FINAL FOUR - THE CRIER/SR CREW

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THE FINAL FOUR

Written by: The Crier/SR Crew
Date posted: 3/31/2011

SATURDAY, APRIL 2 (at Reliant Stadium - Houston, TX)

BUTLER vs. VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH

VS.

After last season’s sensational run to the NCAA Championship game at Indianapolis, the proposition before the house, especially during Butler’s erratic performance levels during the Horizon League season, was “Who’s going to be this year’s Butler?” Turns out it was Butler, as they muscled their way past Old Dominion and Pitt before rendering Wisconsin’s Bo Ryan virtually speechless at halftime, then taking advantage of Billy Donovan’s strategic generosity to get here.

VCU took full advantage of a difficult Alamodome shooting background to harass the Kansas Jayhawks into 2-for-a-zillion from Triplesville as Kansas again managed to gag away their wildly-favorable bracket position (with Markieff Morris handing out eight turnovers!). All the early VCU press heralded multi-talented F Jamie Skeen, but Bradford Burgess has developed all-around, while improving his focus and waterbug 5-10 (or thereabouts) PG Joey Rodriguez playing well beyond his height, no matter how tall he may be. The fact that VCU was relegated to the First Four matchups and the sustained trashing the program absorbed from Big Six Conference-defending talking heads kept expectations low going into this extravaganza, but this trio is likely to remain a handful (as Southern Cal, Georgetown, Purdue and Florida State discovered, to their sorrow).

But Butler’s cut from the same mold, of course, boasting extreme defensive focus and well-practiced in executing their pet offensive sets. Shelvin Mack’s a legitimate NBA prospect with his size and skills, aided and abetted by fellow 6-9 senior F Matt Howard, lead the parade, while 6-11 C Andrew Smith lends a much-needed interior presence, and Ronald Nored remains the glue of the spirited defense as the Bulldogs seek a happier finish than last year’s.


The bad news for the Bulldogs: Butler doesn’t enjoy a cozy hometown setting this time around and after another parade of straight-up underdog upsets, Brad Stevens’ kids are actually favored in this Final Four matchup, however slightly. Based on their sustained experience at such heady heights and their subtle artfulness re their clever verbal massaging of the opposition (MUCH more subtle than Duke’s), we grant the Bulldogs the advantage. But note: we’re handicapping with a scalpel here, not a cleaver, and the mature defenses featured here promise to keep this tight. As was the case in last year’s football-stadium setting, the shooting background promises to be lousy for each side’s long-range marksmen. BUTLER, 65-61


CONNECTICUT vs. KENTUCKY

 

VS.

The Saturday headliner features a rematch of Connecticut’s completion of their Maui Classic sweep last fall, as they handed John Calipari’s second crop of one-and-dones their worst loss of the season. We urge that not too much be read into that result; Jim Calhoun has dominated the Maui in multiple journeys west, and at that time, Kentucky did not boast anything resembling the focus they enjoy now, especially defensively. Even during the SEC marathon when they lost one road game after another to upper-crust SEC East competition, the ‘Cats were never blown out.

PG Brandon Knight and F Terrence Jones have both matured by leaps and bounds while polishing and advancing their games; the old bromide about there being no true freshmen at this point of the season remains apt. The great irony of this Calipari campaign has been the emergence of widebody Josh Harrelson at center, whose near double-double average production during this tournament has been a welcome bonus, in addition to his obvious interior presence. Going into their most severe challenge (against Ohio State), the Wildcats knew that during the brief time Calipari has run the show in Lexington, when the ‘Cats have held the competition to less than 68 points, Kentucky wins and so it went.


Less was expected of UConn (slotted eleventh in the Big East in an early-season poll), but their Maui performance pulled the Huskies in the spotlight for the duration, excepting a mid-season lull when Calhoun’s troops were displaying difficulties with zone defenses, alleviated during their steam run dating from the commencement of the Big East tournament. We’re compelled to give the edge to Harrelson over Alex Oriahki.

It’s almost superfluous to mention the all-world junior (and likely NBA-bound, after this season) PG Kemba Walker, who has led the way with his fast hands and spectacular offensive creativity (termed the “most resourceful player in the country” by Bob Knight) over the likes of game, but character-shy San Diego State and an Arizona Wildcat team sharp enough to outlast Duke.


Walker’s going to get his points, and don’t overweight Kentucky’s win over Carolina, with their pressure-vulnerable guards and a head coach without the presence of mind to call at least one late time-out with an eye towards upsetting Kentucky’s momentum. But Kentucky’s defensive intensity is scary enough for us to lean their way, for the straight-up win. KENTUCKY, 69-68

CRIER’S CORNER


BASKETBALL ACTION


Yesterday’s Record ATS: 3-2


L - TORONTO* (+4.5) over MILWAUKEE
L - PORTLAND (-2) over NEW ORLEANS*
W - SACRAMENTO at DENVER* (TOTAL UNDER 221.5)


CBI
W - CREIGHTON at OREGON* (UNDER 146.5)


CIT
W - SANTA CLARA at IONA* (UNDER 153)


Cumulative Season Record ATS (excludes “pushes”): 581-353


Today’s Action (for reading purposes only):

NBA

LOS ANGELES LAKERS* (-6.5) over DALLAS 
The Lakers got down to business as soon as the All-Star break was over, and they just rolled in the second half. Ron Artest has stepped up on both sides, but the key has always been the play of Lamar Odom. If the other starters just have okay games, and Odom plays good, the Lakers are as close to unbeatable as you can get in this league. Homers figure to control the paint. LOS ANGELES, 106 – 94

NIT (at Madison Square Garden, NEW YORK CITY, NY)


WICHITA STATE (-1.5) over ALABAMA
Wichita State of the Missouri Valley Conference is squaring off against Alabama in the championship, with the Shockers installed as 1.5 point favorites. Disregarding the appearance of a mid-major taking on the SEC West champs, Vegas got it right this time. Wichita State has greater depth, scores more, rebounds better, and shoots a higher percentage from the field, the foul line, and on 3-pointers. In their four NIT victories, the Shockers have won by an average of 17 points. When Dayton won the NIT title last season, it was the first time since 2002 a team outside a BCS conference had won. Expect it again. This is the year of the mid-major. The Shockers should shock no one.  WICHITA STATE, 70-64


BASEBALL

N.Y. YANKEES* (Sabathia) -145 over DETROIT TIGERS (Verlander)
As the bags are loaded onto the trucks and shipped up north, the Yankees hope that their success stories from spring training don't fizzle out as March turns to April. Two of those stories are a 25-pounds-lighter C.C. Sabathia and a healthy and focused Alex Rodriguez. Given the Yankees questions marks in the rotation, Sabathia must be on his “A” game virtually every start. A notorious slow starter, Sabathia's new workout regime has him primed to shed the label. Fortunately, today in the opener against the Tigers, he will be pitching in the rocking and raucous Yankee Stadium, where he has lost only four times in his Pinstripe career. As for A-Rod, he comes into 2011 with a little bit to prove. 2010 was a down year (for him), but his monster spring has us excited about his prospects. A-Rod has enjoyed tremendous success against Justin Verlander (.847 OPS vs. the flame throwing righty), and there is no better time than opening day to send a message to the league that you are back. In addition to A-Rod, the Yankees' two strengths will be on display - their deep lineup and strong bullpen. For the first start of the year, it’s hard to expect Verlander to go deep, and the Yankees will do everything they can get him out as early as possible. Given a Friday off-day, expect to see bullpen duo Raphael Soriano and Mariano Rivera, meaning the Yankees just need to lead after seven innings. We like their chances in that scenario.

L.A. ANGELS (Weaver) -145 over K.C. ROYALS* (Hochevar)
The Angels’ quest to reclaim the AL West starts today in Kansas City as ace Jered Weaver takes on the Kansas City Royals and default opening day starter Luke Hochevar. Hochevar takes over as the Royals’ #1 now that Zach Greinke has been shipped to Milwaukee. He showed some signs of life last year, but improving to the point where you are just below average is not a good thing. The few Angels who have faced Hochevar in his short career have really teed off on him, with a cumulative batting average of .351. His counterpart Jered Weaver is everything the Royals hoped Hochevar could be; a hyped college star who becomes a major league strikeout machine. Weaver is coming off a season in which he led the league by striking out 233 batters in 224.1 innings with an amazing 1.07 WHIP. The Royals feature a roster composed of untested youth and free-swinging castoffs. This is a lineup that is apt to struggle vs. most pitchers, let alone a Cy Young runner up. Due to this game being played at Kaufman Stadium, we’ll be getting a better price than would be available at Angels Stadium.