Written by: SR Crew
Date posted: 10/16/2010
LOCAL GAMES OF INTEREST
Last week's local games were 6-1 SU (33-11 cumulative) and 6-1 ATS (30-14 cumulative), although they were not meant to be wagered on. They were for reading purposes only.
For reading purposes only, below are the SR Crew write-ups on this week's games of local interest:
SATURDAY'S GAMES:
IOWA STATE at OKLAHOMA*
Sooners typically roll lesser Big 12 teams in Norman and this should be no exception. ISU’s secondary was playing on ice skates last week at home vs. Utah because their defensive front got no pressure. Music to the ears of OU QB Jones, who is completing 64% of his throws with an 11/3 TD/INT ratio. Look for a bye-rested Sooners club to get out in front early before going to work on a struggling run game that is averaging just 2.9 yards per carry. OKLAHOMA, 41-20.
BAYLOR at COLORADO*
The Buffs QBs are best when handing the ball off to RB Stewart, so they need to get the lead and play ball control. Run/pass ratio was flipped last week (26/46) and they were shutout at Mizzou. Baylor does a decent job in run defense, but there are yards to be had. Key for the home team is putting their less athletic defense in positions to slow dynamic QB Robert Griffin who can really toss the rock. The Baylor big play offense will have one too many bullets in its gun for a Molly Hatchett “Flirtin’ With Disaster” type Colorado offense. BAYLOR, 27-24.
TEXAS at NEBRASKA*
Last Thursday’s prime time blowout win at Kansas State was the national coming out party for Husker QB Martinez. Kid looked like he was in fast forward while the Wildcats were on pause. Texas crawled into their bye week after losses to UCLA and Oklahoma – so their national persona went from rock star to nerd in two short weeks. All that said – this will be a flat out battle. The Longhorns have a ton of athletes – particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Defensive coordinator Muschamp has two weeks to devise a plan to slow the one dimensional….operative words – one dimensional…Nebraska offense. The Horns are #2 nationally in tackles for loss per game, so you know the kids can get a d-line push. As for the UT offense – QB Gilbert isn’t ready to carry his team – but they will show enough balance to move the chains and eat the clock. TEXAS, 21-20.
BYU at TCU*
Copy and paste Wyoming coach Christensen’s quote after last week’s 45-0 loss to TCU…BYU will need it. “They’re a great football team, and we’re rebuilding. It showed today.” The Cougars trot to Fort Worth with a true freshman QB that has struggled against much lesser defenses. No wonder why BYU ran it 62 times and threw it only 23 vs. SDSU last week. That ratio will ensure one thing this week – a lot of 3rd and longs. TCU, 34-7.
OKLAHOMA STATE at TEXAS TECH* (Please see "Millionare" section below.)
MISSOURI at TEXAS A&M* (Please see "Millionare" section below.)
HOUSTON at RICE*
When a road favorite is passing the ball for almost 180 fewer yards per game than the year before, even Rice will start to look like an intriguing option against that team. The Houston offense is all about warp speed. But when you’re down to the #3 quarterback, a freshman, no matter how good he is, maintaining that tempo is next to impossible unless you’re willing to live with some mistakes along with that tempo, and mistakes lead to fewer points than usual by your team, and more points than usual for the other team. If you are forced to slow things down, then you are no longer the team you were, and the other team doesn’t wear down as readily. Gaining 390 offensive yards per game is nice, but when a team’s power rating is rooted by a 500 yards per game base, the team is probably overvalued. RICE, 27-26.
BOISE STATE at SAN JOSE STATE*
With ’Bama going down last week, there is increased hope of a shot at the title for Boise. They won’t risk getting jumped in the polls again, especially since the team behind them is TCU, the other BCS busting undefeated squad. BOISE STATE, 48-6.
SUNDAY'S GAMES:
KANSAS CITY at HOUSTON*
The Chiefs 3-0 start was fueled by extreme weather, great special teams play and facing a couple of teams that look like bottom scrapers. While they didn’t get embarrassed by the Colts last week, at no point in this season have the Chiefs looked like a competent offense on the field. Matt Cassel does more and more with every game to prove that his stellar season in New England was a by-product of a good system and great teammates. Cassel’s utter lack of pocket presence and his dependence on unreliable playmakers makes the offense an iffy proposition week-after-week, but especially so on the road where they’ve yet to generate an offensive touchdown.
It doesn’t get any easier against a Houston defense that will be looking for redemption after being humiliated by a non-conference opponent at home. While the Texans pass defense is nothing special, they have been effective at stopping the run, which will come in handy against a Chiefs attack that relies on the running game to set the tempo for the entire offense. With Arian Foster hampered by an injured knee suffered against the Colts, Matt Schaub and the now-healthy Andre Johnson will wear down the young Chiefs secondary with passes for four full quarters. HOUSTON, 30-17.
NEW ORLEANS at TAMPA BAY*
Where’s your Super Bowl, now, Saints? It’s the 2010 season, not last year. They stopped being the best team in the NFL two seconds after the Super Bowl ended. Where are the nine defensive touchdowns? Oh, wait, the other team is scoring defensive touchdowns against them now? Gee, what a surprise…Not! In addition to not getting turnovers – check that, not getting enough turnovers - the Saints can't run the ball (NFL’s largest decrease in rushing yardage per game vs. last season), and the absence of Reggie Bush takes away the world’s highest paid decoy that helped the rest of the offense get free.
Struggling teams rarely re-discover any magic away from home. The Saints are 0-for-their division ATS since last year with the exception of one blowout victory against the Bucs (without Reggie Bush), which came at a time when New Orleans was 9-0 and the Bucs were 1-8 and in the often traumatic first season of a new regime, with a vanilla offense that was dead if it fell behind, which it did, a lot. Turn the page, power up and run the ball, have a trick or two ready, don’t turn it over (not easy for Tampa to avoid), don’t mess it up on special teams, and follow that blueprint for beating New Orleans. TAMPA BAY, 17-16.
DALLAS at MINNESOTA*
This stings to admit, but Dallas had us fooled off one stinkin’ win at Houston, which their division-rival New York Giants went out and bettered by 10 points last Sunday. The Cowboys have revenge for a playoff humiliation defeat suffered at Minnesota last season. What has changed since? Not much. Dallas’ offense has more healthy bodies available than in the last meeting, but you wouldn’t know it the way the unit has played overall.
One big change is Randy Moss lining up at wideout for Minnesota, to help stimulate what has been a pretty limp passing game from Brett Favre, and shaft the Cowboys’ suspect pass defense while forcing honesty at the line of scrimmage against the rushing of Vikings’ super-back Adrian Peterson. Vikings get a short week of prep off the Monday nighter vs. the Jets, but Dallas just had two weeks to get ready for Tennessee and got caught with their pants down, figuratively, not literally like Favre allegedly has been. Can Tony Romo and the Dallas offense do enough things right in a noisy dome against a good defense? MINNESOTA, 27-20.
MONDAY'S GAME
TENNESSEE at JACKSONVILLE*
David Garrard is back to resembling an NFL quarterback after throwing up a couple of stinkers and barely holding on to his job, thanks to the worst QB depth chart in the NFL. Still, an ineffective offensive line has struggled to create consistent holes for their best offensive weapon, Maurice Jones-Drew, and will be needed to do a better job for the Jaguars to defend their home turf. MJD has managed to score seven touchdowns in eight games against the Titans, despite less than impressive yardage totals, and Jacksonville did whup the Titans by 20 the last time these two teams played in Florida.
While Tennessee does a good job on defense, Jacksonville is a familiar division rival, giving them a level of comfort when operating against the Titans that other teams lack. The Jaguars have also held their own against Chris Johnson, at least when playing in Florida, and this should end up being one of the close division games where an inferior team outlasts their opponent. JACKSONVILLE, 23-20.
WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE?
Last week's Millionaire games were 3-4 ATS and are now 20-15 ATS (excludes "pushes") for the season.
$ATURDAY'$ GAME$:
MISSOURI (+3.5) over TEXAS A&M* by 14
Texas A&M’s first-season defensive coordinator has been getting improved play, kind of, but the team still loses and doesn’t cover when they play at their own level. A&M and Missouri haven’t met since 2007. The A&M coaching staff entered in 2008. Missouri’s semi-automatic Pistol offense has been doing its thing for quite a while, and represents a big difference in system compared to the last two games, when A&M’s defense got adjusted against and collapsed against Oklahoma State’s quick-pass offense, then got torched early and adjusted too late against Arkansas’ big-pass offense.
After being a play late and dollar short twice in a row, how about not even close the next time? A&M’s offense has turned it over 18 times in the last four games. Missouri will take that, but hopefully won’t need it. A&M just lost to a pair of teams whose offenses were averaging only 27:46 and 26:30 of possession time. If you can score quickly, and play fair to good defense, you can score enough to make a margin on A&M. MISSOURI, 31-17.
TEXAS TECH* over OKLAHOMA STATE by 25
The visiting Pokes are still unbeaten and have been featured in ESPN weekday night games that last two weeks, leading one talking head this week to state that they are the best team in the Big 12 North. Really? Really? Reality is that the Cowboys have played just one road game - against football power Louisiana Lafayette - and their only substance win was at home vs. Texas A&M – where they needed turnover machine Jerrod Johnson to give it over five times in order to inch out a 3-point win at the buzzer.
Now they head to Lubbock, just one week before OSU’s home “showdown” with unbeaten Nebraska. Texas Tech’s offense is getting all lubed up, with QB Potts putting up some big time numbers. Okie State’s pass defense ranks just 82nd in defensive efficiency and they’ll get carved up here like a Thanksgiving turkey.
Cannot scoff at the numbers OSU QB Weeden has amassed, but Tech loves to bring pressure – averaging 3.5 sacks per contest. Weeden struggled big-time in the first half vs. A&M because of the pressure….he’ll get it for a full 60 minutes here. TEXAS TECH, 56-31.
ARIZONA (-24) over WASHINGTON STATE*
Sure – Washington State has covered two straight – we had the cover vs. UCLA two weeks ago as a Midweek Best Bet. In that game, they had UCLA off of a surprise road win at Texas and before a Pac-10 roadie at Cal. Last week, they had an Oregon team that fumbled a first quarter kickoff at the 6, watched as that fumbler – Kenyon Barner – was carted off the field, and proceeded to fumble on two different occasions at the WSU 29 yard-line. Situation ain’t so rosy this week as they get a pissed off Arizona team off of a home loss to Oregon St.
‘Zona’s secondary was beaten badly by the Beavers last week – so there might be some concern here, as the Cougars entire offense is throwing the football. Well, OSU has a nice running game with Jacquizz Rodgers; Washington St. is as one-dimensional as a pre-schooler’s stick figure drawing. This will allow a Wildcats' defense that averages nearly 3 sacks per game to attack an offensive line that has given up 18 sacks this season. Oh yeah – it is likely that the WSU o-line will be without starting right tackle Hannan, who suffered a concussion vs. Oregon. All he has done is start 43 straight games. Life will not be easy for Cougar QB Tuel and we’ll be surprised if he throws anything less than 3 picks on Saturday.
As for the Arizona offense, they’ll be like a hot knife through warm butter. The ‘Cat rushing attack has been decent, but this week they face a defense that hasn’t given up less than 276 yards rushing in any of their three Pac-10 games. Look for road team running back Grigsby to go off this week, which will only open things up for QB Foles – who puts up good numbers against much better teams. The Cougars are giving up an average of 263 pass yards per game, which ranks 108th nationally. Washington State’s ability to be relatively competitive the past two weeks, coupled with Arizona’s failure to cover the last two drive value here. End of the day, Arizona will kick WSU’s collective butts all over the field for 60 minutes. ARIZONA, 52-16.
SMU at NAVY* (TOTAL OVER 53)
Through five games, Navy’s games are averaging a meager 37 points and SMU is coming off of a 21-18 win over offensive-focused Tulsa. So this could be Tim Lincecum vs. Roy Halladay on the gridiron, right? More like a beer league softball game played on a Little League field.
SMU coach June Jones is a “pass first, ask questions later” type guy and his offense is averaging 265 yards passing per game. But Navy has the 3rd ranked pass D in the country you say? Sure – three of their five opponents have attempted 9 passes or less, so it’s no wonder they give up only 141 yards through the air per game. The other two – Louisiana Tech and Wake Forest – had great success chucking it. Wake freshman QB Tanner Price was 37-of-56 for 526 yards last week vs. the Middies. No, not Joe Montana, Tanner Price. And remember the Mustangs 265 yards passing per game….they’ve averaged 376 per contest in their last two games. SMU QB Padron will have no trouble moving the football.
As for other misleading stats – the SMU defense is giving up only 3.3 yards per carry – which should be key against the Navy option attack. Well, of their 6 games, five were against the #4, #5, #10, #23, and #37 ranked teams in pass attempts per game. With a huge C-USA game next week vs. Houston, you can bet that the SMU defense – which was shredded by Navy last year – isn’t throwing all they have into stopping Navy. Defensive coordinator Tom Mason said as much this week: ”The worst thing you can do is try to reinvent something. You have 3 days to get ready for an offense you’re never going to see again.” Sounds like their best defense will be their offense.
Navy QB Dobbs is healthy and the red-zone woes that plagued his club early in the year (7-of-19 getting points in the red zone before last week’s game) seem to be in the rearview. Navy scored 4 TDs in 5 red-zone trips last week and Dobbs noted, “That’s what we worked on all week.” They might do one better this week. NAVY, 38-31.
COLORADO STATE* (-3) over UNLV
“Frankly, they made us look like a not-very-fast, banged up football team, which is kind of what we are,” said UNLV coach Hauck after getting coal-mined, 49-10, vs. West Virginia last week. Sounds encouraging.
The arrow for Colorado St. is pointed in the other direction. The Ram offensive line has improved dramatically the past two games, as evidenced by the 285 yards rushing they put on Air Force last week. The Rebels rank #105 in run D – so look for RB Mason, who had 139 yards last week in his first game back from injury, to fill the stat box again this week. The run game will open things up for freshman QB Thomas and the kid looked pretty good before the run game blossomed. Big reason for that is that the offensive front is protecting the QB.
As for the visitors, first-year coach Hauck is more concerned with building a base for his program than he is winning football games this year. He started five freshmen last week….and may have to get even younger this week. His best WR Payne didn’t make the trip to Morgantown last week after he posted comments on the coaching staff on the Internet. Let’s just say that the comments were not positive. When asked if Payne would play this week, Hauck commented, “The situation is fluid…we’ll see.” Hauck will also be without his best kickoff returner, starting outside linebacker, starting tight end, and starting defensive end – all out with injury. Looks like a nice homecoming Saturday for the home team. COLORADO STATE, 31-20.
$UNDAY'$ GAME$
BALTIMORE at NEW ENGLAND* (TOTAL UNDER 44.5)
Patriots' games are currently averaging +13.8 points more than the Total per game. So, what you’re looking for is some gravity to bring New England back down towards the pack. The gravity is coming, no doubt. The trick is, the gravity doesn’t have to apply itself this week. But the Pats are playing Baltimore, which has a good defense.
New England head coach Bill Belichick said so, and why, on WEEI Sports Radio Network earlier this week: “I think the thing that stands out about Baltimore is just their team defense. They have a lot of great players, a lot of good individual players. They play very well as a team. Everything is well-coordinated. They complement each other well. There’s good communication…there are not many easy plays.”
That defense added one ex-Patriot brain in the off-season when Dean Pees, the New England defensive coordinator from 2006 to 2009, signed on as Linebackers coach for the Ravens. “Dean obviously knows us well. I’m sure he knows our personnel and can help their players and their coaches with some of the strengths and weaknesses of our individual personnel or maybe a particular scheme that we run that he’s familiar with.”
While New England’s bye week gave them an opportunity to cook up something Pees is unfamiliar with, the known fact of Randy Moss’ departure would seem to limit New England offensively, especially against a defense that isn’t chopped liver. Pees knows that Brandon Tate is a possible Moss, and he knows the Deion Branch/Tom Brady deal. The Patriots may get those guys going in the passing game, but probably not with over-the-top results in this particular setting. Brady told the media on Thursday that there is “nothing wrong with dinking and dunking and scoring touchdowns.”
The bye week will have been better for New England’s defense to devise a scheme to limit the amount of big plays that Baltimore has been getting with increasing frequency this season, with the addition of Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmanzedeh to their receiving corps. And, while the Patriots have scored a bunch of special teams TDs this season, it only heightens the awareness of Baltimore’s coverage units, where they normally do a good job. Last season’s two meetings produced 48 and 47 points, good enough to represent a “trend” to many. NEW ENGLAND, 16-15.
PITTSBURGH* (-13.5) over CLEVELAND
Next Wednesday, the University of Texas plans to retire Colt McCoy’s number. Three days earlier, the Steelers’ defense could retire Colt McCoy. With injuries to Cleveland’s first two quarterbacks Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace, both veterans, the rookie McCoy gets thrown to the wolves on the road against one of the NFL’s best defenses. He will not do well.
Of course, there is more to it. Josh Cribbs has been kept under wraps by the Browns. Cribbs will more than likely have a Wildcat package installed for him and the Browns are probably planning to line him up all over the field and get the ball into his hands in a variety of different ways. Sounds good, in theory, with head coach Eric Mangini sitting there in a mouse hole and chuckling to himself about how he’ll run circles around the fat-cat, division-rival Steelers with Cribbs, just like the “hopeless” Miami Dolphins did against New England a couple of years ago when they unveiled the Wildcat.
Couple of problems with that. One of them is that the Steelers hate the Browns, and lost to the Browns for the first time in 12 meetings the last time the teams met. That game was a Week 14 upset last season in freezing, windy conditions off a short week in a Thursday night game when the Pittsburgh defense was very banged-up and Cribbs, a former college quarterback, burned the Steelers for 87 yards rushing out of the formation. The Browns say there is enough variation in the Wildcat for the team to run it the entire game if something happens to McCoy.
But it’s not like the Steelers don’t know it’s coming. They’ve had two weeks to prepare for it (and, all the while, Ben Roethlisberger’s targeted return from suspension was this game. He’s been seeing the Browns’ defense in his sleep for a few months). The Browns are starting Colt McCoy. Of course they’ll be doing something different as well. Yet even with Cribbs’ 87 rushing yards last season, the Browns gained only 255 total offensive yards and scored only 13 points. PITTSBURGH, 33-10.
NEWSLETTER RESULTS!Week #6 (using Crier’s lines):
For those of you who believed in the Crier and are following him by playing the newsletter games, your results should have been the same as or close to the Crier's results depending on your lines compared to the Crier's with maybe a 5-10% margin of difference, either way.
In Week #6, the Crier went 11-10 ATS for a profit of 1.6 units. For the first six weeks of the season, the record is 74-51 ATS for a profit of 36.8 units:
Date W/L Team Line Opponent Amt. Of Play Final Score
Oct. 9 L South Florida* -7 Syracuse RP 9-13
Oct. 9 W North Carolina State* -9.5 Boston College SBB 44-17
Oct. 9 L Clemson +3 North Carolina* BB 16-21
Oct. 9 W Wake Forest* +3.5 Navy BB 27-28
Oct. 9 W UNLV Over 49 West Virginia* RP 10+49=59
Oct. 9 W Missouri* -11 Colorado RP 26-0
Oct. 9 W Virginia Tech* -21.5 Central Michigan BB 45-21
Oct. 9 L Florida* -6.5 LSU BB 29-33
Oct. 9 W Arizona State +1.5 Washington* BB 24-14
Oct. 9 W Arizona State Under 62.5 Washington* RP 24+14=38
Oct. 9 W California* -7.5 UCLA RP 35-7
Oct. 9 W Pittsburgh Under 49.5 Notre Dame* RP 17+23=40
Oct. 9 W Florida State Over 48.5 Miami FL* BB 45+17=62
Oct. 9 L Arizona* -7.5 Oregon State RP 27-29
Oct. 9 L Florida Intl.* -9.5 Western Kentucky RP 28-21
Oct. 10 L Denver +7 Baltimore* RP 17-31
Oct. 10 W Detroit* -3 St. Louis RP 44-6
Oct. 10 L Green Bay -2.5 Washington* BB 13-16
Oct. 10 L New Orleans Under 45 Arizona* RP 20+30=50
Oct. 10 L San Diego -6 Oakland* RP 27-35
Oct. 10 L Dallas* -7 Tennessee BB 27-34
* - Home team
N - Neutral site
SBB - Super Best Bet (3 units)
BB - Best Bet (2 units)
RP - Regular Play (1 unit)
Week #6
Type of Wager: W-L (excludes “pushes”); Profit/Loss (Cumulative in parentheses)
NFL Results ATS
Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (0-1 = 0%; -3.3 units)
Best Bets: 0-2 = 0%; -4.4 units (8-8 = 50%; -1.6 units)
Regular Plays: 1-3 = 25%; -2.3 units (12-10 = 54.5%; +1 units)
Week #6 Totals: 1-5 = 16.7%; -6.7 units (20-19 = 51.3%; -3.9 units)
College Football Results ATS
Super Best Bets: 1-0 = 100%; +3 units (6-0 = 100%; +18 units)
Best Bets: 4-2 = 66.7%; +3.6 units (22-11 = 66.7%; +19.8 units)
Regular Plays: 5-3 = 62.5%; +1.7 units (26-21 = 55.3%: +2.9 units)
Week #6 Totals: 10-5 = 66.7%; +8.3 units (54-32 = 62.8%; +40.7 units)
Total Combined NFL and College Football Results ATS
Super Best Bets: 1-0 = 100%; +3 units (6-1 = 85.7%; +14.7 units)
Best Bets: 4-4 = 50%; -.8 units (30-19 = 61.2%; +18.2 units)
Regular Plays: 6-6 = 50%; -.6 units (38-31 = 55.1%; +3.9 units)
Week #6 Totals: 11-10 = 52.4%; +1.6 units (74-51 = 59.2%; +36.8 units)
SR CREW
HMW
Email: houstonmediawatch@yahoo.com
Blog: http://www.houstonmediawatch.com/
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/lesbiancraig
Facebook Search: HMW Shelton
No comments:
Post a Comment