Written by: The Crier/SR Crew
Date posted: 10/22/2010
LOCAL GAMES OF INTEREST
Last week, local games were 6-0 SU (39-11 cumulative) and 4-2 ATS (34-16 cumulative), although they were not meant to be wagered on. They were for reading purposes only.
For reading purposes only, below are the SR Crew write-ups on this week's games of local interest:
SATURDAY'S GAMES:
IOWA STATE at TEXAS*
Utah and Oklahoma have pasted 120 points on Iowa State the past two weeks, so don’t be surprised if they’re breathing a sigh of relief when watching tape of Texas’ bumbling offense this week. Sure, the Horns took out Nebraska last week, but QB Gilbert completed just 4-of-16 and looked as comfortable as Tiger Woods at a fidelity conference. That said, the Texas defense will stop the run, pressure the QB, and create enough turnovers to ensure a comfy win. TEXAS, 30-13.
KANSAS STATE at BAYLOR*
Relying so heavily on dynamic quarterback Griffin typically works for the Bears against mid- to bottom-tier conference foes. K-State falls into that category somewhere. The Wildcats have a lot of trouble slowing the run, but they should keep Griffin from going off with a pass defense that ranks in the top 20 nationally in efficiency. Home team defends the run well enough to keep the one-dimensional road team from dominating the ball. BAYLOR, 28-20.
TEXAS A&M at KANSAS*
They might be angry about the 52-point beat down they took from Kansas State last week, but this simply isn’t a good matchup for the Jayhawks. The KU pass D gets shredded more than an X-Games half-pipe and when he isn’t busy turning the ball over, Aggie QB Johnson can put up some big-time numbers. Kid was sacked 7 times by an aggressive Mizzou defensive front last week, but Kansas doesn’t bring very much noise. TEXAS A&M, 34-21.
HOUSTON at SMU*
Houston is reeling. It’s not so much that opponents are capitalizing on the difference in their offense without the big passing stats of Case Keenum, and with one of two true freshmen leading it instead. That’s part of it. The other part is the defense not getting as many turnovers as it did last season. Houston was overvalued to start the season and probably can’t regain any now. Struggling teams normally do not rediscover themselves on the road. SMU can shrug off the non-conference loss at Navy and get back to the business of trying to win C-USA West. SMU, 41-33.
OKLAHOMA at MISSOURI* (Please see 10/19 posting for Elimination Games)
NEBRASKA at OKLAHOMA STATE*
Texas stymied Nebraska’s high-powered offense last week because they are a defensive-oriented club and had an extra week to prep. To Okie St., defense is just what you have to do before you can get the ball back and play offense again. They also won’t have a bye week to scheme for what the Huskers offense brings to the table. The Cowboys are okay against the run, but they haven’t seen the type of mobility from the QB spot that they’ll see this week. Big Red QB Martinez and his offensive mates will find the goings much easier this week than last.
As for the Nebraska defense, you won’t find a better secondary and OSU loves to throw the rock. Huskers’ pass defense has 11 picks to just 4 TD’s on the year and their front four generates a great push, especially when they know the pass is coming. We were one week too early with our anti-Cowboy call. That decision last week won’t keep us from making the money call this week. NEBRASKA, 44-23.
RICE at CENTRAL FLORIDA*
Central Florida is cruising from bad team to bad team and playing fundamentally sound ball on both sides of the line. But Rice’s offense is capable of moving the ball and scoring enough to keep it interesting as long as they don’t turn it over. They were -4 in TO Ratio in last season’s 49-7 home loss to UCF, but have now played eight straight quarters without a boo-boo, now that the clown coach has let Fanuzzi play quarterback uninterrupted. CENTRAL FLORIDA, 34-17.
TEXAS TECH at COLORADO*
CU lost two starting safeties for the year a few weeks back and they’ll have issues contending with the Tech passing attack. Baylor QB Griffin completed 82% of his throws vs. the Buffs last week and whoever starts for Texas Tech is likely to have a big day. Starter Potts was dinged up last Saturday, but the backups have a lot of game reps and the team won’t go sideways if Potts is a no-go. TEXAS TECH, 28-23.
AIR FORCE at TCU*
Historically speaking, the flyboys battle TCU tough at home and get shelled on the road. To compete here, the Falcons must slow the Horned Frogs rushing attack and make QB Dalton beat them down the field. Last week the visitors surrendered 191 yards to SDSU tailback Hillman, so the prospects for keeping TCU from doing the same aren’t that good. Home team also has the defensive speed to contain the Air Force option on the perimeter and the inside bulk to clog up the inside. TCU, 36-21.
TUESDAY'S GAME:
LOUISIANA TECH at BOISE STATE*
First-year systems on both sides of the ball for Louisiana Tech, who brings a quick defense that doesn’t fare well when the opponent has a good rushing attack that can push them around between the tackles and open it up for other stuff to work well. Attention La. Tech backers: nothing to eat or drink for six hours – three before kickoff, three after. BOISE STATE, 51-13.
SUNDAY'S GAMES:
PHILADELPHIA at TENNESSEE*
Those Eagles are flying high and it’s one of those rare moments in Philadelphia history when Andy Reid seems to be doing everything right and nothing can go wrong… which is exactly why everything should go wrong, right about now.
The Eagles jumped out to an early lead against the Falcons and took most of the heavy pressure off Kevin Kolb’s shoulders, allowing him to experience his best game of the season. That should ensure that Kolb gets one more start before Philly’s bye week, giving Michael Vick another two weeks to recover from torn rib cartilage. However, it’s going to be a different story on the road for Kolb against a Titans team that leads the NFL in sacks.
Conveniently enough, the Eagles just happen to rank second to last in sacks allowed, and Kolb has only played two-plus games on the road for his career, not looking inspiring at any time. It’s the type of situation where an irrestible force meets an immovable object, with Kolb’s health and safety at stake, not to mention Philly’s won-loss record.
This is the only time the Titans are home between Week 5 and Week 11 – in that time, the Titans have four road games and a bye week. You can be sure that Coach Jeff Fisher, despite coming off a division game on Monday Night Football, will be accentuating to his team the need to play smart football the one week they’ll have support from the crowd over a month and a half. In the ultra-competitive AFC South, a single game can and will make all the difference. TENNESSEE, 30-14.
CLEVELAND at NEW ORLEANS*
The bye week awaits the Browns, and it could not be coming any sooner, with seemingly half of their team injured and unable to suit up. At 1-5 SU, 2-3-1 ATS, it’s amazing enough that Eric Mangini still has his job – perhaps Mike Holmgren’s trigger-finger has slowed down with age. More likely, a loss this week will give Holmgren the extra week to install a new coaching staff and new schemes.
While Colt McCoy acquitted himself as well as one can in an 18-point loss, he now faces a different beast in a domed environment against the defending Super Bowl champions. Cleveland was able to game plan using Peyton Hillis and the check-down passing game against a Steelers team slowly breaking in their newly suspension-free quarterback, and even managed to keep it semi-interesting for three quarters, but now they have to shift from mud-football mode to track-football mode on the carpet of the Superdome.
It’s a battle they are ill-equpped to deal with, especially now that half of their skill position players are dealing with concussions and the Saints offense seems to have been revitalized facing familiar opposition last week. Now the champs get to return home and consolidate their gains against a non-conference opponent just about ready to pack it in on the season. NEW ORLEANS, 27-10.
MONDAY'S GAME:
NY GIANTS at DALLAS*
The Giants have no fear of the Cowboys. They’ve beaten Dallas three times in the last four meetings, scoring 31, 33 and 35 points in the wins against a defense that allowed the fewest points in the NFC last season.
Although you can’t stick a fork in the 1-4 SU Cowboys until they are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, if that even happens, let’s look at the facts as they return home with their backs really, really to the wall and seek to turn things around: Dallas was 2-4 SU against NFC East teams last season, both wins against Washington, when the offense scored only 7 and 17 points. In their only NFC East game so far in 2010, they’ve already lost to Washington while scoring only 7 points.
The Cowboys made the post-season last year by virtue of beating many non-division opponents, but this season the non-division opponents are already 3-1 SU against them. The Giants are beginning to improve defensively under new coordinator Perry Fewell, showing the same kind of nastiness they switched on as soon as they “got it” for then-new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo after a few bad games to start the 2007 regular season.
The 20 points allowed to the Lions might look a little lazy, but after they broke Shaun Hill’s arm, Drew Stanton wasn’t the quarterback they were planning for and they can be excused for being a little soft with him, looking ahead to Romo. NY GIANTS, 27-26.
HOUSTON IS OFF THIS WEEK.
WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE?
Last week's Millionaire games were 4-3 ATS and are now 24-18 ATS (excludes "pushes") for the season.
$ATURDAY'$ GAME$:
NEW MEXICO* (+24) over SAN DIEGO STATE
These teams are on opposite ends of the ATS spectrum – New Mexico at 1-5 and SDSU at 4-1. But – the Lobos are off of a much needed bye week, during which two critical defensive starters got healthy. As coach Locksley put it, it also helped the team to re-focus “on a new season” which consists of their final 6 games.
The Aztecs come off of an emotional 27-25 win over Air Force, SDSU’s first win vs. a Top 25 squad since 1996. Talk of bowls and Top 25 rankings surfaced following the win. Any mention of their next game? Now they gotta shift gears, fly to Albuquerque, and do battle against a team that had an 0-7 record last year when they played in San Diego….a game UNM almost won.
It helps that the Lobos offense is familiar with the Aztecs 3-3-5 defense run by Rocky Long, the guy who was the head coach at New Mexico for over 10 years until he was canned in 2008 and took the D-Coordinator job at SDSU. Long’s defense is built on aggressiveness, so with knowledge of the system and an extra week to prepare, look for the Lobos to hit a few big plays this week – something they haven’t done much of this season.
It was also an unusual week for the Aztecs in that it rained in San Diego Monday through Wednesday….and rained hard. That jacked up their practice schedule a bit. Speaking of weather and location, Albuquerque sits at 5,312 feet above sea level – a bit more than a mile up. San Diego State has already lost outright traveling up in altitude at Salt Lake City, against a BYU team that can’t score. Plus, the local weatherman is calling for potential rain with sub-60 temps for the 7 pm local kickoff, dropping to the high 40s later in the game. Not exactly what the San Diego natives are used to. SAN DIEGO STATE, 30-21.
OHIO STATE* (-23.5) over PURDUE
Bad time to be a Purdue player? A rare, circled revenge game for Ohio State gets added emphasis for the chance to wipe the taste of a nationally televised loss at Wisconsin from their mouths. Purdue had lost five straight going into that aberrational win a year ago, when the Buckeyes were -5 in Turnover Ratio. Now, the Boilermakers have won two in a row, so everyone expects them to be more competitive, right?
Not so fast, my friends. Running quarterback Rob Henry around the field was part of a successful plan against Northwestern and Minnesota. It’s unlikely to be part of a successful plan against the Ohio State defense. Talented defensive athletes shutting down a suddenly “unstoppable” running quarterback not supported by a strong vertical game? Seen that movie before and bought tickets for it early: Texas beating Nebraska last Saturday. OHIO STATE, 42-6.
WISCONSIN at IOWA* (TOTAL UNDER 48)
The weather in the Midwest is going to be as nasty as Charlie Weis in a Speedo with rain, wind, and thunderstorms. With two coaches who emphasize physicality on both sides of the football, any win is a sexy win. Under bright, sunny skies, Wisconsin QB Tolzien and Iowa QB Stanzi are Joe Torre’s under center. In other words, the kids understand their roles as game manager. On a wet field, their respective offensive coaches will not ask them to “make the play”…rather the game plan is to “not make the bad play.”
This week, Iowa coach Ferentz mentioned to a Hawkeye beat writer that “special teams will determine this game.” Translation – field position will determine the game and our punter and coverage units better kick some butt. Iowa’s punter is pretty good – averaging 43 yards per kick, so Ferentz won’t mind using the punt as a defensive weapon to pin the Badgers deep. On the other sideline, coach Bielema – who has an Iowa tattoo on his ankle – has an even better punter who boots it for 44 yards per punt.
Bielema preached this week the same offensive message that he spoke of last week – “Production….efficiency.” Not the sound of a guy who will be running spread sets and trick plays. He also noted that they will do the same things they did last week. So last week was 43 runs and 16 passes. Can you hear that clock turn? Bottom line is that neither offense will have much success going 70+ yards on scoring drives against defenses that rank 25th (Wisconsin) and 12th (Iowa) nationally in opponents third down conversions.
Backing south of the total with a Wisconsin team averaging 36 points per game and an Iowa bunch that racks up 34 points per contest may seem like a death sentence, but here we play the role of UNDER taker and bury your man. IOWA, 20-14.
TEMPLE (-8) over BUFFALO*
Temple was scoring one more point than they allowed prior to meeting Bowling Green last Saturday and guess what? Final score: 28-27, Temple. How’s that for consistency? Now that the world thinks Temple games should be close, how about a comfy win instead?
Before their trip to Northern Illinois, Buffalo had been allowing only 312 yards per game, and logging an impressive 83 plays per game. But NIU gained 441 offensive yards and the play count was 76-59, favoring Northern Illinois. Allegro tempo is nice, but when you’re doing it on three-and-outs against good run defenses like Northern Illinois, and like Temple, then your defense gets murderized on the back end if the opposing offense has a good running game, like Northern Illinois, and like Temple.
As suspected last week, Temple’s suspect pass defense got them in trouble vs. Bowling Green. Buffalo’s passing game isn’t close to being as machine-like. The quarterback has completed only 46.4% of his passes and has already thrown 12 interceptions. TEMPLE, 31-13
SOUTH CAROLINA (-12) vs. VANDERBILT*
Point spread or no point spread….South Carolina is the much, much better football team. As we noted last week, the Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks would suffer a post-‘Bama win letdown and Kentucky’s offense would win the day. Check…and mate.
The Ol’ Ball Coach did some serious post-mortem this week, noting that playing loose zone defense last week was a bad idea. He vowed to get back to a more aggressive/man coverage/pressuring defense this week. Not good news for a Vandy offense that ranks 102nd nationally in total offense, just 3 spots ahead of lowly Western Kentucky. Well – they play decent defense, right? If ranking 75th in total defense – a few spots behind North Texas is decent – then yes.
With the SEC East crown and their first trip to the Georgia Dome still well within their reach, look for Spurrier’s team to come out strong. Super-frosh tailback Lattimore is doubtful with an ankle, but his backup Miles is dynamic enough to keep the offense wide open. Defensively, South Carolina really only needs to worry about zone run plays, and they’ll shut the ‘Dores with a run defense that ranks 16th nationally in yards per carry at 3.02. SOUTH CAROLINA, 31-10.
$UNDAY'$ GAME$
OAKLAND (+8) over *DENVER
Since the opening day loss at Tennessee by the score of 38-13, the Raiders’ score ranges have been “win by 8,” on the good end, “lose by 8” on the bad end, with 1-, 2- and 7-point games in between. They’ve stabilized. Not Stabler-iized. Stabilzed. Losing by 8 points to the previously winless 49ers in their most recent game puts the Raiders on the “I Can’t Bet on That Team,” list for a lot of people, but you can find reasons to put about 14 NFL teams on that list.
Last time they met, the Raiders beat the Broncos in Denver. There was an interesting theme running through that game. Let’s hit the instant replay machine for a look-see, courtesy of the Associated Press:
“…Once again, the Broncos couldn't punch it in from close. They settled for Matt Prater's fourth field goal that made it 19-13 and left the Raiders within a touchdown with less than six minutes left…The Broncos are 11-for-22 in goal-to-go situations this season. This failure hurt the most. "You get down there you've got to score a touchdown," Stokley said. "Those end up coming back and costing you the game.
“…The Broncos were outgained on the ground 241-80, with Michael Bush gashing Denver for 133 yards on 18 carries and Darren McFadden gaining 74 yards on a dozen handoffs."All week we preached going into this game, we knew they have a young quarterback coming in, they don't want to put a lot of pressure on this guy, the running game's going to be big," Holliday said. "They've got a three-headed monster back there [with Justin Fargas]. Big, bruising backs, physical, fast. You've got to know that's going to be a big part of their game plan, make it easy on their quarterback. And we didn't step up and answer the challenge."
What’s different now? Not much. Against Indianapolis a few weeks ago:
“Five times the Broncos (1-2) ventured inside the Colts 20 and five times they failed to get into the end zone, settling for two field goals and turning the ball over on downs three times.”
Against the Jets last Sunday, Denver opened the game with outstanding field position, playing the first quarter with drive starts at the Jets’ 40, the Denver 46, and the Jets’ 47. Yet who scored first? The Jets, in the second quarter, after the Broncos went “Fumble, Punt, Fumble.” Even though it’s the Raiders, Denver will not be getting the same gift-wrapped start to a game. They will be forced to work harder, which, when you can’t get it done the easy way, becomes that much harder to do with success.
The Broncos made a lot of personnel changes in the off-season, but they’re still playing defense with mirrors. The unit has been missing safety Brian Dawkins, cornerback Andre’ Goodman and pass-rushing linebacker Robert Ayers. They are cobbling together a plan every week with only a small margin for error. Also, their offensive line comprises the fewest total number of NFL starts. It shows in the team’s rushing yards per carry: 2.7, lowest in the NFL. When you have to throw the ball all over the field at a line of -8, can’t convert third-and-short and don’t have a lockdown defense, too many bad things can happen.
“Raiders still uncertain about starting quarterback,” said a headline earlier this week. Well, they won here last season with JaMarcus Russell at quarterback. Anybody is an improvement. It’s not really Oakland that is uncertain about the quarterback. They know who they’re targeting to start. It’s Denver who is truly uncertain about it. OAKLAND, 23-19.
BUFFALO at BALTIMORE* (TOTAL UNDER 40)
Buffalo games are averaging +9.3 points greater than the Total this season. What is a team whose offense gains only 251 yards per game doing with scores exceeding the Total by +9.3 Points per game? Good question, no good answer other than, “This should change.”
Buffalo head brain Chan Gailey is an offensive-minded head coach, off a bye week. But, he has very few resources on offense. He can utilize the lack of talent this way and that way and ways never before seen by mankind, and Baltimore’s defense figures to contain and/or stop it. Buffalo has logged an average of only 49 snaps per game, fewest in the NFL since we’ve been tracking it for the last four years.
Like New England last week, Buffalo’s bye week was probably spent configuring a defense that can help them stay in the game. With a bye on deck for Baltimore, this “auto-win” need not be a total kill shot on offense. Their #1 running back Ray Rice has been overworked lately and word is that they will give more carries to the less effective running back, former Buffalo malcontent Willis McGahee. Extra-motivated #2 running back in a “I’ll show them” role. Makes very good sense heading into the bye week. Buffalo’s run defense is rather pitiful: ‘show little, let a guy we’d have no problem trading power us to victory.’ The Ravens’ defense is plenty ticked off about having allowed 20 points in regulation to New England, 10 in the fourth quarter. They will have “shutout” as the goal. BALTIMORE, 27-3.
NEWSLETTER RESULTS!Week #7 (using Crier’s lines):
For those of you who believed in the Crier, you are being rewarded for your loyalty. By playing the newsletter games, your results should have been the same as or close to the Crier's results depending on your lines compared to the Crier's with maybe a 5-10% margin of difference, either way.
In Week #7, the Crier went 16-7 ATS for a profit of 9.8 units. For the first seven weeks of the season, the record is 90-58 (over 60% for the mathematically-challenged) for a profit of 46.6 units:
Week #7 (using Crier’s lines):
Date W/L Team Line Opponent Amt. Of Play Final Score
Oct. 16 W Pittsburgh +1 Syracuse* RP 45-14
Oct. 16 L North Carolina State -7.5 East Carolina* BB 27-33
Oct. 16 W Kentucky* +4.5 South Carolina BB 31-28
Oct. 16 W Mississippi Under 55.5 Alabama* BB 10+23=33
Oct. 16 W Colorado State* -3 UNLV RP 43-10
Oct. 16 L SMU Over 53 Navy* RP 21+28=49
Oct. 16 W Texas +9 Nebraska* BB 20-13
Oct. 16 W Virginia Tech* -22.5 Wake Forest RP 52-21
Oct. 16 W UTEP Under 60 UAB* RP 6+21=27
Oct. 16 L Arizona -24 Washington State* BB 24-7
Oct. 16 L Texas Tech* -3 Oklahoma State SBB 17-34
Oct. 16 W Missouri +3.5 Texas A&M* BB 30-9
Oct. 16 W Southern Mississippi -14.5 Memphis* RP 41-19
Oct. 16 W Rice* +9.5 Houston BB 34-31
Oct. 16 W San Diego State* +1 Air Force RP 27-25
Oct. 17 L Houston* -4.5 Kansas City RP 35-31
Oct. 17 W New England Under 44.5 Baltimore* BB 20+23=43
Oct. 17 W Tampa Bay* Under 43.5 New Orleans RP 31+6=37
Oct. 17 L Chicago* -6 Seattle RP 20-23
Oct. 17 W Miami +7 Green Bay* BB 23-20
Oct. 17 W Pittsburgh* -13.5 Cleveland RP 28-10
Oct. 17 L Denver* +3.5 NY Jets BB 20-24
Oct. 17 W Minnesota -1.5 Dallas* RP 24-21
* - Home team
N - Neutral site
SBB - Super Best Bet (3 units)
BB - Best Bet (2 units)
RP - Regular Play (1 unit)
Week #7
Type of Wager: W-L (excludes “pushes”); Profit/Loss (Cumulative in parentheses)
NFL Results ATS:
Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (0-1 = 0%; -3.3 units)
Best Bets: 2-1 = 66.7%; +1.8 units (10-9 = 52.6%; +.2 units)
Regular Plays: 3-2 = 60%; +.8 units (15-12 = 55.6%; +1.8 units)
Week #7 Totals: 5-3 = 62.5%; +2.6 units (25-22 = 53.2%; -1.3 units)
College Football Results ATS:
Super Best Bets: 0-1 = 0%; -3.3 units (6-1 = 83.3%; +14.7 units)
Best Bets: 5-2 = 71.4%; +5.6 units (27-13 = 67.5%; +25.4 units)
Regular Plays: 6-1 = 83.3%; +4.9 units (32-22 = 59.3%: +7.8 units)
Week #7 Totals: 11-4 = 73.3%; +7.2 units (65-36 = 60.5%; +47.9 units)
Total Combined NFL and College Football Results ATS:
Super Best Bets: 0-1 = 0%; -3.3 units (6-2 = 75%; +11.4 units)
Best Bets: 7-3 = 70%; +7.4 units (37-22 = 62.7%; +25.6 units)
Regular Plays: 9-3 = 75%;+5.7 units (47-34 = 58.0%; +9.6 units)
Week #7 Totals: 16-7 = 69.6%; +9.8 units (90-58 = 60.8%; +46.6 units)
THE CRIER/SR CREW
HMW
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