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CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS
The SR Crew continues to give you an analysis of some of the top conference basketball tournaments that will be going on around the country this week. This is something that most of the local sports talkers won't be talking about.
For the Crier's loyal followers, e-mails will be sent out with selections on the morning of the various tournament games along with explanations. By perusing the ratings below, using our standard rules by comparing them to the actual point spread, you can probably anticipate the Crier's selections, but there may be a surprise or two depending on late information.
The Atlantic Coast Conference, Southeastern Conference, Big Ten Conference, and the Big West Conference are covered here. These tourneys all start on Thursday, March 10.
THURSDAY, MARCH 10
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(March 10 – 13, Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC)
The top four seeds have earned first-round byes. The quarterfinals beginning Friday, March 11 are: Top seed North Carolina versus Virginia/Miami-Fla winner; #4 Clemson against Boston College/ Wake Forest winner; #2 Duke engages Maryland/North Carolina State winner; and #3 Florida State will bump heads with the Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech winner.
Please see the early conference tournament ratings below. For example, Duke over Maryland on a neutral floor would be “Duke by 8”.
DUKE, Even
NORTH CAROLINA, Minus-1
VIRGINIA TECH, Minus-5
CLEMSON, Minus-5
FLORIDA STATE, Minus-5
MIAMI-FLORIDA, Minus-6
MARYLAND, Minus-8
BOSTON COLLEGE, Minus-8
VIRGINIA, Minus-11
NC STATE, Minus-12
GEORGIA TECH, Minus-13
WAKE FOREST, Minus-20
Carolina got their pound of flesh Saturday night, but Duke retains the pride of the place and are the champs, until they’re not. It’s not as if they’ve fallen off the face of the earth, but stubborn reliance on the outside game is no longer going to be enough.
With the emergence of Kendall Marshall and Harrison Barnes, Roy Williams can just sit back, press buttons, and enjoy the Tarheel show – though Coach K remains a better game coach.
Wildly-emotional Virginia Tech remains on the roller-coaster, and needs their temperature checked on a day-to-day basis.
Clemson’s coming along, but can’t be thrilled about playing in North Carolina. They can still play defense, but without Chris Singleton, you know how weak the ACC is across-the-board this year when Florida State’s a #3 seed.
Maryland remains a disappointment, given their lack of defensive dedication.
You sense Boston College faces more tasks, which need to be accomplished.
Let’s see if Miami-Florida can duplicate last year’s run; sharp outside shooting will be a requirement.
The rest are too shorthanded and/or immature.
Projected Final: Duke vs. North Carolina
FIRST-ROUND GAMES
MIAMI-FLORIDA over VIRGINIA by 5
BOSTON COLLEGE over WAKE FOREST by 12
MARYLAND over NC STATE by 4
VIRGINIA TECH over GEORGIA TECH by 8
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(March 10-13, Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA)
The top two teams in the East and West divisions have earned first-round byes. The quarterfinals beginning Friday, March 11 are: Top West seed Alabama will meet the Georgia/Auburn winner; #2 East seed Kentucky will hook the Mississippi/South Carolina victor; top East seed Florida will play the Tennessee/Arkansas winner; and #2 West seed Mississippi State will proceed against the Vanderbilt/LSU winner.
Please see the early conference tournament ratings below. For example, Florida over Tennessee on a neutral floor would be “Florida by 7”.
FLORIDA, Even
KENTUCKY, Minus-1
VANDERBILT, Minus-4
TENNESSEE, Minus-7
GEORGIA, Minus-7
ALABAMA, Minus-10
MISSISSIPPI STATE, Minus-10
MISSISSIPPI, Minus-10
ARKANSAS, Minus-11
SOUTH CAROLINA, Minus-13
LSU, Minus-17
AUBURN, Minus-22
The Gators have done a spectacular job, repeatedly rising to multiple occasions. They’re a cinch for the "Dance", of course, and don’t need this to validate themselves.
Neither does Kentucky, but they might look to represent to some degree, given their horrendous conference road record, saved by their final conference win in Vol-Land.
Vandy’s better than they look on the court, and enjoy a decent draw here.
Tennessee is 18-13, and is capable of beating most-anyone on a given day, but would do well to perform, as the NCAA may not look kindly upon this program this year.
Though this isn’t their home floor, Georgia should find the crowd friendly, and their draw could be conducive to a positive surprise.
SEC West “champ” Alabama is sixth in our ratings, reflecting the prevailing gross divisional imbalance, as well as the Tide’s consistently-lousy shot selection.
Mississippi State always has a punchers’ chance, with Dee Bost and Renardo Sidney.
Arkansas continues to disappoint a fan base which still can’t forget Nolan Richardson.
The rest don’t boast the talent to dominate a focused opponent.
Projected Final: Florida vs. Georgia
FIRST-ROUND GAMES
GEORGIA over AUBURN by 17
MISSISSIPPI over SOUTH CAROLINA by 3
TENNESSEE over ARKANSAS by 4
VANDERBILT over LSU by 13
BIG TEN CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(March 10 – 13, Conseco Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN)
The top five teams get a first-round bye. Beginning March 11, the quarterfinals are: Top seed Ohio State against the Northwestern/Minnesota winner: #4 Michigan vs. #5 Illinois; #2 Purdue, against the winner of Michigan State/Iowa; and #3 Wisconsin against the Penn State/Indiana winner.
Please see the early conference tournament ratings below. For example, Purdue over Michigan State on a neutral floor would be “Purdue by 8”. Granting an additional two-point edge to any team playing on a home floor would be one additional preliminary adjustment.
OHIO STATE, Even
PURDUE, Minus-4
WISCONSIN, Minus-5
ILLINOIS, Minus-9
MICHIGAN, Minus-9
MICHIGAN STATE, Minus-12
PENN STATE, Minus-12
NORTHWESTERN, Minus-14
MINNESOTA, Minus-18
IOWA, Minus-19
INDIANA, Minus-21
You all saw a focused Ohio State outfit Sunday evening, with all hands on deck, and it was a sight to behold. They owed Wisconsin plenty, and laid it on thick. They’re going to have to keep it up against comparable foes in the "Dance", in buildings which won’t be as friendly to Jon Diebler’s shooting eye.
Purdue could afford to lose to Iowa, and could lose here, too, and no one would hold it against them.
Wisconsin is an efficient jewel, until they meet up against a more-athletic bunch of comparable character. That wouldn’t be Illinois, who’ve failed in many a big spot, and some smaller ones, as well.
Michigan’s come a long way, but they’re in the Buckeyes’ bracket, which makes unbridled optimism difficult.
Michigan State is going to have to do more than they’ve done all year, and we should expect that.
Penn State torments the vulnerable, and if Wisconsin doesn’t feel they need to try to win three games in three days, perhaps Nits could make the semis.
The remaining quartet are up against it.
Projected Final: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
FIRST-ROUND GAMES
NORTHWESTERN over MINNESOTA by 6
The ‘Cats have always been able to play with these guys when talent’s been comparable, and certainly, the Gophers have slipped to this level, without Al Nolen, with Tubby Smith perhaps calling a cab, NU can repeat its recent Evanston triumph over this foe and recreate the experience of coping with the Buckeyes. NORTHWESTERN, 66-62
MICHIGAN STATE over IOWA by 7
PENN STATE over INDIANA by 9
BIG WEST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(March 10-12, Honda Center, Anaheim, CA)
No byes here! Thursday’s matchups will be determined by the seeding of the survivors, as the highest and lowest remaining seeds will meet in the opener of Friday’s doubleheader, and the matchup between the remaining two survivors will follow, Friday night.
Please see early conference tournament ratings below. For example, Long Beach State over CS Northridge on a neutral floor would be “Long Beach State by 8”.
LONG BEACH STATE, Even
PACIFIC, Minus-3
CAL POLY-SLO, Minus-4
UC SANTA BARBARA, Minus-5
UC IRVINE, Minus-7
CS NORTHRIDGE, Minus-8
CS FULLERTON, Minus-9
UC RIVERSIDE, Minus-10
Dan Monson’s 49ers have beaten a wicked tattoo on Big West Conference opponents this season, with a 14-2 league mark, with their only Big West losses coming on the road to Irvine and Fullerton. They also suffered a non-conference loss to St. Mary’s CA in this building. It seems silly on the surface to consider that Long Beach may have issues competing at top efficiency within the boundaries of Orange County, but there it is.
When your best non-con win is Arizona State, there are class issues, but Pacific is a good two-way team with diversified scoring, when they’re shooting eyes are “on.”
The market has caught up with one of our favorites, Cal Poly (6-2 ATS for us), but they’re a threat here.
It’s hangover season for Barbara, who’s failed to find consistent inspiration after last season’s big run.
As noted, the Anteaters already own a resounding win over Long Beach.
PROJECTED FINAL: Pacific over Cal-Poly SLO
FIRST-ROUND GAMES
LONG BEACH STATE over UC IRVINE by 7
PACIFIC over UC SANTA BARBARA by 2
Expect the Tigers to find a way, though establishing a margin may be more of a product of endgame good fortune. PACIFIC, 66-64
CAL POLY – SLO over UC RIVERSIDE by 6
CS NORTHRIDGE over CS FULLERTON by 1
Would be happy to take +3, with either side. CS NORTHRIDGE, 63-60
CRIER’S CORNER
BASKETBALL ACTION
Yesterday’s Record ATS: 8-3
W - MILWAUKEE (-1) over WASHINGTON*
W - PRINCETON (-2.5) over PENNSYLVANIA*
BIG EAST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT (at Madison Square Garden, New York, NY)
W - CONNECTICUT (-14.5) over DEPAUL
W - RUTGERS (+3.5) over SETON HALL
L - PROVIDENCE (+7.5) over MARQUETTE
ATLANTIC-10 CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT (at campus sites)
L - GEORGE WASHINGTON* (-7.5) over ST. JOSEPH’S
W - DAYTON (-2) over MASSACHUSETTS*
MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT (at campus sites)
L - CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+13) over BUFFALO*
W - TOLEDO (+19.5) over OHIO*
SUN BELT CONFERENCE – CHAMPIONSHIP GAME (at Summit Arena, Hot Springs, Arkansas)
W - ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (+3.5) over NORTH TEXAS
HORIZON CONFERENCE – CHAMPIONSHIP GAME (at U. S. Cellular Arena, Milwaukee, WI)
W - BUTLER at WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE* (TOTAL UNDER 134)
Cumulative Season Record ATS (excludes “pushes”): 465-294
Today’s NBA Action (for reading purposes only):
UTAH (Pick’em) over TORONTO*
It’s been nothing but bleak in Canada all year as the hangover from Chris Bosh leaving just has not gone away. One bright spot for the Raptors is the play of Jose Calderon, who is in the Top 5 in the league in assists. Even with a revamped offense, the Jazz should have enough to cash in here. UTAH, 109 – 96
SACRAMENTO* (+9) over ORLANDO
Sometimes you just have to rattle the cage and that is exactly what Dwight Howard did when he called out his teammates in a recent rant after a horrible loss to this same Kings team in the first game after the break. That defeat will be fresh in the minds of the Magic who are getting super play out of point Jameer Nelson. ORLANDO, 100 – 97
THE CRIER/SR CREW
HMW
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