CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS
The SR Crew continues to give you an analysis of some of the top conference basketball tournaments that will be going on around the country this week. This is something that most of the local sports talkers won't be talking about.
For the Crier's loyal followers, e-mails will be sent out with selections on the morning of the various tournament games along with explanations. By perusing the ratings below, using our standard rules by comparing them to the actual point spread, you can probably anticipate the Crier's selections, but there may be a surprise or two depending on late information.
The Big XII Conference, Conference USA, WAC, Montain West Conference, and the PAC 10 are covered here. These tourneys all start on Wednesday, March 9.
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 9
BIG XII CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(March 9-12, Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO)
The top four seeds receive a first-round bye. In Thursday, March 10’s quarterfinals, top seed Kansas will play the Nebraska/Oklahoma State winner; #2 seed Texas will hook up with the Baylor/Oklahoma winner; #3 seed Texas A&M will clash with the Missouri/Texas Tech winner; and #4 seed Kansas State will deal with the Colorado/Iowa State survivor.
Please see early conference tourney rankings below. For example, Kansas State over Colorado on a neutral floor would be “Kansas State by 6”.
KANSAS, Even
TEXAS, minus-4
KANSAS STATE, minus-8
MISSOURI, minus-9
TEXAS A&M, minus-9
NEBRASKA, minus-12
BAYLOR, minus-14
COLORADO, minus-14
OKLAHOMA STATE, minus-16
IOWA STATE, minus-17
TEXAS TECH, minus-18
OKLAHOMA, minus-21
The Jayhawks are talented, and beautifully-balanced.
The Longhorns loomed as a huge threat a month ago, but recent turbulence concerns.
The Wildcats have returned from the dead, in a great pacing job by Frank Martin – but how long may the new found intensity hold up?
Missouri has extreme difficulties with top teams, given their defensive flaws.
Texas A&M needs every bit of defensive intensity on deck.
The others are in very, very deep water.
Projected Final: Texas vs. Kansas State
FIRST-ROUND GAMES
NEBRASKA over OKLAHOMA STATE by 4
‘Husker bulk should frustrate the Cowboys inside. NEBRASKA, 62-58
COLORADO over IOWA STATE by 3
Even the Buffs (proud possessors of the phoniest schedule on Planet Earth) should be able to deflect the sink-3s-or-die Cyclones. COLORADO, 67-64
BAYLOR over OKLAHOMA by 7
The Bears need an enormous run here to avoid the NIT, and we doubt they have it in them. BAYLOR, 71-64
MISSOURI over TEXAS TECH by 9
Two sides which live, laugh about, and love the transition game – though they’re meeting in this spot after originating from opposite poles. Tech’s gained focus, and Mizzou is always “interesting” away from Columbia. MISSOURI, 79-70
CONFERENCE USA TOURNAMENT
(March 9 – 12, Don Haskins Center, El Paso, TX)
The top four seeds enjoy a first-round bye. In Thursday’s quarter-finals, top seed UAB will encounter the East Carolina/Central Florida winner; #2 seed Tulsa will face the SMU/Rice winner; #3 seed UTEP (on their home floor) will engage the Marshall/Houston winner, and #4 seed Memphis will tangle with the Southern Miss/Tulane winner.
Please see early conference tourney rankings below. For example, Tulsa over SMU on a neutral floor would be “Tulsa by 5”. We’ll be granting an additional two-point edge to Texas-El Paso, given the site.
UAB, Even
SOUTHERN MISS, minus-1
UTEP, minus -2
MARSHALL, minus-4
MEMPHIS, minus-4
TULSA, minus-6
CENTRAL FLORIDA, minus-6
EAST CAROLINA, minus-8
SMU, minus-11
RICE, minus-12
TULANE, minus-13
HOUSTON, minus-15
Though they boast zero non-conference wins outside the Top 50, it’s impossible to not respect UAB, as winning in conference is a Blazer habit. Last Wednesday’s win at Southern Miss was big. Let’s see if they can do it again, as Larry Eustachy’s kids have a way of outperforming their talent in March.
UTEP’s certainly a threat on this floor, though they’re markedly inconsistent, as is Marshall’s Damier Pitts and his Thundering Herd.
Memphis has the pedigree, but this year’s edition is young and wildly-erratic.
Not fond of Tulsa’s backcourt, or their maturity level.
UCF swooned after their lengthy early winning streak, and appear to have mislaid their killer instinct.
East Carolina’s come to life in the past couple of weeks, but late wake-ups often find it difficult to translate that form into a conference-tourney setting.
Projected Final: UTEP vs. Southern Miss
FIRST-ROUND GAMES
CENTRAL FLORIDA over EAST CAROLINA by 1
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI over TULSA by 5
Wouldn’t panic over Southern Miss’ metz-a-metz conference -schedule finish. They’re primed for this. SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, 73-68
MARSHALL over HOUSTON by 11
Absolutely no doubt who the better side is, but if Marshall has any serious ambitions in this spot (and shame on ‘em if they don’t), they’d do well to pace themselves in this spot to save something for the next three days. MARSHALL, 69-58
SMU over RICE by 1
WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(March 9-12, Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV)
The top two seeds get byes through the first two rounds. The #3 and #4 seeds enjoy first-round byes. The quarterfinals begin March 10, with #4 seed Idaho meeting the Hawaii/San Jose State winner, and #3 seed New Mexico State engaging the Nevada/Fresno State winner. In the Friday semis, #1 Utah State entertains Idaho, Hawaii, or San Jose State, and #2 Boise State battles New Mexico State, Nevada or Fresno State.
Please see the early conference tournament ratings below. For example, Hawaii over Idaho on a neutral floor would be “Hawaii by 1”.
UTAH STATE, EVEN
BOISE STATE, Minus-8
NEW MEXICO STATE, Minus-9
HAWAII, Minus-11
IDAHO, Minus-12
NEVADA, Minus-12
FRESNO STATE, Minus-13
SAN JOSE STATE, Minus-15
Even should Utah State somehow lose this thing, they should gain a seat at the “Big Dance” table, based on their body of work. Precedent’s there, as they lost to New Mexico State in last year’s final and still got in – and you can make the case that this outfit is better than that one, especially defensively.
Despite injuries, Hawaii’s travelled better than they typically do.
You wish Idaho was blessed with more mature height.
Nevada can hang with most of these on their best, but have had trouble closing the deal.
Projected Final: Utah State vs. New Mexico State
FIRST-ROUND GAMES
HAWAII over SAN JOSE STATE by 4
NEVADA over FRESNO STATE by 3
MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(March 9-12, Thomas & Mack Arena, Las Vegas, NV)
In Thursday’s quarterfinals, the winner of Wednesdy’s Wyoming/TCU matchup will engage top seed Brigham Young.
Please see the early conference tournament ratings below. For example, San Diego State over Air Force on a neutral floor would be “San Diego State by 16”. Granting an additional two-point edge to any team playing on a home floor (UNLV) would be one additional preliminary adjustment.
BYU, Even
SAN DIEGO STATE, Even
UNLV, Minus-4
NEW MEXICO, Minus-8
COLORADO STATE, Minus-11
UTAH, Minus-17
AIR FORCE, Minus-20
WYOMING, Minus-21
TCU, Minus-22
It remains unsure as to just where we’re headed with BYU. Yes, the suspension of Brandon Davies will hurt the Coogs’ inside game and ballhandling efficiency, but Dave Rose acknowledges that their personnel matchup against New Mexico isn’t favorable for his side, so Jimmer fans shouldn’t panic beyond control over that result. Still, would be very interested in seeing San Diego State get another shot at the Mormons, with Davies sidelined.
So long as they keep playing this thing in Vegas, and UNLV maintains their program, they’ll be a tough out.
Too bad for Lobos their mastery of BYU doesn’t fully translate to other matchups.
Colorado State made a nice run this year, but the Rams appear NIT-bound.
The others are badly-outclassed.
Projected Final: BYU vs. San Diego State
FIRST-ROUND GAME
WYOMING over TCU by 1
Somebody’s going to the guillotine tomorrow against the Mormons, and in picking between these two reluctant warriors, we’ll lean to the Cowboys, ’cause TCU may be looking for the exits before this movie ends. Whether the administration’s right or not, Horned Frog HC Jim Christian has appeared overmatched as the conference season wound down. With Big East membership on the horizon, TCU brass will be reluctant to make the move while appearing wholly inert and outmanned in roundball. Ragtime Joe, by default. WYOMING, 68-67
QUARTER-FINAL MATCHUPS
(Three of four known prior to Tournament start.)
NEW MEXICO over COLORADO STATE by 3
Careful . . . Lobo form against BYU clearly doesn’t translate when up against the rest of the known world. NEW MEXICO, 67-64
SAN DIEGO STATE over UTAH by 17
The Aztecs have points to prove, but they may want to save something for a bigger game. SAN DIEGO STATE, 77-60
UNLV* over AIR FORCE by 18
There’s no place like home, and the Rebs have long thrived in this building in this event. Force has better shooters than usual, but this looms as a mismatch. UNLV, 74-56
PAC-10 CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(March 9-12, Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA)
The top six seeds earn first-round byes. In Thursday’s quarterfinals, Arizona will face the Stanford/Oregon State winner; #2 seed UCLA will face the Oregon/Arizona State winner; #3 seed Washington will engage #6 Washington State, and #4 USC will clash with California.
Please see early conference tournament ratings below. For example, UCLA over Arizona State on a neutral floor would be “UCLA by 10”. Granting an additional two-point edge to any team playing on a home floor (USC) would be one additional preliminary adjustment.
ARIZONA, EVEN
UCLA, Minus-3
WASHINGTON, Minus-5
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, Minus-6
CALIFORNIA, Minus-7
WASHINGTON STATE, Minus-8
STANFORD, Minus-11
ARIZONA STATE, Minus-13
OREGON, Minus-15
OREGON STATE, Minus-18
The Wildcats are pretty good, for a program which by all accounts was probably a year away – and they still managed to win the PAC-10 title, with no company at the top of the heap.
The sneaky team here – and going forward, of course – is the Bruins, who wore down St. John’s on the Left Coast, then took it from there.
Washington and Washington State deserve a third helping, and through the grace of the draw, we get another viewing of the long-running Pacific Northwest soap opera, spiced with Klay Thompson’s getting picked up for marijuana possession after last Thursday night’s galloping win over USC, who themselves have come along, as the season’s worn down. FYI - Thompson's suspension has been lifted by Coach Bone.
Stanford’s been up-and-down.
The Ducks staged a midseason revival, but then demonstrated they matched up terribly against Arizona State, who’ve been a pushover for virtually any other full-strength outfit.
The Beavers just endured a terrible multiple-suspension-affected loss to Arizona State; so we'll check their status.
PROJECTED FINAL: UCLA vs. USC
FIRST-ROUND GAMES
STANFORD over OREGON STATE by 7
ARIZONA STATE over OREGON by 2
CRIER’S CORNER
BASKETBALL ACTION
Yesterday’s Record ATS: 2-2
Cumulative Season Record ATS (excludes “pushes”): 457-291
Today’s NBA Action (for reading purposes only):
MILWAUKEE (-1) over WASHINGTON*
The Bucks have much more talent than was evident the first half of the season. The Bucks have two relatively easy games in the immediate future with Cleveland then Philly coming to Milwaukee. The Bucks play much better when they can keep Corey Maggette on the floor. The guy bounds and he gets to the line. MILWAUKEE, 106 - 96
THE CRIER/SR CREW
HMW
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