations. By perusing the ratings below, using our standard rules by comparing them to the actual point spread, you can probably anticipate the Crier's selections, but there may be a surprise or two depending on late information.
The Missouri Valley Conference, Colonial Conference, West Coast Conference, and Sun Belt Conference are covered here.
MISSOURI VALLEY CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(March 3-6 – Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO)
The top six seeds have earned their first-round byes. The quarterfinals beginning March 4 are: 4/5, Northern Iowa vs. Creighton; 3/6, Indiana State vs. Evansville. #1 seed Missouri State will play the Southern Illinois/Illinois State winner; #2 seed Wichita State will play the Drake/Bradley winner.
Conference tournament ratings are below. For example, “Evansville vs. Indiana State on a neutral floor would be “Evansville by 1”. Granting an additional two-point edge to any team playing on its home floor would be one additional preliminary adjustment.
WICHITA STATE, Even
MISSOURI STATE, Minus-2
NORTHERN IOWA, Minus-6
CREIGHTON, Minus-6
EVANSVILLE, Minus-9
DRAKE, Minus-9
INDIANA STATE, Minus-10
BRADLEY, Minus-13
ILLINOIS STATE, Minus-13
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, Minus-16
The Shockers deserve a Big Dance bid, whether they cop this, or not, but MVC’s logically a one-bid league on its raw merits. Superior travelers, Wichita should be comfortable in St. Louis.
Missouri State appears recalibrated off their late-conference-season speed bump, though with their bye, their road to Sunday’s final game appears well-tended.
Indiana State’s injury-wracked, and UNI has failed to rise to the occasion, too often – with the BracketBusters loss to VCU especially glaring.
With their size, Creighton’s the longshot stab.
Look out for Drake – next year – but Wichita State may be too far ahead of them, on the development cycle.
Projected Final: WICHITA STATE vs. MISSOURI STATE
COLONIAL ATHLETIC CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(March 4 – 7, Richmond Coliseum, Richmond, VA)
The top four seeds have earned their first-round byes. The quarterfinals beginning March 5 are: #8 UNC Wilmington or #9 Georgia State facing #1 George Mason; #5 Drexel or #12 Towson facing #4 VCU; #7 Delaware or #10 Northeastern facing #2 Old Dominion; and #6 James Madison or #11 William & Mary facing #3 Hofstra.
Conference tournament ratings are below. For example, Old Dominion vs. Delaware on a neutral floor would be “Old Dominion by 10”. Granting an additional two-point edge to any team playing on its home floor would be one additional preliminary adjustment.
GEORGE MASON, Even
OLD DOMINION, Minus-4
VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, Minus-7
HOFSTRA, Minus-8
JAMES MADISON, Minus-9
DREXEL, Minus-9
DELAWARE, Minus-14
NORTHEASTERN, Minus-15
WILLIAM & MARY, Minus-17
GEORGIA STATE, Minus-17
NC WILMINGTON, Minus-18
TOWSON, Minus-22
Sometimes, early-season smoke signals and team projections are dead-on. Such was the case with this year’s George Mason edition, with all five starters back. That continuity and the leadership from the upperclassmen has paid in spades, as the Patriots have run roughshod through their Colonial Conference schedule. Jim Larranaga’s been here before, and these guys should make the Dance even should they falter here.
Old Dominion has notched more wins against the Top 50 (five!) than anyone else here, and they’ll be a tough out.
VCU’s mystified and disappointed much of the way, since the potential’s clearly there, but their BracketBuster upset at Northern Iowa doesn’t look so good, as the MVC is so clearly down.
Hofstra has the marvelous Charles Jenkins, but better teams can cope with the complete package.
James Madison’s guard play hinders them against better competition.
Drexel’s defense is fine, but more firepower would be needed to go deep here.
Forget the rest.
Projected Final: GEORGE MASON vs. OLD DOMINION
WEST COAST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(March 4 – 7, Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV)
The top two seeds get byes through the first two rounds. The third and fourth seeds get byes in the first round. On Saturday, the #3 seed San Francisco will take on the winner of the #6 Pepperdine/#7 San Diego matchup, and #4 Santa Clara will face the winner of the #5 Portland/#8 Loyola-Marymount game. Sunday, St. Mary’s CA gets the winner of the game involving Santa Clara, and Gonzaga will play the winner of the San Francisco game.
Conference tournament ratings are below. For example, Portland vs. Santa Clara on a neutral floor would be “Portland by 3”.
GONZAGA, Even
ST. MARY'S CA, Minus-2
PORTLAND, Minus-6
SAN FRANCISCO, Minus-9
SANTA CLARA, Minus-9
PEPPERDINE, Minus-11
LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT, Minus-15
SAN DIEGO, Minus-16
Saint Mary's CA clinched at least a piece of the their first WCC title in 22 years by beating Portland, and will enjoy the top seed, having beaten Gonzaga earlier, but may still need to win this tourney to rest easy regarding their Big Dance prospects.
Gonzaga, the hardy perennials, enjoy the other bye to the conference semis, and are oh-so-dangerous, as they may need to run this table to keep on playing.
The Portland Pilots are dangerous, should either of the top two cramp up.
Frisco outperformed their physical talent for Rex Walters, and may find this too much to handle, especially if Pepperdine advances to meet them.
Santa Clara, Loyola-Marymount, and San Diego are race-fillers.
Projected Final: GONZAGA vs. ST. MARY’S CA
SUN BELT CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(March 5 – 8 , Summit Arena, Hot Springs, AR)
The top two seeds in each division get first-round byes. Tuesday night’s playoff (3/1) game matching won by North Texas over Arkansas-Little Rock finalized the fourth- and fifth-place standings within the Sun Belt East. In Sunday’s quarterfinals, East #1 Florida Atlantic will play the West #5 Troy/North Texas winner; West #2 Louisiana-Lafayette will encounter the East #3 Western Kentucky/West #6 Louisiana-Monroe winner; West #1 Arkansas State will meet the East #4 South Alabama/Arkansas-LR winner; and East #2 Middle Tennessee State will tangle with East #6 Florida International/West #3 Denver winner.
Conference tournament rankings are below. For example, Florida Atlantic vs. Troy on a neutral floor would be “Florida Atlantic by 14.” Granting an additional two-point edge to any team playing on its home floor would be one other preliminary adjustment.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC, Even
ARKANSAS STATE, Minus-3
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE, Minus-4
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE, Minus-4
WESTERN KENTUCKY, Minus-5
NORTH TEXAS, Minus-6
DENVER, Minus-7
ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK, Minus-9
TROY, Minus-14
SOUTH ALABAMA, Minus-14
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL, Minus-15
LOUISIANA-MONROE, Minus-18
Florida Atlantic’s perhaps best suited for this assignment athletically, but Mike Jarvis is a better recruiter than he is a game coach.
Both Arkansas State (granted two-point edge in handicaps for site, as is Arkansas-LR) and Louisiana-Lafayette finished conference schedules in sizzling form, but that doesn’t always translate into a multi-day neutral-site situation.
Middle Tennessee State travels better than do many of these.
It’s tough to trust highly-touted North Texas off recent form, and it’ll be interesting to observe how Denver performs in a sustained neutral-site setting.
Arkansas-LR should appreciate location . . . and while this is a bizarre conference, the others appear not talented enough to make a deep run.
Projected final: MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE vs. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE.
THE CRIER/SR CREW
HMW
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