Written by: The Crier/SR Crew
Date posted: 10/29/2010
LOCAL GAMES OF INTEREST
Last week, local games were 8-4 SU (47-15 cumulative) and 8-4 ATS (42-20 cumulative), although they were not meant to be wagered on. They were for reading purposes only.
For reading purposes only, below are the SR Crew write-ups on this week's games of local interest:
SATURDAY'S GAMES:
BAYLOR at TEXAS*
Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde have nothing on the ‘Horns. Lose to UCLA at home…beat Nebraska on the road….lose to Iowa State at home…guess it’s time for another win over a solid club. Texas had success slowing Texas Tech’s aerial game and the Huskers run game.
Baylor QB Griffin III brings a bit of both to the table. The UT defense excels at getting pressure up front and they don’t give up a lot of big plays. The Bear gunslinger that went for 404 yards passing last week won’t get to 300 this week. Issue is the Longhorn offense that put up 21 points last week vs. an Iowa St. team that had given up 120 points vs. Utah and Oklahoma. Sorry Texas faithful, you’ll be biting those nails again this week. TEXAS, 30-23.
COLORADO at OKLAHOMA*
Word is that CU coach Hawkins could get canned as early as Tuesday of this week. With that floating over the program that has dropped three straight and seen a bunch of starters lost to injury, the arrow is pointing down. Buffs’ fans probably wanted OU to beat Mizzou last Saturday night, as the Sooners typically take out losses on their next opponent with a barrage of offense, especially at home.
QB Landry Jones will have a field day against a Colorado defense that will be without three starters in the secondary and their starting middle linebacker due to injuries. Offensively, CU’s quarterbacks play backyard ball and are typically only productive when (i) they hand the ball off to a running back; or (ii) they hand out Gatorade to the other QB after he turns it over or gives way to the punt team. OKLAHOMA, 52-18.
TEXAS TECH at TEXAS A&M*
A&M starting QB Jerrod Johnson rode pine from the 2nd quarter on last week, but it didn’t seem like he was injured. His backup Ryan Tannehill has been there before and the kid is plenty productive. Tech has their QB in Clay Potts, but this is a jellyfish team, floating its way through Year 1 of the Tuberville era. A&M’s offensive and defensive stats are solid. They just need to hold onto the ball. At home, with Tannehill waiting in case Johnson plays Santa Claus with the football, A&M gets the win. TEXAS A&M, 31-24.
HOUSTON at MEMPHIS*
List all the possible reasons for liking Memphis – home dog, off a bye week, with revenge for a 55-14 loss last season, Houston starting one of two freshmen quarterbacks – then draw a line through them all. A bad, young team in a first-season coaching transition specializes in beating itself and its backers. The 400 Yards Per Game Club defense doesn’t make enough stops or get enough turnovers against better-than-average offenses to give their anemic offense a shot to keep pace. HOUSTON, 38-20.
TCU at UNLV*
From a voter’s perspective, TCU needs to come close to or beat the Vegas number each week if they want a shot at the BCS crown come January. The Rebels will offer as much resistance as an umbrella in a Hurricane – so, it shouldn’t be too tough for the Horned Frogs to be smiling in the BCS picture. TCU, 42-7.
SUNDAY'S GAMES:
JACKSONVILLE at DALLAS* (Please see "Millionaire" games below.)
TENNESSEE at SAN DIEGO*
If it’s not one thing, it’s another. After not being a problem in the preceding years of Norv Turner’s coaching tenure, turnovers and special teams have become enormous problems for the Chargers, and only a meager set of competitors in the AFC West provides them with any hope of even dreaming of a playoff spot.
Now a very difficult Titans team comes to San Diego, not for the weather, but to continue their winning ways against a Chargers team dealing with both injuries and misfortune. Tennessee is 2-2 SU, ATS in games played in the Pacific time zone since 2006, but their two wins and covers came against Seattle and San Francisco while both losses came to none other than the Chargers, including a loss in the 2007 AFC Wild Card game.
Even with Antonio Gates hampered and both of his starting wideouts on the sidelines, Philip Rivers continues his ascent towards most profilic QB in the NFL, racking up completions and passing yards at a record setting pace. Luckily for him, Tennessee boasts a middle-of-the-pack pass defense that allows 230 yards per game through the air, despite having faced Oakland, Pittsburgh (with Charlie Batch), and Jacksonville.
In the one game the Titans played on the road against a pass-happy quarterback, Tony Romo threw for 406 yards. If the Chargers can maintain the clubhouse amidst the adversity, they stand a good chance of putting together a run, starting this week. SAN DIEGO, 27-19.
PITTSBURGH at NEW ORLEANS*
The Steelers might show Drew Brees what a real defense would have done to him in the Super Bowl. Although it’s a non-conference road game and second of three straight road games for 5-1 SU Pittsburgh, which has a double-revenge division game vs. Cincinnati on deck, the 4-3 SU, 1-5-1 ATS Saints have their own division game on deck with Carolina and the Saints really aren’t the Saints this season.
Running back injuries have contributed to a drastic decrease in rushing yardage vs. last season, when balance was a blessing for New Orleans. Now, although Drew Brees is passing for only 2 fewer yards per game vs. last season, his Yards Per Attempt is down by a full yard, and he has had to throw it five times more per game to reach that total. With more passes have come more interceptions, which is something that New Orleans’ defense isn’t getting as many of this season after acquiring the most turnovers in the NFL a year ago.
Struggling offenses rarely re-discover themselves against good defenses. Soft run defenses like New Orleans’ rarely withstand four quarters of pounding from good rushing attacks like Pittsburgh’s. The Steelers leaned on RB Rashard Mendenhall during Ben Roethlisberger’s four-game suspension, and wanted to reduce his workload given the long season and the passing game’s re-birth with Big Ben.
Mendenhall got some series off last week, and was met in the backfield by a Miami defensive player many times as the Dolphins dared Roethisberger to beat them with his arm, which he did. Roethlisberger's success should re-introduce running lanes for Mendenhall. PITTSBURGH, 31-20.
MONDAY'S GAME:
HOUSTON at INDIANAPOLIS*
Gary Kubiak finally broke his personal losing streak to Indianapolis in the first week of the season, starting off Houston’s year with a bang. However, if you paid attention that week, you’d know the game played much closer than the 34-24 final score.
Now these AFC South rivals face each other after their respective bye weeks, but keep in mind that Kubiak is only 1-3 SU after the bye during his tenure as Texans head coach – with that lone victory coming in 2007. Houston’s slow climb to respectable mediocrity has shrunk this line from the double digits it used to be a couple of years ago, which makes the Colts a more interesting buy than usual, under these circumstances.
While Indy hasn’t solved their run defense problems, they’ve at least stabilized since Arian Foster ran through them in the opener, and let’s not forget that Houston at 4-2 is something of a paper tiger. Dallas Clark’s season-ending injury robs Peyton Manning of his favorite receiver, but Manning excels at breaking in new pass catchers; for example, who’d heard of Blair White before two weeks ago? With the division lead at stake, look for Manning to continue with his usual regular season dominance, motivated by a small measure of revenge. INDIANAPOLIS, 36-27.
WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE?
Last week's Millionaire games were 5-2 ATS and are now 29-20 ATS (excludes "pushes") for the season.
$ATURDAY'$ GAME$:
UAB at SOUTHERN MISS* (TOTAL OVER 54)
Off their bye week, Southern Miss head coach Larry Fedora says, “We're anticipating getting six or seven guys back, so that's going to be key for us." Several of them are good receivers, so UAB’s usual lousy pass defense (more than 8.0 yards allowed per attempt) should be in effect. If they can keep their own quarterback Bryan Ellis in one piece and not have to resort to using David Isabelle, UAB might have some back-door capabilities. You can expect a very high scoring game here. SOUTHERN MISS, 48-34.
AKRON at TEMPLE (UNDER 48.5)
Temple can pretty much name their score against the zipless Zips. But given Temple’s tough schedule leading up to this, and bigger fish to fry down the line as the Owls eye match-ups vs. Ohio and Miami-OH in November, Al Golden might want to name the score 24-0 in as few snaps as possible, play second-stringers in the second half, and move on with a “W” without incident or consequences. TEMPLE, 27-0.
IOWA* (-6.5) over MICHIGAN STATE
ESPN may get into the Sitcom biz with “I Dream of Sparty” because there must be some blonde out there granting the MSU faithful wish after wish. Fake field goal TD vs. Notre Dame to win; fake punt vs. Northwestern spurring a victory, winning the turnover battle week-in and week-out.
Don’t get us wrong, they’ve played good football. But the smoke and mirrors part of their act catches fire and breaks into a million pieces this week. Michigan State has thrived on takeaways this year – ranking 8th nationally by generating 20 turnovers. But the Hawkeyes are the Smith Barney of college football. They make their opponents earn it. Iowa has turned it over only 5 times all season, which ranks #2 in all the land. Those short fields just won’t be there for Michigan State.
But Sparty can move the ball anyways you say? Well, Dantonio’s bunch ranks just 74th nationally in third down conversions – sandwiched between BYU and Buffalo – not exactly two offensive powerhouses this year. As for the Iowa D, they rank 20th in stopping opponents from converting on third down.
On the other side of the ball, the Iowa natives are converting third downs at a 52% clip, good for 10th nationally. Look for the Hawkeyes to power run the football with success, opening up the underrated passing attack. Given the Spartans’ lack of depth and experience in the secondary, could be a long day for those guys. Don’t expect Iowa to bust out of the gates with a 21-0 first quarter lead, but as the game wears on, Iowa’s ability to get the Spartan offense off the field and to keep the defense on it, will wear the visitors out. IOWA, 33-14.
SAN DIEGO STATE (-10) over WYOMING*
SDSU won’t need Tony Robbins before this one. They’ll have plenty of motivation. But first – the football stuff. Wyoming is just plain terrible on offense. How terrible you ask?
Last week – in a game that they somehow managed to score 20 points, the Cowboys had three plays for positive yards in the first half in racking up…or down….minus-18 yards. Yet they scored 10 points in that half via a pick-6 and a short-field 3-pointer after a drive that netted negative seven yards. They scored 20 for the game and covered the number, but their offensive performance left coach Christensen saying, “We’ve got to punt the ball and cover the ball.” Sounds like a productive offensive philosophy.
It should come as no surprise that Wyoming ranks dead last nationally in total offense. They don’t have the luxury of playing a comatose offense this week, as the Aztecs can hand the ball to super-frosh tailback Hillman or ask QB Lindley to hit two receivers that will be playing on Sundays. Considering that the home team gives up more rushing yards per contest than 118 of the 120 D-1 schools, either option should be pretty wide open. For a home team that doesn’t have the personnel to move the football, falling behind early isn’t in the winning formula.
As for SDSU, they are a last-minute TD at Missouri and a botched fumble call at BYU from being 7-0. But – at 5-2, the Aztecs can hit the bowl eligible water mark this week for the first time in seven years. That was coach Brady Hoke’s first goal when he came in two years ago: get this team to a bowl game and go from there.
It was also this same Wyoming team that came from 27-6 down in San Diego last year to win 30-27…pushing Hoke’s bunch to 4-5 and pretty much out of the bowl picture. Mr. Robbins….paging Mr. Robbins….you will not be needed in Laramie, WY, this week….at least not in the visitors’ locker room. SAN DIEGO STATE, 37-14.
WESTERN MICHIGAN* (+8.5) over NORTHERN ILLINOIS
McDonald’s special with this Big MAC contest that will give the winner a great shot at the MAC West.
NIU is the best in-conference defense that WMU has faced, but the Broncos’ passing attack is nice and lubed – averaging 352 passing yards in their last 3 MAC games. QB Carder is a solid play-maker who has thrown 15 TDs and run for 6. Playing from in-front or from behind, the kid is comfortable sitting in the pocket and making throws.
NIU is more balanced on offense and will score some points, how else do you explain their 6-0 record ATS in their last six? That said, the home team here can move the football and counter scores, unlike the Huskies’ last two opponents, Central Michigan (23 ppg) and Buffalo (16 ppg). The guys in the desert were generous here, giving WMU a TD+ against a team that has blown out bad teams at home recently, but that hasn’t had a road game since October 2. Whaddya know – Western hasn’t had home cookin’ since October 2. WESTERN MICHIGAN, 28-27.
FLORIDA (+2) over GEORGIA (at Jacksonville, FL)
UGA is on a three-game heater while the Gators are just crapping out, dropping three straight. First, let’s put the Dawgs winning streak in perspective. Each of those wins was against teams with first-year head coaches. Tennessee and Kentucky were revenge games for losses last year in which UGA was +3 in turnover margin in each. The Vanderbilt win….well….it was Vanderbilt.
The Gators entered a much needed bye week that allowed QB Brantley to catch his breath, starting RB Demps to get healthy, and previously suspended RB/WR Rainey to get back on the field. A few years back when the Florida offense was sputtering, Urban Meyer tweaked the offense significantly during the bye week leading up to the Georgia game. Expect him to change things up enough to keep the Dawgs 3-4 scheme off balance and to allow his play-makers to make plays.
On defense, the Gators have a ton of athletes in the secondary and they’ll bracket WR A.J. Green and make somebody else beat them. Remember the first four games when Green was suspended….the Georgia faithful wish they could forget. FLORIDA, 34-20.
$UNDAY'$ GAME$
DALLAS* (-7) over JACKSONVILLE
Wow, this is a “come full circle, seen this movie before” game. Seems like only yesterday that Cowboys’ #1 quarterback Tony Romo made the first start of his NFL career against the Carolina Panthers, coming off a relief performance in which he threw three second-half interceptions against the Giants on Monday Night Football in a home loss. Romo had replaced the awful Drew Bledsoe in that Monday night defeat, which was followed by much Cowboys-bashing.
The Cowboys were +5.5 underdogs vs. Carolina and won the game by a mile. The media had done a wonderful set-up job for that one, honing in on a stunned Cowboys’ head coach Bill Parcells in the post-game press conference when Parcells stared straight ahead into space and apologized to America for his team’s performance. It gave the impression that Dallas was dead. Impressions can be very impressionable.
In the post-game presser on Monday Night, current Cowboys head coach Wade Phillips looked as if somebody had handed him a gun, he’d have gladly pointed it at his head, pulled the trigger and ended his misery. The reality of the situation is that Phillips cranky-talks his way to the bank and deposits a very nice paycheck that the owner is obligated to pay him, and everyone else under contract.
They work hard for the money and will continue to work hard for the money. At midnight on a Tuesday morning, the entire team is spent from the culmination of another week’s work. Wade Phillips – and anyone else in America who doesn’t usually work nights, especially those aged 60+ - wants and needs to go beddy-bye at midnight on Tuesday morning. But Phillips has an obligation to answer dumb questions posed by insignificant microphone- and pen-holders for the purpose of holding up their end of the dog and pony show that the public buys into. Questions like, “How frustrating it is…?” So Phillips auto-pilots his way through, “Romo, blah-blah-blah, hurt, Kitna, rusty, blah-blah-blah, we didn’t make plays, blah-blah-blah,” and everything seems lost again going into the next game.
Kitna has a pretty bad reputation among football followers. On these pages, he has been “Kitna the Klown” many times. He has been the starting quarterback on lousy Seattle, Cincinnati, and Detroit teams in what seems like a too-long career. But if the qualified people within the Dallas organization didn’t think the guy could step in and play a decent game for them when necessary, he wouldn’t be on the roster.
Kitna, trying to operate the established game plan tailored for Romo against the Giants’ defense after coming in cold, while the Dallas defense was trying to stop a Giants’ offense it hadn’t stopped in a while? Two shots – slim, and none. Kitna, with a new game plan tailored for him, against an opponent that doesn’t win battles at the line of scrimmage on either side of the ball anywhere close to often as the Giants do, while operating within the framework of the team with better overall talent? You have to say that “he” has a pretty good shot. Actually, it’s him and 40-something other guys, but you get the idea.
What the heck has Tony Romo ever done for Dallas? Has anyone ever stopped to consider that the Cowboys might have been a better team all along if somebody else had been backing up Drew Bledsoe at the time Bledsoe turned into a pumpkin?
Jacksonville’s defense just gave up 425 yards and 42 points to Kansas City’s offense and Matt Cassell only had to throw 18 times for the Chiefs to get to those numbers. You know that Jacksonville allows 24+ on the road before they even get off the plane. Their own #1 quarterback David Garrard has been hit more than anyone else in the NFL over the last year-and-a-half and is returning from a concussion. They couldn’t protect his back-up from being injured, and the back-up to the back-up hurt got hurt last Sunday. Garrard and Trent Edwards are back practicing this week, whoop-dee-doo.
“Conventional” wisdom suggests that the 1-5 SU Cowboys, off a short week, are in desperate need of more time before being able to right the ship. When the Tennessee Titans were 0-5 SU last season in the week before their bye, they had to travel to New England to play a very good opponent and lost 59-0. (The Titans then won five straight and seven out of eight after their bye and were contending for the playoffs in December, but let’s not get ahead of the deal here. Yet who did Tennessee snap that losing streak against? Yes, oh yes, Jacksonville, by 17 points, coinciding with a quarterback change.
Dallas has other injuries besides Romo, a nice diversion to prompt kicking while they’re down by the ‘Dallas is dead’ crowd. Other guys will be happy for the opportunity to step in and play well. DALLAS, 35-16.
GREEN BAY at NY JETS* (TOTAL UNDER 42)
The Packers are off a short week and a big win after a physical struggle vs. division-rival Minnesota. The Jets are off a bye. The Jets have been allowing more points than you’d expect last season’s #1-ranked AFC defense to be allowing, with 23-, 20- and 20-point yields vs. Miami, Minnesota, and Denver. It’s a defense with personnel that can hold teams to 17-and-under in the right circumstances. Therefore, that’s the focus of the bye week.
The last thing they want to do is get involved in an offensive shootout with Mark Sanchez pointing the gun at his own team, vs. Aaron Rodgers and the better-than-average Green Bay pass offense. Best way to do that? Come out and run the ball early, often, and successfully against a Packers’ defense that is shaping up to be without three of their top four defensive linemen and two of their four starting linebackers. B.J. Raji might have to go without a blow at nose tackle for the Packers.
With one of the NFL’s best run-blocking offensive lines going up against a tired, banged-up defensive front seven coming off a short week, Rex Ryan would have to be a complete, unadulterated idiot not to have seen this set-up coming when the schedule came out, and now it manifests itself before the coaching staff’s very eyes.
The fewer plays the Jets snap, the more they keep in their arsenal for the second half of the season, which has yet to begin. On defense, the Jets are known for blitzing, but they saw how slightly out-of-kilter the Packers receivers and Rodgers are by watching the Monday Night game against a Minnesota defense that doesn’t blitz and had injuries in the secondary. The Jets won’t have to blitz on every down, and the Packers will hit some pass plays like they usually do. But between the 20s, and that’s about it. NY JETS, 23-9.
NEWSLETTER RESULTS! Week #8 (using Crier’s lines):
For those of you who believed in the Crier from Week #1, you continue to be rewarded for your loyalty. By playing the newsletter games, your results should have been the same as or close to the Crier's results depending on your lines compared to the Crier's with maybe a 5-10% margin of difference, either way.
In Week #8, the Crier went 15-7 ATS for a profit of 8.9 units. For the first eight weeks of the season, the record is 105-65 (over 60% for the mathematically-challenged) for a profit of 55.5 units:
Week #8 (using Crier’s lines):
Date W/L Team Line Opponent Amt. Of Play Final Score
Oct. 23 W Connecticut Under 57 Louisville* RP 0+26=26
Oct. 23 W Temple -8 Buffalo* BB 42-0
Oct. 23 L Wisconsin Under 48 Iowa* BB 31+30=61
Oct. 23 W Penn State Over 50 Minnesota* RP 33+21=54
Oct. 23 W Ohio State* -23.5 Purdue RP 49-0
Oct. 23 L Northwestern* +6.5 Michigan State BB 27-35
Oct. 23 W South Carolina -11 Vanderbilt* RP 21-7
Oct. 23 W Arkansas* -10 Mississippi BB 38-24
Oct. 23 W Nebraska -6 Oklahoma State* BB 51-41
Oct. 23 W LSU Under 51.5 Auburn* RP 17+24=41
Oct. 23 L Utah State* +3.5 Hawaii RP 7-45
Oct. 23 W Virginia* -24 Eastern Michigan RP 48-21
Oct. 23 L Eastern Michigan Under 55.5 Virginia* BB 21+48=69
Oct. 23 W Georgia -4 Kentucky* RP 44-31
Oct. 23 W New Mexico* +23.5 San Diego State BB 20-30
Oct. 24 W Tennessee* -1.5 Philadelphia BB 37-19
Oct. 24 W Washington +1.5 Chicago* RP 17-14
Oct. 24 L Baltimore* -13 Buffalo RP 37-34
Oct. 24 L Buffalo Under 40 Baltimore* RP 34+37=71
Oct. 24 W Carolina* +3 San Francisco RP 23-20
Oct. 24 L Arizona +6.5 Seattle* BB 10-22
Oct. 24 W Oakland +8 Denver* BB 59-14
* - Home team
N - Neutral site
SBB - Super Best Bet (3 units)
BB - Best Bet (2 units)
RP - Regular Play (1 unit)
NP - Nickel Play (.5 units)
Week #8
Type of Wager: W-L (excludes “pushes”); Profit/Loss (Cumulative in parentheses)
NFL Results ATS:
Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (0-1 = 0%; -3.3 units)
Best Bets: 2-1 = 66.7%; +1.8 units (12-10 = 54.5%; +2 units)
Regular Plays: 2-2 = 50%; -.2 units (17-14 = 54.8%; +1.6 units)
Week #8 Totals: 4-3 = 57.1%; +1.6 units (29-25 = 53.7%; +.3 units)
College Football Results ATS:
Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (6-1 = 83.3%; +14.7 units)
Best Bets: 4-3 = 57.1%; +1.4 units (31-16 = 66.0; +26.8 units)
Regular Plays: 7-1 = 87.5%; +5.9 units (39-23 = 62.9%: +13.7 units)
Week #8 Totals: 11-4 = 73.3%; +7.3 units (76-40 = 65.5%; +55.2 units)
Total Combined NFL and College Football Results ATS:
Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (6-2 = 75%; +11.4 units)
Best Bets: 6-4 = 60%; +3.2 units (43-26 = 62.3%; +28.8 units)
Regular Plays: 9-3 = 75%; +5.7 units (56-37 = 60.4%; +15.3 units)
Week #8 Totals: 15-7 = 68.2%; +8.9 units (105-65 = 61.8%; +55.5 units)
THE CRIER/SR CREW
HMW
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